My Fab 52 Players to Watchby Lee Munzer | Published: Jun 27, 2006 |
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Last year I selected 100 players for my World Series of Poker (WSOP) watch list. Based on the subjective criteria that I established, I omitted several former world champions and many others who, given a good run of cards, had excellent potential to walk off with the most prestigious prize in poker.
This year, I decided to crawl another few feet out on the poker player prognostication limb by limiting my list to just 52 competitors, the top cards in my tournament player deck of thousands. Alas, to make way for our rising stars, more veteran greats (some with incredible achievements) must be dislodged from last year's list, including Chris Bigler, Humberto Brenes, T.J. Cloutier, Dan Harrington, Mel Judah, Howard Lederer, Chip Reese, and Dewey Tomko. What? Dan, Dewey, T.J., and "The Professor" to the muck? Yes, folks, I like living on the edge of crystal-ball gazing. And remember, the selections are simply one man's opinion.
Here are the parameters that I'll use to select the Fab 52 for 2006:
Recent performance: I handicap sporting events and financial markets fairly well. How a tennis player, a team, a horse, or a security has performed lately is a crucial factor in predicting near-term performance for technical and fundamental reasons. Thus, I paid close attention to recent tournament results, believing a player in great form will be buoyed by table image and possess added confidence.
Conditioning: In 2005, Scott Lazar (age 42) was the senior member of the championship final table. The magician and film-crew veteran took sixth place and $1.5 million. The WSOP open events commence on June 27 this year. The championship final table will take place on Thursday, Aug. 10 at noon. That's more than six weeks of play. At times, especially in preliminary events, participants will endure 12-hour working days, attempt to fall asleep at sporadic hours (with hands and decisions running through their brains), and either commute or sleep in strange beds. This is not the type of stuff that makes for a well-rested competitor. The harder the conditions, the more a combatant's physical conditioning comes into play. By my calculation, the $10,000 final event will stretch to 14 days in 2006. This assumes that an anticipated 8,000 players will start in four flights from July 28 through July 31, and all will get a day off on Aug. 3. While the main event's hours of play per day appear to have been reduced from previous years, the overall duration for the event has increased substantially. Putting all the changes in perspective, I chose players who are in relatively good physical shape (with a few exceptions), and those who I believe will be able to maintain mental sharpness over the fortnight.
Overcoming huge fields: Some players adapt to huge-field play better than others because players have unique comfort zones, and they struggle when forced to expand them. I will factor in how candidates might react to required strategy adjustments when facing an enormous number of competitors – many of whom play erratically. I will favor aggressive players and devalue "solid" and "survivor" types.
Intangibles: Along with general playing ability and situational playing proficiency (acclimating to changing structures, reading opponents' propensities/tells, and adjusting to relative chip counts), some of the traits I'll consider in each player are heart, determination, temperament, tendency to capitalize on table image, and capacity to pay attention for extended periods of time. Some (for example, Phil Hellmuth Jr. and Mike Matusow) are short on one or more of these characteristics (temperament, in their cases), but extremely long in several other categories (Phil and Mike play hands very well, are determined, and are strong on reading competitors).
You may have noticed that several of the four categories overlap. Conditioning affects focus. When tired, being highly observant for vast periods of time is most difficult. Overcoming huge fields in a slow-moving blind structure is obviously an endurance test. For these reasons, I believe recent performance, conditioning, overcoming huge fields, and the designated intangibles work synergistically to uncover 52 top tournament players, my selections to go deep in 2006.
In addition to listing the players and providing a brief scouting report on each, I have asterisked nine candidates (my projected final table) and forecasted the winner. The fair betting line (incorporating the four parameters above) on each of my nine asterisked combatants to reach the final table would average approximately 275-to-
1. Thus, being realistic, I would consider my handicapping to be a success if one of my selections had chips on the final day of play.
Here are my top 52 players to watch in the 2006 WSOP championship (shown alphabetically, with asterisks denoting final-table selections):
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Patrik Antonius: This 25-year-old won tournaments in Sweden and Austria in 2005. He cashed three times at the WSOP, and 11 times overall (including a $1,046,470 score at the Five-Diamond World Poker Classic for his second-place finish). I watched the Helsinki, Finland, player push chips for three days at the WPT Championship this past April. He came in 17th out of 605 players by demonstrating an aggressive, fearless style. With four years' experience as a print and catalog model, the cameras will be transparent to his play. As a former professional tennis player, the arduous journey of the 2006 WSOP main event will not be problematic. This confident player prides himself on physical and mental conditioning. He has shown a propensity to accumulate chips early in major events. The 2005 European Player of the Year is a strong leadoff batter for my 2006 list.
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Josh Arieh: The 31-year-old Atlanta-based player has 13 years' experience. Arieh has garnered a WSOP bracelet along the way, and thanks to ESPN being the king of reruns, it has been hard to miss Josh's play and antics in the 2004 main event when he finished third. Arieh's bad-boy reputation is due partially to ESPN's editing and partially to Josh's competitive nature, a positive trait. His inclination to stay close to his family has led to less touring during the last two years, but he reportedly plays many online events, and his live-tournament batting average has always been top-notch. Arieh, a former pool hustler, can handle pressure well and will put heat on his opponents in 2006.
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Farzad Bonyadi: In 2005, "Freddy" earned $1,006,639 in tournament play, including his third bracelet and $594,960 (only 25 players have more WSOP jewelry) when he defeated 1,055 players in a $2,500 event. This California-based no-limit hold'em specialist (his last 19 cashes have been in such events) is experienced, conditioned to large-field play, aggressive, and fearless. Bonyadi is one of the most intimidating players one will face from a visual perspective.
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Doyle Brunson: Can a game possibly have a more iconic figure than this 72-year-old legend? Trimmer in the last few years, the most famous poker player in history captured his 10th WSOP bracelet in 2005, and he has won the main event twice. In 2004, "Texas Dolly" defeated a relatively large field (666 opponents) when he captured the Legends of Poker, a World Poker Tour (WPT) event. I believe the Hall of Famer's aggressive style and great reading ability will overcome the fatigue factor in 2006. Opponents like to go up against the former hoopster who was once drafted by the Minneapolis Lakers. I suppose young players want to be able to say they took a big pot from the greatest. Getting action leads to busting out or accumulating big stacks. The latter is a necessity when 8,000 players leave the starting gate.
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Joe Cassidy: "Young Joe" eschewed his pre-law education for a poker career. So far, so good. The Huntington Beach resident has done well in high-stakes cash games and moved seamlessly into major tournaments (garnering more than $500,000 in tourney earnings over the last 20 months). The clean-cut aggressor is unflappable (picture the antithesis of a poker brat), fearless, and focused. Now in his mid-20s, Joe is slim and should benefit from a protracted event. Cassidy is a future star, and rates to do very well in the 2006 championship.
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Johnny Chan: Usually dressed flamboyantly from the waist up, the father of six, part-time author, and cameo actor (Rounders) plays thoughtfully. "The Orient Express" has 10 WSOP bracelets (including main event wins in 1987 and 1988), possesses inordinate reading capability (T.J. Cloutier rates him the best at undressing opponents' hands), and has a lifetime of experience. Can the 5-foot-6-inch Canton, China, native who enjoys swimming, pocket billiards, and bowling whip a huge field? While I give several of the young money movers a better shot, it would be foolhardy to underestimate this established star. Johnny is adept at shifting gears and diversifying his game based on situational circumstances.
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* Allen Cunningham: Can a player dominate a table and be successful in the long run without fostering a lick of fear factor? The answer is yes, based on this star's superior results. Quiet and comfortable to play with, he takes opponents' chips a high percentage of the time. Allen was ticketed for an engineering degree, but left UCLA early to turn pro. His decision reaped immediate rewards when he won six major tournaments before age 23. He cashed 17 times in 2004, and picked up almost $1.9 million in tournament proceeds last year (including WSOP bracelet number three). The reigning ESPN/Toyota player of the year is not "Hon Le" superaggressive, but he generates enough firepower to win the main event. Now in his late 20s, the well-conditioned California native is a top-nine pick.
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John D'Agostino: "Dags" has one of the strongest right arms in the poker world. Still on the youthful side of 25, this Connecticut-born player can be compared to a 2-year-old colt maturing between the Breeder's Cup and the Kentucky Derby. In 2005, he surpassed the $500,000 mark in yearly earnings, and with his second-place finish at the Borgata Winter Poker Open, he already has pocketed $623,322 in the first quarter of 2006. John is becoming more "tournament comfortable" with each passing year, and has been able to gain ground in foe familiarity. He is quietly confident and very difficult to play against. Opponents are aware that this young gun may fire all of his bullets at any time. He is knocking on the door of his first major championship.
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Kaseem Deeb: "Freddy" can challenge Johnny Chan in playing ability and wild sport-shirt attire. Now in his sixth decade, Deeb is heating up nicely, having cashed 10 times in 2005 (including a $1 million top prize for capturing the Aruba WPT event). The WSOP bracelet holder likes to see many flops, and if opponents acquiesce, the cagey, aggressive, and dangerous post-flop player, who placed 13th in the 2003 championship, will be tough. The congenial, confident lifetime professional is experienced and focused. The man who once studied mechanical engineering at Utah State is a master at designing strategies that adjust to escalating blinds and place him in "steal" gear at the right times.
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* Darrell Dicken: This feared Internet player with the cool handle of "Gigabet" lives up to his moniker, pushing chips fearlessly across the felt. In 2005, he surfaced in brick-and-mortar establishments, making seven final tables, and was a fortuitous flop away from breaking a big one. In 2006, he traveled to Harrah's in San Diego and, after surviving a 13-hour final table, left with the gold and diamond ring, the championship trophy, and $372,780. He is 28, trim, used to large-field competition, and on a tear, and he uses position effectively and is an assailant. I like the Waterloo, Iowa, resident's chances to reach the final nine (as much as I can, given a field of 8,000).
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Antonio Esfandiari: "The Magician" is still in his 20s, but he has matured as a player. He possesses great poker temperament and style at the table. Now more knowledgeable when it comes to strategy and his opponents, Antonio has not lost the fearlessness and aggressiveness that one must have to conquer a huge field. The Tehran native will fire at the first sign of weakness, and defend his chips with zeal. He has won more than $2 million playing tournaments in the past three years. Can the former professional magician make everyone's chips disappear after 14 days in the desert? That just might trump the tricks of the great Houdini.
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Chris Ferguson: The unassuming, gracious 2000 world champion is supposedly nicknamed Jesus based on appearance (the tall, thin, bearded, long-haired player dons black clothing, shades, and a 10-gallon black lid at the table). Now 43 and living in a 26-cubic-foot refrigerator, this extraordinary heads-up player has lots of successful WSOP experience (five bracelets), a great demeanor, and fabulous focus, and is machine-like when it comes to making a play – offering no visible clues as to his holding. Sure, I know the California resident holds a doctorate from UCLA in computer science, is a swing-dance aficionado, does awesome card tricks, and can cut pickles at 10 paces with a Kem card, but even if he manages to win the 2006 main event, I am betting against his upcoming Christmas Eve attempt to walk across the Colorado River.
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Scott Fischman: The youngest player to win two gold bracelets is energetic and fit (physically and emotionally) for extended tournament play. The former dealer resides in Las Vegas and plays an aggressive game. Possessed of excellent concentration, Scott gives us part of his mental strategy: "In a large-field event, I just block out factors such as how many players are left, how much time is left, average stack, and simply time in general. If you constantly keep those factors in mind, it can be mentally draining and discouraging because of the uphill-battle feeling." To further simplify his task at hand, he states, "My game plan is usually to have no game plan." That statement alludes to his strong ability to adapt his normally aggressive style to optimal situational play. Scott has earned $1,311,688 in prize money during the last 24 months.
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Layne Flack: Nicknamed "Back-to-Back" for a 2002 WSOP accomplishment (winning consecutive no-limit hold'em events), Layne, now 38, stays trim, and when playing his A-game, is a top-tier competitor. The fearless aggressor is in rarefied company with five WSOP bracelets. However, he is coming off a dull 2005 ($340,190 in earnings and no trophies is below par for a player of Layne's talent). Known for his unpredictable play and his exceptional ability to determine when he is on the short end of a hand, Layne is difficult to read. Play slowly, and he will be on your case verbally. Play at his rapid pace, and you may be falling prey to one of the best psychologists in the game. One thing is certain: Flack will be on the attack.
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* Ted Forrest: Now 41, the even-tempered, highly respected five-time WSOP bracelet winner is a complete player, and meets all of my scouting criteria. For the last three years, the Syracuse native has returned to tournament play with fervor, and has had excellent success. Forrest, who never met a prop bet he couldn't play, has now accumulated more than $1 million in WPT winnings and has appeared at three final tables. Like many of the best players, Ted wants to see flops and outwit opponents on the next three streets. The winner of the 2006 NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship was my pick to win in 2005, and is my number two pick this year.
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Alan Goehring: Demonstrating a successful riverboat-gambling style, the former bond analyst/trader gained national recognition when he made the WSOP championship table in 1999, gave Noel Furlong a great battle, and took home $768,625. He solidified his position as a feared opponent when he captured the first WPT Championship (and $1,011,886). A quick starter, the 44-year-old Henderson, Nevada, resident has jumped out to the day-one chip lead more often than most in large-field events. He was able to protect his lead at the 2006 L.A. Poker Classic, where he won the trophy and a whopping $2,391,550. With more than $4.9 million in lifetime prize money, the well-conditioned star is in stroke for the 2006 main event.
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* Michael Gracz: This Warsaw, Poland, native graduated from North Carolina State and now resides in North Carolina. He reminds me of a younger (he's 25) version of Allen Cunningham. Both are polite, focused, and always calm – irrespective of the wild rides that one experiences during tournament play. Mathematically astute and possessing strong hand-reading capability, Gracz's aggressive play netted him more than $2 million in 2005, including his first WSOP bracelet and a WPT victory (a $1,525,500 score at the PartyPoker Million IV event). He is perfectly suited for a 14-day, large-field event, and is one of my final-table selections in 2006.
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Barry Greenstein: Writing a book (Ace on the River: An Advanced Poker Guide) may have slowed Barry down in 2005 ("only" three final tables and $395,000 in tournament proceeds), but the man with a graduate degree in mathematics is back on pace, with three final tables in the first quarter of 2006. Now 50, his style and temperament fit my parameters. Known as "The Robin Hood of Poker" for his multimillion-dollar charitable contributions, the analytically astute veteran with more than 20 WSOP cashes (including two wins) is great for poker from all angles. His aggressive, always focused style is well-suited to a long event.
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Hasan Habib: Born and raised in Pakistan, the amicable 44-year-old with eight years' tournament-playing experience and one WSOP bracelet resides in California. The former tennis champ is highly competitive, excelling against top players in high buy-in, slow blind-escalation events. He deploys an ever-changing style that includes taking advantage of weakness and making large reraises. Hasan has a knack for acquiring big stacks in the early stages of major events. His ability to read players and situations paved the way to a phenomenal 2004/2005 record (22 cashes for more than $3 million). Typically a big fan favorite at the final table, Habib is one of the most approachable players in the game.
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Joe Hachem: This amiable Aussie was one of 894 players to enter the $1,000 buy-in no-limit hold'em event on American Independence Day in 2005. A tad more than 39 hours later, the Lebanon native was at the cashier's cage collecting $25,850. Joe decided to parlay $10,000 of the proceeds into the championship event, and 10 days later, the former chiropractor had crossed over into the land of financial freedom, having captured more than 14 percent of the largest ($52 million) purse in poker history. Can the reigning champ repeat? The devoted family man with four children has the conditioning, experience, demeanor, and playing ability (he changes gears remarkably well) to go deep again.
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Jennifer Harman: The likeable, attractive Reno-born, feared high-stakes cash-game player is the only woman to garner two WSOP wins in open events. She is attentive, contemplative, and persevering when playing tournaments. While patient players do not meet all of my criteria, Jen has the ability to change her game to accommodate large-field strategy requirements. Now past her severe kidney problems, the trim Las Vegas resident has the necessary conditioning and ability to go a long way in the 2006 main event. A terrific turn and river player, Harman excels at playing the hand backward to deduce strength and weakness. She snaps off bluffs and takes in many pots when sensing fear in opponents.
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Gus Hansen: This 33-year-old backgammon aficionado deploys an active/aggressive style, attempting to play what many believe to be substandard preflop starting hands. He then powers through the next three streets, but has an above-average capability of sensing an opponent's strength. One of the most dangerous players in the game, the three-time WPT winner and tennis enthusiast is in top physical shape, and focused when playing. The absolutely fearless, mathematically astute Copenhagen native is a threat to pile up checks early on. Once nestled behind a prodigious stack, "The Great Dane" is menacing. One of the many things the inaugural WPT winner has in his favor is that opponents will pay Gus off when he hits flops, since they generally assume he is making a play for the pot.
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Phil Hellmuth Jr.: This 41-year-old business mogul has parlayed his no-limit hold'em talent and "Poker Brat" persona into millions in endorsements, appearance fees, and poker product sales. As a result, his recent open-tournament results are lackluster for a list of this caliber (Phil was ranked number 683 in the Card Player Player of the Year standings in 2005). Nevertheless, I am including the man who is brimming with bling (nine WSOP bracelets). The tall Californian has cashed more than 80 times in major events because he is adept at pushing pots in the first few days of an event, and although he can't read players as well as his ego would have him believe, he does a nice job of determining which players he should pick on and which ones he should avoid.
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* Juha Helppi: The best player in Finland (warning, Juha: Antonius is closing ground) is thoughtful, respectful, and unflappable at the table. Born in 1977, the former dealer, usually checking his holecards through purple shades, is a study in concentration and is willing to take a gamble when he believes the situation is right. For that reason, the confident competitor has done well in a game in which finishing in the top 30 percent of the field regularly, but not in the top 3 percent once in a while, is a recipe for failure. His earnings have increased year after year. In 2005, he picked up $555,628 in prize money. Interestingly, he has captured only one flag (that's paintball speak; Helppi is an outstanding amateur paint player), when he won the UltimateBet Poker Classic in 2002. Juha is a top-nine player who will be able to maintain top playing form for 14 days.
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* Phil Ivey: He is my pick to win the 2006 WSOP championship. Typically, I like to go for an outsider who, if successful, would have a "Wow, how did Lee know?" factor. But, when faced with a huge field, I go with the best. Few knowledgeable poker fans would argue if I stated that's just what the 30-year-old star is. Born in California, raised in New Jersey, and currently residing in Las Vegas, the phenom some know as "Jerome" will be shooting for bracelet number six when the series begins, and were it not for several awful beats, we would have seen him at the 2003 championship final table. Is Ivey in good form? Absolutely! Despite playing in lots of cash games, Phil managed to bank $2,733,426 in tournament proceeds in 2005. He has no weaknesses, great focus, extraordinary demeanor, and excellent card sense. Beat him, and you deserve the chips.
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Kenna James: The former actor and one of Las Vegas' newest homeowners is one of the most entertaining and well-liked players in the game, even when he's taking your chips. Does his training on stage, in soaps, and on the big screen help the big guy? Apparently it does. James is red hot in 2006. He made the championship final table at the Aussie Millions in January. In February, he captured a preliminary event at the L.A. Poker Classic. A month later, the California resident finished second to Mike Schneider on the high seas in the PartyPoker Millions V. Kenna's 2006 success is in line with his continuing trend of year-over-year improvement. His career earnings place him comfortably in the top 50 of all time.
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* John Juanda: Playing since 1999, the Indonesia native's best year was 2004 when he cashed 24 times (includes 17 final-table appearances) and earned more than $1.6 million. In 2005, the former track star entered fewer events, but managed to pull in $872,678. Highly educated ("JJ" graduated from Oklahoma State with a double major and earned his MBA at Seattle University), John's plan to become a doctor has been put on hold by his inordinate poker prowess. Juanda is virtually unparalleled when it comes to preflop play. Since no-limit hold'em strategy is highly dependent on this skill, John continues to achieve excellent results. Looking trim in his FullTiltPoker gear, Juanda's ability to get rapid reads on opponents and sniff out weakness is excellent.
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Nam Le: After a nice 2004 ($278,278 in earnings), Nam improved to $463,566 (scoring an impressive four wins) in 2005. Considering he has been playing professionally for just two years, he appears headed for a breakout 2006, having defeated 517 opponents to win the Bay 101 Shooting Star championship in early March. Mentored by his older (by two years) cousin Tuan Le, this victory catapulted his 2006 earnings to more than $1.2 million. I must say that the IRS coffers are having a field day with our best players. The handsome rising star was born and raised in California, where he now resides. His style varies depending upon his opposition. Nam is an observant player who will pounce on predictable competitors.
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Tuan Le: Still a few years shy of 30, Tuan has an almost choirboy appearance, which beautifully disguises his ferocious playing style. Give him a run of good cards and he'll accumulate a monster stack; as players either know by reputation or soon learn, the quiet, polite attacker doesn't need much of a hand to start firing chips. The Californian's assailing offense has led to phenomenal success (more than $4.4 million in career tourney earnings). Always a strong achiever in school and sports, the finance major can handle a big stack of chips as well as anyone in the game. Tuan also proved he can come from behind when he captured the WPT Championship in 2005. If a true gambler and reader of opponents is slated to win in 2006, it just may be Tuan Le.
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Doug Lee: This youthful, successful real estate investor is the only amateur to make this list. Despite pressing business needs, Lee found time to make three final tables and win $781,044 in 2005, including picking up a WSOP Circuit title when he outlasted Jennifer Harman and another 220 competitors with his aggressive style. The likeable devotee of tennis and squash told me he believes his competitive nature enables him to deal with pressure, and the exercise keeps him mentally fit, a trait essential to no-limit hold'em tournament play, where one mistake can prove fatal. Doug is nicely suited for long tournaments and may surprise.
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Kathy Liebert: Since the start of 2004, this WSOP bracelet holder has appeared at the cashier's cage 42 times. She has earned well over $1 million during this span. Known for being the first woman to win a tournament with a first prize of $1 million (in 2002 on the high seas at the first PartyPoker Million event), Kathy has been raking in pots since 1991 with her aggressive, probing style. Formerly a Dun and Brad analyst, the Nashville native now specializes in evaluating situational investments on a felt surface. One of Liebert's goals is to win a major no-limit hold'em tourney. Capturing the 2006 world championship would accomplish that goal, in a big way.
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Liz Lieu: Featured at numerous final tables in 2005 and on the cover of a 2006 Card Player college edition, this diminutive 31-year-old beauty is a confessed "all-or-nothing" type player. The native of Vietnam was raised in Colorado, has logged 40-hour high-stakes cash-game sessions, and is able to withstand marathon poker events. Relying on 14 years of experience, Lieu is adept at observing opponents and leaving them puzzled with rapid gear changes. Her tournament batting average has been sensational in the last year, her first 12 months of serious tourney action (Liz won nearly $200,000 in 2005 WSOP events). Lieu is a contender.
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Erick Lindgren: "E-Dog" took some time off in 2005 to write an excellent book (Making the Final Table) and make promotional appearances. At 29, the former sports star's youthful, all-American looks belie his seasoning and his aggressive, take-no-prisoners tournament playing style. The 2003 WPT player of the year has logged more than a dozen final-table appearances in major events and is excellent at adapting to changing circumstances. If this seasoned shorthanded player can get to day nine (27 players remaining), he will be a strong threat to win the championship. Lindgren will not play for second place.
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Marcel Luske: The "Flying Dutchman" is one of the most likeable and entertaining players in poker. Dressed for success, the family man packs a suit for each day of the main event. He has needed almost his full wardrobe twice in the last three years, finishing on the bubble (10th) in 2004 and 14th in 2003. The advocate for universal poker rules is astute at picking up signs of weakness and not afraid to go to the felt with a hand. Known for wearing his sunglasses upside down (he claims it provides a brighter view of his holecards), this raconteur will tell you a story, sing you a song, and give you a poker lesson while taking your chips. Luske is hot, accumulating more than $450,000 in prize money during the first four months of 2006.
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Tony Ma: The 1999 tournament player of the year, approaching age 50, combines the drive of Tiger Woods with the gamble of Charles Barkley. Relying on an excellent ability to control the urge to splurge chips based on his excellent reads, this veteran has two gold bracelets and has been knocking on the door of a WPT victory with five final-table efforts. Hailing from Vietnam (seemingly a training ground for aggressive no-limit players), the former ship welder displays a solid all-around game. The Southern California resident's results have been consistently excellent, culminating in 17 cashes and $1,281,643 in graded earnings in 2005.
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Mike Matusow: Last year, this Las Vegan made my watch list, but I stated I had not been able to observe him play from close range; I didn't want to trigger a reaction if I stood behind him. Most players are fine with my presence, as I know enough to maintain a poker face even when I inadvertently see their hands, but a few are paranoid. Then, I met "The Mouth" at a social function, got to know him, and watched him play a few times. He is very impressive, displaying almost unmatched command at the table, and while he sometimes loses poise between hands, he has a remarkable ability to refocus when the cards are in the air. His recent record (more than $2 million in 2005 tourney earnings) is extraordinary when one considers that he has had his share of "off the felt" problems. Matusow's fearlessness and reading ability make one of last year's final-table players a threat again in 2006.
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* Michael Mizrachi: Known as "The Grinder," Michael is relentlessly aggressive in the middle and late stages of a tournament. The native Floridian was on track to become a physician, but caught the poker bug and folded his college education. How did that play work out? Well, this outstanding heads-up player has crossed the $5 million mark in earnings, and he is only 25. Approaching the start of play at the WSOP, the man who attributes much of his success to online poker training is atop the 2006 Card Player Player of the Year leader board with a second at the Gold Strike World Poker Open and a $1,173,373 victory at the Borgata Winter Poker Open championship. Based on Michael's extraordinary results, he makes my final nine this year.
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Juan Carlos Mortensen: "El Matador" conquered the bulls in the 2001 World Championship, taking home $1.5 million. He used a strong-right-arm style that has become more common as no-limit has caught on and evolved as the tournament preference of this millennium. That style will be the one the winner uses in 2006. Now 34, the man who was born in Ambato, Ecuador, is even-tempered, able-bodied, confident, courageous, and unpredictable. His lackadaisical chip movement belies the thought and study Carlos has put into the game. I have one reservation: His 2005/2006 tourney performance has been comparatively weak.
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* Daniel Negreanu: Poker would be the beneficiary of a Negreanu victory. Anyone who has met the 31-year-old native Canadian knows he is likable. Those who have read his Card Player columns, personal blog on fullcontactpoker.com, or syndicated newspaper column realize that the all-time tournament earnings leader (source: thehendonmob.com) is knowledgeable, articulate, open, and interesting. The multiple 2004 player of the year would promote poker beyond expectation. Daniel, a two-time WPT winner, has amassed three WSOP titles and plays the type of aggressive, gambling game I believe one must to make the championship final table in 2006. "Kid Poker" has the necessary skills, style, and stamina to go all the way.
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Men Nguyen: This fiery, competitive Vietnam native captured his unprecedented fourth Card Player Player of the Year award in 2005 (also winning in 1997, 2001, and 2003). The odd-year phenom shows no signs of slowing down in his early 50s. Known for his charitable contributions, especially to his homeland, the California resident does well in even years, also, cashing 15 times in 2002 and a whopping 28 times in 2004. Since looking at his first holecards in 1984, "The Master" has won more than 70 events, including six WSOP titles. As you would expect, the cagey, talkative, entertaining, diminutive star has a plethora of strengths. Perhaps at the top is his ability to determine how an opponent plays and then devise a strategy that takes advantage of any weakness that competitor may display. If Men wins in 2006, Corona beer will be flowing.
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Scotty Nguyen: Coming off a strong 2005 ($745,640 and six final tables), the charismatic 1998 world champion is off to a terrific start in 2006 with more than $1 million in earnings, featuring his inaugural WPT win at the Gold Strike Poker Open, where he defeated 326 opponents. The Henderson, Nevada, resident's lifetime earnings are just over $6 million (fifth highest of all time), and that doesn't include all the jewelry that goes along with major poker victories (including four WSOP bracelets). "The Prince," often an intimidator at the table, is one of the nicest players in the game. He commands a table as well as anyone in poker, and uses an aggressive style to build chips early. His all-or-nothing philosophy is a positive when it comes to large-field events.
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David Pham: "The Dragon" had his fiery face and chip-pushing paw extended at the cashier's window 21 times in 2004. He collected $1,592,247, and narrowly missed edging Daniel Negreanu for player of the year honors. In 2005, perhaps finding time to spend some of his earnings and enjoy his large family, the Vietnam native slid to a very livable 12 cashes for $814,988. Mentored by his cousin Men "The Master" and now in his 40s, David is a natural attacker who rates his play nicely, finding appropriate times and opponents with whom to get frisky. Give this WSOP bracelet owner an opening, and he'll steal your pot.
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John Phan: This 31-year-old Californian has been playing full time for 11 years, is superaggressive, and fun to watch (although I can grow a Greenstein-length beard in the time it takes Phan to make a few key decisions). Omitting a player who made 10 final tables and earned more than $1 million in 2005 from my top-nine asterisked players may come back to bite me, but there are just so many great young players these days. The Vietnam native (that country theme is prevalent in this list) is a quick study when it comes to pigeonholing opponents. Conversely, "The Razor" is highly unpredictable and extremely difficult to read.
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Paul Phillips: Many stars play like chameleons, but Paul is the man of many looks. Whether his head is shaved or his hair is full and dyed purple, the sometimes-bearded wonder can play. He cashed in four events at the 2004 WSOP and is a highly dangerous foe. Not one to duck controversial poker issues through the years, the Las Vegan is admired by peers for his willingness to get involved, and for his mores. Gregarious and fearless at the table, the former chief technical officer of Go2net.com is tabbed "the dot-com millionaire" when he appears on WPT shows. Starting his family in 2005 reduced Paul's tourney earnings substantially (and gave him a pass on my recent-performance criterion), but he will be prepared for the 2006 main event.
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Victor Ramdin: Playing in the number 26 jersey for FullTiltPoker, the Georgetown, Guyana, native is a thinking man's aggressor. Victor (his real name is Annand) studies his opponents and takes advantage of their weaknesses. Ramdin is red-hot, already pocketing $1,578,349 with three six-figure paydays in 2006. The 39-year-old's biggest win to date came in early April when he outlasted 430 players to capture the WPT main event during the Foxwoods Poker Classic. The man who enjoys playing darts will be shooting for the poker bull's-eye in August 2006.
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Greg Raymer: The large, friendly, articulate, intelligent man the poker world knows as "Fossilman" (for his fossil card protectors) almost accomplished an unfathomable repeat last year. After collecting $5 million for his world championship victory in 2004, Sophie's dad was still seated when more than 99.44 percent of the 2005 main-event field had been sent to the rail. The North Dakota native was fifth in chips with 27 players in action. Alas, he suffered 90 minutes of ugly cards (second-best hands and bad beats). Finally, comparatively low in chips and holding A-9, the devoted family man went to the felt on a flop of K-K-7. Ayhan Alsancak, who held pocket fives, picked off the champ's bluff. Greg rose to collect $304,680 as the crowd stood, hooted, and clapped in appreciation. Obviously, this poker star has the right stuff to win in 2006.
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Erik Seidel: The seven-time bracelet winner and former backgammon pro is introverted in comparison to some of the more flamboyant, "jump up and scream" personalities in poker. Don't let the modest, intelligent star's lack of emotion at the table and preference for a subdued family existence color your opinion of his ability. Erik plays far fewer events than the average top player, yet manages to rake in huge profits each year (his tournament earnings were $752,172 in 2004 and $889,879 in 2005). The amateur tennis player has amassed approximately $5 million in tourney proceeds, and has finished in the money 35 times at WSOP events. He is patient, focused, and cannot be thrown off his game. Admired by his peers, Seidel is a top player.
