Hidden Luck

Many years ago, I worked for a high-tech company that was having spectacular success. A long line of management consultants advised the company's president that his business model was incorrect and he was heading down the wrong path. "Go sit in the lobby and read my annual report," he told them, "and then tell me I'm doing something wrong." (Bear with me, I promise we will get to poker.)

Of course, a few years later the company had a string of terrible results and was cheaply acquired. Did the company then listen to the consultants? No, they kept on doing what they were doing because (they thought) it had made them successful.

In reality, what had made them so successful was a combination of skill and luck. They had the right product at the right time, and it sold itself. But since they completely discounted the luck factor and assumed that the success was based on skill, they failed to see warning signs and correct errors they refused to admit existed. Eventually, of course, they failed and were taken over by a more successful company.

Poker players (finally!) fall into the same trap. They refuse to recognize that winning has a large luck factor, though of course skill also plays an important part. In fact, many poker players attribute their good results, when they have them, entirely to skill and their bad results entirely to terrible luck.

Let's look at a typical hand. Playing limit hold'em, our hero holds pocket aces in early position and raises. Since this is a tight game, everyone folds to the big blind. This player, the weakest one at the table, decides to "defend" his blind with 7-3 offsuit.

The flop is J-7-4. The big blind checks to our hero who bets. Putting the raiser on A-K, the big blind check-raises and is reraised by our hero. A 9 falls on the turn and it goes check-bet-call. On the river, another 9 hits and again we see check-bet-call. The aces hold up and our hero drags a pot with 9.25 big bets in it.

Certainly this is an unremarkable hand of the sort we see every day. But I will use it to make the point that our hero was "lucky" in several ways.

1. He held aces: Everyone holds aces, so this in itself is not that lucky. In fact, everyone ought reasonably to expect that he will hold aces one time in 221. However, some players hold aces a bit more often than average over a reasonable period of time. If, say, someone holds aces one time in 210 for six months, they will almost certainly not notice how "lucky" they are, but their results will probably be better than typical for that time.

2. He got action: If any other player but this one had been in the big blind, our hero would have won the blinds. As it was, he was lucky enough to hold a premium hand when a weak player was willing to play a terrible hand.

3. The flop hit his opponent: No matter how weak the opponent, if the flop had missed him entirely, he would almost certainly have folded on the flop. As it happened, the opponent flopped a pair, and overplayed his hand right up to the end.

4. The opponent did not draw out: You might not consider it lucky that the opponent did not draw out, but the fact remains that after the flop, his opponent will win 20 percent of the time, and even after the turn, the opponent will still win over 11 percent of the time. In fact, let's stop the action on the turn and look at the situation. There are 7.25 big bets in the pot. If the players were to make a deal right then, the 7-3 would be entitled to almost .8 bets, and the A-A would get the rest (6.45 big bets). When they play it out and the 73 misses, the A-A takes the whole pot, including that portion of equity that a moment ago "belonged" to the opponent. In a manner of speaking, he got lucky to the extent of .8 bets that, if they played the hand a million times, would rightfully go the other way.

This is just one example of hidden luck. Certainly our hero played correctly and got rewarded. But another player with aces at another time with another opponent would not have won as much (if at all) if any of the circumstances changed.

Hidden luck extends much further. Say a player plays well except that he thinks K-J is a better hand than it really is, so he plays it in early position and often raises with it. While he rates to lose money in the long term by playing this hand, he may have great success with this tactic for months or even years.

He may hit the flop more often than average, make two pair when he is out-kicked, occasionally make a one-card flush, and find other ways to win. Eventually, the hand will prove a long-term loser, but the long term in poker is sometimes very long. When it finally happens, our K-J addict will not even notice, as he will attribute each instance of loss as "things that occur at the poker table" and never realize that his earlier success with a junk hand have dragged him down. Since he is a good player he will probably still have a wining record, but it could have been a better one if he only understood his "leak."

Sometimes hidden luck has sad consequences. Players who play decently but not really well can run lucky for a while. They hold better cards, hit more flops, get more action and have their hands hold up more often than they normally would. Then they confuse this streak with normalcy. They quit their day jobs, move to Las Vegas, and "turn pro."

Since they really don't understand that they will actually earn will far less than what they have come to expect, they establish a life style beyond their actual means. When their results return to normal (or worse, become poorer than that for an extended period), they go broke. Since they failed to recognize their hidden luck for an extended period, they attribute a normal run of cards to bad luck.

Hidden luck can come in many forms, such as making a few extra flushes and not running into higher flushes or even better hands. Hitting more sets than average (and having most of them win) could be another example. Last week I made a poor lay-down of the best hand on the turn, but one of my opponents made a flush on the river so I actually saved a bet or two. But I need to recognize that this was not a great laydown; it was pure luck that I saved these bets.

Conclusion. As a poker player you are in essence the president of your own poker company. And, unlike the president of the company I discussed in the introduction, you ought to listen to advice, even if you are having great success.

This does not mean you have to adopt every suggestion you read or hear. But keep an open mind, and understand that just because something appears to be working does not mean it is the best possible way to play.

Most players seek help only when they are losing or not winning much. You do not have to wait that long. Read poker books, Card Player, and online forums. Form study groups so you can get the benefit of other opinions and perspectives. Talk to players you trust and admire. You may even want to engage a poker coach.

The long term can be a very long time in the poker world. The fact that you are winning now does not mean you can afford to become complacent. You may just be experiencing some hidden luck.

Barry offers poker lessons tailored to the specific strengths and weaknesses of the individual student. Please visit his web site at www.barrytanenbaum.com or e-mail him at [email protected].