Don't 'Auto-Bet' the Turn

One of the reasons that mastering poker is an impossible task is that the game changes constantly, as new theories or plays, and many old recycled ones, become popular for a time. Then, everyone gets used to them, they stop working well, and a new set of plays becomes popular.



Right now, we are in an aggressive period in poker, which is reasonable, because aggressive poker is certainly a winning method. However, I have observed in middle-limit games a trend toward aggression without situational analysis. This trend has clear drawbacks and exposes vulnerabilities that you can now exploit.



One such instance is "auto-betting" the turn. Recently, I have seen far more players than ever appear to believe that if you take the lead on the flop, you should also bet on the turn. Perhaps this is in response to more players "taking one off" on the flop and folding on the turn if they do not improve, but doing anything in poker automatically is a dangerous practice.



Let's say that I hold the K 9 in the big blind and call a late-position raise. The flop comes K-7-3 rainbow, and I check to the raiser, who bets. Once upon a time, I would check-raise here, as my call with no draws on board would at least have a decent probability of showing that I have a king, and my opponent would check on the turn with an ace or pair lower than a king. Of course, if he held a better king, I would be vulnerable to a raise later in the hand, but I would not want to give up a free card on the turn that easily.



More recently, I don't bother making this check-raise against many opponents, because they won't ever take a free card even if I offer it. They will always bet their A-10 or J-J again regardless of what my call might mean and what the turn does to their chances of winning. They just auto-bet when checked to. Out of position, I am happy to get the turn bet in with no risk on my part.



Depending on what falls, I may elect to bet the river, leading to sequences like check-bet-call, check-bet-call, and bet-fold that were rare to nonexistent a few years ago.

An example hand: Recently I saw a hand that exemplified another aspect of auto-betting the turn. I was watching a professional friend (whom we will call Tommy) play $30-$60 hold'em when the following hand came up. My friend held the Q 10 in the cutoff seat after two middle-position limpers, and elected to raise. His purpose seemed to be to eliminate the blinds and get a three-way pot with him in position as the aggressor. If that was the plan, it backfired, as a young tourist three-bet from the button.



The reraise not only folded the blinds, but the limpers as well.



Tommy called, and the flop came 9 7 3. This was a game with some banter, and the button asked Tommy if he was going to check-raise. Tommy replied that he wasn't even sure he was going to check, but he did, and then called the bet. I'm not sure what he was thinking with this call, but perhaps he was planning to try to steal the pot later in the hand.



The A fell on the turn, and Tommy checked again. The button bet, and Tommy said, "Now I can check-raise," and did so. The button hesitated only a fraction of a second before tossing his pocket queens away, so Tommy dragged in a nice pot that he had no business winning.



Analysis: Do you see the button's error? He played perfectly until the turn, but then made a major mistake in betting. My guess is that he didn't even consider checking, because that's how many players act these days: bet the flop, then bet the turn.

But he should have taken the time to recognize that the turn card created a classical "way ahead or way behind" situation. We discussed such situations in a previous column ("Way Ahead or Way Behind," Card Player, Vol. 17/No. 26, available at http://www.cardplayer.com/), but here is a brief summary:



• You are heads up on the turn.

• You are in position.

• You do not know if you are ahead or behind.

• If you are behind, you have almost no outs (at most, two or three), but

• If you are ahead, your opponent has almost no outs.



If you do not know whether you need a free card or would be giving a free card, and either way the chances of hitting the card are small, check on the turn and call on the river if bet into. Of course, if you make your out, raise.



Making this play certainly costs you the pot when your opponent would have folded and draws out. However, it symmetrically saves you the pot when you get check-raised and have to fold when you might have drawn out. But you also gain in the following circumstances:



• Your opponent erroneously value-bets the river, thinking you are weak.

• Your opponent bluffs into what he hopes is a board that scares you.

• Your opponent checks and calls your river value-bet, hoping your check on the turn showed weakness and you are now bluffing. He may even call with a hand that he would have folded on the turn had you bet.

The check costs you a bet when you were ahead and your opponent would have called bets on the turn and the river. But overall, you should come out ahead on incremental bets if you check instead of bet.

Our example hand shows that clearly. By betting, you might get bluffed off a hand that you would have won easily if you simply had checked. Notice that Tommy would be completely stymied by a check on the turn. Perhaps he would follow through on the river with a bluff, trying to represent an ace, but the button would call with the same bet he put in on the turn, knowing it would end the action and he would see a showdown.

Conclusion: All winning players have aggression as a cornerstone of their philosophy. You must be willing to bet and raise when you believe you are ahead, or have a positive expectation. Most of my opponents will tell you that I am quite aggressive, and not shy about putting in bets and raises.

But you must continue to be aware of what situation you are in, what your opponents might have, and how they react to your plays. If you become predictable in any way whatsoever, you are giving up edge to players who can exploit your predictability.

Before acting on the turn, take the time to analyze what is happening, and assess the relative benefits of betting and checking. You still may decide to bet most of the time, but it will be a decision instead of a reflex, and that will be a big help to your game.

Barry offers poker lessons tailored to the specific strengths and weaknesses of the individual student. Please visit his web site at www.barrytanenbaum.com or e-mail him at [email protected].