Outs Versus 'Douts'

The term "out" is one of those words that create a lot of confusion among poker players. And, in many cases, players use a definition that will lead to incorrect decisions. One commonly used definition is that an out is a card that improves one's hand. For example, you might hear a player say that he has nine outs with a flush draw. This is a popular and practical definition – as one can easily count how many cards will improve his hand to a better one. This definition always works well in describing to beginning players the various possibilities in improving their hand. Although practical, this definition tends to give many players false impressions with respect to the strength of their draw.



What you really want to know is the odds against improving to the winning hand. An out is no good when a card that improves your hand gives an opponent an even better hand. Nor is an out good if your opponent already has a better hand than the one to which you are trying to improve. A common drawing mistake is assuming that you will win when a particular card improves your hand.



Counting outs is not an exact science when you define an out as a card that improves your hand to a winning hand. This is often unknown, as you do not know exactly what your opponent is holding. Here are some examples:



- You could improve to a straight while your opponent has a flush.



- You might improve on the turn, only to see your opponent improve to a winning hand on the river.



- You could be hoping for a flush card, only to lose to a higher flush, or maybe even a full house.



- You could hit an overcard, only to lose to two pair, three of a kind, a straight, or a flush.



Let's look at some more definitions:



You are drawing dead when you cannot improve to the winning hand. For example, you are drawing dead when holding two overcards on the turn if an opponent already has a set or two pair, or if your outs would give your opponent an even better hand. This is the worst possible scenario in poker. You are putting additional money into the pot when you have absolutely no chance of winning it.



When applying odds, you should discount an out whenever there is a chance that the out is no good. Similarly, you should disregard the out if you think you are drawing dead. I refer to discounted outs as "douts."


The term "dout" was first used by Mike Petriv in his book, Hold'em Odds Book. He used the term to refer to an opponent's outs. I use the term here to refer to discounted outs.



A dout is simply a value used to represent a card that improves your hand and then is discounted based on how likely that card would improve it to the best hand. The discounted out, or dout, can range from 0 to 1.



A dout that has a value of 0 represents a card that improves your hand but has no chance of being the best hand. In other words, you are drawing dead to that card. A dout that has a value of 1 means that the card has no discount, since you are drawing to the nuts.



If you are 50 percent confident that a card will improve your hand to winning status, you would discount your out to 0.5 of a dout. If you are 75 percent confident, your out is worth 0.75 of a dout, and so forth.



How much you discount your outs to determine the number of douts is dependent upon how many players you are up against, as well as your read on your opponents' possible holdings, given the betting sequences in the hand.



For example, you have three outs to an overcard ace and think that you might win about two-thirds of the time against a lone opponent if you hit the ace. In this case, you would discount your three outs to two douts. However, against two opponents, you might think that you will win only about one-third of the time, so you discount your three outs to one dout. If you are up against three or more opponents, you might think that even with another ace, you have almost no chance of winning. In this case, you should disregard the outs to the ace, since you think those outs have practically no chance of winning.



Note that on the flop, you will need to apply an additional discount for the possibility that when you improve on the turn, your opponent(s) will have a chance to improve to a better hand on the river. In fact, there are very few hands on the flop that are draws to the true nuts, as your opponents almost always have at least a small possibility of beating you on the river. For example, you could hit the nut straight or flush on the turn, only to see an opponent hit a full house on the river. The more opponents you are up against on the flop, the higher the risk and the bigger the required discount.



After you assign each out a value as a dout, simply add them all together to get the total number of douts. Once you know the number of douts, you can calculate the odds against improving to the winning hand to determine your best strategy.



For example, with eight douts and 46 cards left in the deck, you are 4.75-to-1 (38-to-8) against improving your hand. Now you can make the correct drawing decision by comparing the odds against improving your hand to the implied pot odds you are getting on the call.



By always focusing on douts, you ensure that you always take into account that you could improve your hand but lose. A simple change in terminology to distinguish an out from a dout can help players avoid making simple mistakes.



The majority of this column is an excerpt from my new book, Texas Hold'em Odds and Probabilities, which is available at www.CardPlayer.com.



Matthew Hilger is the author of Internet Texas Hold'em and Texas Hold'em Odds and Probabilities: Limit, No-limit, and Tournament Strategies. You can visit the ITH Forum or follow the first Internet Player of the Year Race at http://www.internettexasholdem.com/.