Toto 'The Ripper' Versus 'Minneapolis' Jim

Recently I've been catching up on some televised poker that I have stored on my TiVo. I actually have a separate television and TiVo just for poker in another room in my house. I'm not really watching these shows to entertain myself. In fact, I get a lot more out of watching poker on television, and I use it as a study tool – not to learn how to actually play the game, mind you, but to study the various opponents I'll face in the bigger tournaments.



There was an interesting hand that came up in an episode of the Professional Poker Tour between Jim Meehan and Toto Leonidas. I was actually at the table, as well. The hand in question seems rather straightforward, but there was a questionable play made in the hand that I thought was worthy of a column.

The blinds were $2,000-$4,000 with a $500 ante, and there were seven players at the table. From the cutoff seat, Jim raised to $14,000 with the 7 7. I folded from the button, Chris Bigler folded from the small blind, and it was $10,000 more to Toto.



He looked down at the Q 9 and must have sensed immense weakness from Jim, because he decided to reraise an additional $40,000!



At the time, both players were in fine shape in regard to chips. Toto started the hand with about $125,000, while Jim had even more than that.



Without much hesitation, Jim quickly announced, "All in." Wow, that's a very risky play with a marginal hand like 7-7. Jim must have thought Toto was making a play at the pot, and figured he could "resteal" it by going all in.



The action was back on Toto now, and had he been able to see Jim's hand, he'd have had an easy call. This is as close to a coin-flip situation as you are going to get. The 7-7 will win 51.18 percent of the time, and the two players will split the pot 0.55 percent of the time.



Of course, Toto doesn't know that. All Toto knows is that his pot odds are very good. He's getting about 2.5-1 odds. The problem is that Jim's hand looks a lot stronger than any hand that he'd be less than a 2.5-1 underdog against. Toto has to worry about A-A, K-K, or Q-Q. He'd be getting the right price against A-K, or even J-J, but just marginally so.



It's difficult to put Jim on a pair smaller than nines when he makes the third raise at such a crucial point in the tournament. What would you do with Toto's hand in this situation? If you fold, you'd be making a horrible mistake, as it turns out, but you could never know that. Chances are, you'd do exactly what Toto did and throw the hand away.



Now, before I critique Toto's decision to put himself in this situation, it's important to point out that Jim ends up making an excellent read and a very bold play by moving in with a small pair.



There is always an underlying problem with making a resteal raise like the one Toto attempted. You'll often find yourself in situations in which you could make a crucial mathematical error.



In this case, when Toto decided to put 43 percent of his stack into the pot, many would argue that he was pot-committed and should have called Jim's raise. Obviously, we now know that that would have been the right decision, since it was a coin flip, but the real question is: Should Toto have put himself in this situation in the first place?



The resteal is a deadly play with a very high winning percentage, but what you need to take into account before making such a play is whether or not you are putting yourself in a tricky or vulnerable position. Generally speaking, Toto had to call off the rest of his chips unless he thought Jim had precisely A-A, K-K, or Q-Q. If he folds against any other hand, he's making a rather big mistake. With the size of Toto's reraise, he made the game harder than it needs to be.



Let's look at what happens if Toto makes a smaller raise, or even a larger raise:



Suppose that Toto made it $34,000 instead of $54,000. If Jim came over the top of that bet, Toto could easily get away from his Q 9, and would be right to do so a much higher percentage of the time. In that case, he'd be getting a little less than 2-1 odds. He'd be right to fold against nines or higher, plus A-K and A-Q.



The other alternative for Toto was to make a huge reraise. Let's say that he makes it $75,000 to go. Well, if he were to do that, it would essentially be the same thing as going all in. After putting in $75,000, the other $50,000 has to go in, as he would be getting more than 4-1 odds. It would be right for him to call that bet even against a pair of aces.



With the smaller raise and the bigger raise, Toto's decision becomes very easy. By committing 43 percent of his chips when making the raise that he did, he put himself in one of the most difficult positions that he could in a no-limit hold'em tournament.



The lesson here is pretty straightforward. You should always be thinking one step ahead when deciding on a particular play. If you plan on folding to a reraise, make sure that you don't put yourself in a situation in which you are destined to make big boo-boos.



Toto is a great player, and frankly, he is one of my favorites to watch. He has a unique perspective on the game and is fearlessly aggressive in certain situations. I think he made a mistake in this particular hand, but all great players stub a toe from time to time.



You now can watch Daniel's video diary and play poker with him online at http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/.