Calling Out 2004 World Champion Greg Raymer

As I did in the National Heads-Up Poker Championship in 2005, I won my first-round match and was on to round two. In 2005, I lost to Antonio Esfandiari when he flopped top set and I had the nut-flush draw. I decided to play a big pot, which in the end was a serious mistake.



This year, I was determined to avoid repeating that mistake in round two. This time, my round-two opponent was none other than 2004 World Series of Poker Champion Greg Raymer. Before my match against Raymer, I made sure to go over the tapes that I collect for study purposes, looking for anything I could pick up.



Going into the match, I had very little experience playing against Greg, so I wanted to make sure that I did everything I could to prepare myself. After watching the tapes, I came away with the fact that Greg certainly has a lot of guts and is more than willing to go with a read. If he believes a bluff might work, he is fearless enough to risk it all on one hand.

That's a dangerous player to play, because he'll force you to guess, which can lead to errors. I spent a lot of time thinking about how I wanted to play it, what message I wanted to send him, and how I would look to exploit it.



Now, the cards will often have a lot to do with what types of traps you set, but going in, my goal was to get Greg to try to run a bluff at the wrong pot when I had the nuts. In order to set that up, I made a couple of marginal calls against him on the flop and the turn. He checked the river, and I won the pot while not having to face a tough decision on the river.



Then, the following hand came down: With the blinds at $600-$1,200, Greg raised from the button to $3,600. I called from the big blind with the J 7. The flop came K J 2. I checked, as I'd been doing all match long, and he also checked.



The turn card was the 8, and I checked one more time. This time, Greg took a stab at the pot, betting $5,000. I wasn't at all sure what he had at that point, but I figured that calling with second pair in this situation was pretty standard – so I called.



The river brought the 2. I checked, hoping that Greg would check it down and I'd pick up a nice pot and extend my lead. Greg quickly said, "All in," and pushed the rest of his chips in, $25,800.



Now, if you'll remember, my goal against Greg was to get him to bluff at me when I had the nuts. Well, second pair on that board was hardly the nuts! When you are playing heads up, though, with escalating blinds, you might never see the nuts. Something in my subconscious was yelling at me to call. Before I made an impulsive decision, though, I made sure that I went over the situation so that I understood the impact of the call.



The first thing that crossed my mind was what kind of shape I'd be in if I called and lost. I had a slight lead before the hand, so if I called and lost, I'd be down to $9,200, while Greg would have a commanding lead with $70,800.



Yikes, that wasn't good.



The second thing that went through my mind were the possible hands that Greg could have to bluff in this situation. On the turn, there was a flush draw and several straight draws present. I could beat all of those hands.



Next, I had to look at the hands I couldn't beat, and try to figure out if they made sense. I couldn't beat a K, K-K, A-A, A-J, or trip deuces. If he held any of those hands, I was doomed.



So, the next thing that went through my mind was whether or not his betting patterns coincided with one of those hands. If he had one of those hands, would he bet it all? That seemed unlikely, but I couldn't rule it out. If he had one of those hands, would he check the flop? Again, that seemed unlikely. Did he get lucky on the river and hit trips? Well, for that to be true, he would have had to raise preflop with a deuce in his hand and check the flop – an unlikely parlay.



I was cramming my brain with information, but all of it took a back seat to my subconscious in the end. My conscious mind was telling me, "You don't need to call this bet. It's too big, and if you fold, you'll be pretty much even in the match."



After going through the information I had in the hand, it eventually was a battle of my subconscious and conscious minds. Here is a tip that will help your poker game immensely: Trust your subconscious mind, as it's more educated and accurate than you could ever imagine.



If your gut instincts are telling you that your opponent is bluffing and there isn't undeniable evidence to the contrary, trust your gut.



I trusted my gut and made the call. Greg didn't look too happy about it as he turned over the 10 5 for no pair and no draw. He took a stab at the pot on the turn, read weakness in my call, and then made a very gutsy bet on the river, trying to take the whole pot.



It's a bet that is going to work a high percentage of the time, and is likely one of the reasons Greg has been able to do so well at the WSOP the last two years. Not only was he able to recognize weakness, but he also had the guts to follow through and make the play.



I don't think he made a bad play at all. I think it was a highly sophisticated play. Luckily, I trusted Old Faithful, my instincts, and was able to counter the play by making the call. There is no question that watching the tapes before the match helped train Old Faithful, preparing me to make the call.



I won the match and was now on to the round of 16 to face off against my next opponent, T.J. Cloutier. Read about that match in the next issue.



You can read Daniel's blog or play poker with him at http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/.