Ace Speaks Hold'em: No-Limit Versus Limit - An In-Depth Analysis Part X: Play on the Later Streets; Following Through

It is Imperative to Know When to Follow Through and When to Simply Give it Up



You may have heard this quote somewhere: "You should know when to fire again and when to retreat." This is one of the keys to successful big-bet play. If your flop bet gets called, quite often the deciding factor of whether or not to bet again on the turn will be your read on your opponent. Quite a few no-limit hold'em players will flat-call a bet on the flop with a good made hand, waiting for you to bet again on the turn so that they can make their move then. You should first know which players like to make these plays, because some players are afraid to just call with a good made hand, and will almost always make their move on the flop. Also, the players who like to wait until the later streets to make a move often have tip-offs, little tells they give away of whether they are drawing or not. One of the most reliable tip-offs for me is one that good players exhibit. When good players are drawing, they will often call a bet fairly quickly, possibly to show strength, hoping that on the turn, you may back down because of their quick call. But when they are actually slow-playing a big hand, they usually take just a little more time – as if they are not certain of whether they should call your flop bet.

Of course, the reason is simple: They want you to fire one more bet with your second-best hand, hoping that by that time, you will be committed. Now, online, this tell is not very reliable, of course, but in live play, this little giveaway that many good players exhibit has made (and saved) me tremendous amounts of money.



Anyway, let's make this all a bit more concrete. Holding the Q J, you have made a pot-sized bet on a flop of Q 10 5, and one late-position player has called your bet. Based upon your read on this player, you judge it quite likely that he is drawing, and that your top pair/marginal kicker is good. Assuming that you don't know much about this player, other than he does not seem to get out of line very often, how would you play the turn in each of the following four situations?

Will you follow through, and if so – in what manner, and why?



Situation No. 1 – Turn card: 3



Obviously, you should fire once more here. Your hand is quite likely to be the best, and if it's not, at least you have just picked up a flush draw. (Note that it is impossible for your opponent to have the best hand and a higher flush draw in your suit – spades.) Depending on the exact amount of money here, a pot-sized bet would seem OK. Had your hand been the K Q instead of the Q J, you could have considered betting a bit less than the pot to lure your opponent into calling if you figure him for a straight draw rather than a heart-flush draw. Let's say that your opponent has K-J here; his king overcard is no longer an out. He will be drawing to just six outs, as two of his straight cards will give you a flush. In that case, because he is drawing so thin here, you could afford to give him slightly better odds by betting a bit less than the pot.



Situation No. 2 – Turn card: 10


This is not the prettiest of turn cards for you. If your opponent has a third 10, it is now you who is drawing extremely thin. On the other hand, if your opponent doesn't have a 10 and is still drawing, this card will look extremely dangerous to him, as well. After all, it could mean that he is now drawing dead! And, frankly, it is not all that likely that your opponent has called your flop bet with a 10 in his hand, as that was just second pair on the flop. And besides that, there is no way he can have a 10 in his hand as part of a draw, so this means that his call on the flop could have been made while thinking that this second pair might have been good. As I said, it's not all that likely – even though it is possible.



Now, assuming the money is relatively deep, you usually should start making some minor adjustments to the size of your bets once the board pairs. I almost never make very large bets once the board has paired. On the other hand, making a very small bet is not recommended, either, if it means that your opponent may use it to get tricky and represent three tens. After all, with your hand (top two pair/marginal kicker), you absolutely don't want to face a big raise that could very well be a big semibluff. So, what you should do in almost all cases when the board pairs is make a decent-sized bet, about half the pot. This way, you will probably get a reliable response from your opponent, and this makes it more likely that you will be able to make the correct decisions later in the hand. What's more, this bet will probably enable you to pick up the pot the majority of the time – and this would be the best result of all with your vulnerable hand and all the draws out there.



Situation No. 3 – Turn card: J



This card is a mixed blessing. It has improved your hand to top two pair, but it has also completed many straight and flush draws. At first glance, I would be terrified of this card. But, then again, there is some good news, as well. We are up against someone who has just called our flop bet. Being in position, if he had a big flush draw, or a flush and straight draw, he may well have become more aggressive with his hand. So, while it is possible that we are up against a completed flush, it is almost certainly not the ace-high flush, meaning that our opponent cannot play his hand in a carefree manner, either. And it is almost certainly not a straight flush, either, as our opponent would need to have flopped a straight draw, a flush draw, and a straight-flush draw. Now, being in position, most people would have played a hand like that a bit more aggressively on the flop than by just calling.



And there is some more good news: All of the straight draws that have been completed now were gutshots, and people with gutshot-straight draws usually don't call pot-sized bets on the flop – even though A-K would be a gutshot plus two overcards for a reasonable call. Open-end straight draws like K-J and J-9 have not drawn out on you. In fact, if your opponent did have you beat on the flop with something like A-Q, K-Q, or even Q-10, you have now outdrawn him!



All in all, when the board gets as scary as it is here with a completed draw, I usually like to make moderate-sized bets rather than very big ones. But, frankly, in this situation, you are likely to make mistakes no matter what. The board is full of semibluffing opportunities for your opponent, so even if you bet half the pot and get raised, it is far from certain that you are actually beat: Your opponent may have something like the K J or the A J and be using the scary board to try to bet you off the best hand. So, when the money is not too deep, this may well be one of those situations in which I could go broke with top two pair against someone who "obviously" has completed his draw. With very deep money, this may be one of the cases in which you may be better off to just give it up – to either check and fold or bet small and then fold to a raise. This is one of those situations in which you may be forced to throw away the best hand, especially if the person who has position on you is either very good or very tricky. But, then again, you have no one else to blame for this than yourself. With a hand as weak as the Q J, you never should have gotten to the point where you are out of position against a good player with lots of money still to be played.



Situation No. 4 – Turn card: A



Here, you almost always have an obvious check and fold. The ultimate scare card has popped out of the deck, and there is hardly a hand you can still beat. If your opponent is incredibly weak or predictable, you may get away with making some very small "feeler" bets, so that his response will tell you if there is some chance that you are actually still ahead.



Against anyone who can be considered a player, you will simply have to surrender here. Yes, a few times you will be folding the winning hand, but since the pot is still fairly small, you don't really worry about that. What you do worry about is the rest of your stack, and if you are willing to put in a lot of additional chips with this board, you usually will be making a very big mistake.



"But, hey," you may say, "why shouldn't I use the ace of hearts to represent the straight or flush myself? Wouldn't that work?" Well, yes, that would be a good play sometimes – but probably not in this situation. The flop betting has suggested that it is your opponent who is drawing. Now, if he has made a small flush or a straight, it will be very hard for him to lay it down in this heads-up situation. Very few players are capable of first calling a big bet to complete their draw, then fold it once they have made it. So, I would recommend saving your bluffs and your moves for another time – more specifically, when it looks like the opposition may be weak.



Rolf's Rule No. 15: Knowing when to follow through depends mostly on three things: first of all, the texture of the board, then the tendencies of your opponents, and finally, the strength of your own hand. It should be easier for you to make the correct decisions in a brick-and-mortar cardroom, because good players can often "feel" when their hand is not good anymore – a luxury they don't have online.

This is Part X in a XIV-part series on limit and no-limit hold'em. This series was created especially for Card Player Europe. The accompanying DVDs on this subject can be obtained through Rolf's site, http://www.rolfslotboom.com/.