You're playing a solid style of limit hold'em, sticking mostly to big cards, pairs, and suited connectors, adjusting your starting strategies to both the types and number of players in the pot. You've been running "flop-dead," missing most of the hands you play. Since most of the flops are bet, you're constantly faced with the decision of whether to withstand additional action when holding overcards.
Many players routinely take one off with overcards, not understanding the varying degree of value of both the overcards and the situation. For example: When holding the A
K
on a J
10
2
flop, being last to act and calling a single opponent in a big pot is
much stronger than calling with the J
10
on a 7
6
5
flop when next to act behind the bettor with several opponents yet to act behind you in a small pot.
Yes, these examples are at each end of the spectrum regarding value, but they are good illustrations of what one must think about conceptually in deciding whether to call a flop bet with overcards.
Note that this column deals only with the subject of calling with overcards when confronting a bet. I understand that betting or raising can often be a better play in many situations, but that is the subject for a different analysis. Also, peeling off a card with the intent of making a play on the turn, or intending to peel two cards unless a scare card hits, is a different proposition, and, accordingly, for a different discussion. We're dealing with just the one issue: to peel or not to peel the turn card.
Besides calling as a matter of course with overcards, many players also routinely muck their overcards, especially those that do not include an ace. This too can be a habit that loses them substantial value.
You're 7-1 against to make a pair on the turn with two overcards. So, if you can average winning seven times the amount that you call with overcards in the current situation, the bet is break-even. Of course, your implied odds, your chances of losing, and a multitude of other factors come into play when determining value. While the equation has too many unquantifiable variables, making it impossible to determine the value exactly, certain concepts are consistently applicable.
What is the chance that one pair will win the pot? Will the card you hit make an opponent an even better hand? In many if not most situations, K-Q is a better overcard holding than A-K, due to the fact that many more players play A-X, either suited or offsuit, and are calling post-flop bets with a pair and an ace kicker.
If you hit and are good, what kind of redraws are out against you? Will one of your pair cards fill a straight, making an opponent a better hand and costing you more money? Is there two of a suit on board, possibly negating some of your wins against an opponent who's holding a flush draw? A flush draw present also provides an opportunity for an opponent holding it to draw out on the river if you catch one of your overcards on the turn that is not the flush suit. How many opponents must you beat? The more opponents you have, the less likely it is that one pair will take down the dough! What is the likelihood that one of your opponents holds a hand that damages your holding because it's better than one pair or makes a better hand than yours if one of your pair cards hit?
Do you have any additional outs? Do you have any backdoor-flush or backdoor-straight potential that strengthens your hand? Do you have a gutshot-straight draw to go with your overcards? Four extra cards that give you the nuts greatly improves the value of your hand. You might have 10 outs over someone with top pair if both of your overcards are live, making you less than a 2-1 underdog if you take the hand to the river. Is there potential additional value to your hand? Is it likely that the hand will be checked on the turn, giving you an additional card, kind of like a two-for-one special? Is it possible that your hand is good, and the way that the hand might play will enable you to get to the river? For example, you hold A-Q and an opponent who might have a draw bets into you, and you can manipulate getting to the river in some way without costing yourself too much.
Another point to consider in assessing the value of your overcards is any additional value that you might gain if you hit and are good. Will your opponent(s) give you action if you hit or is he likely to fold if you hit one of your cards. Assessing the value of this concept is both a function of your opponents' willingness to call and ability to read you for having one of those overcards. You also might gain additional value if you miss! For example, if your opponent is the type who will fold if you hit your overcard, you might call with K-Q as overcards yet bet when an ace hits. Many players will lay down their hand when an ace hits the board. Of course, you should never presume this result, but instead base it on your observation of previous hands. As is the case with all poker decisions, think about how your hand plays and how you can use your opponent's tendencies against him in order for him to defeat himself.
Calling or folding with overcards is a decision that comes up often in limit hold'em. The fine points of analysis of this situation are an essential element of posting positive numbers in your expectation field. If you routinely throw your overcards away without analyzing each situation independently, you are missing many opportunities to extract value from the game. If you routinely call without independent analysis, you undoubtedly are putting money in with the worst of it too often, adding to your negative expectation. Don't fall into the typical player's habit of routinely calling or routinely folding. If you're doing anything at all routinely, you are sacrificing edge - and inasmuch as this situation is one that frequently occurs, that means a lot of edge.
Pick your spots, play those overcards correctly, and watch your bankroll grow!
Roy Cooke has played more than 60,000 hours of winning professional poker since 1972, and has been a Card Player columnist since 1992. His longtime collaborator John Bond is a freelance writer in South Florida. Roy serves as a freelance consultant to the I-poker industry and has a successful Las Vegas real estate brokerage. He has written six poker books, which are available from www.conjelco.com/cooke. His website is www.roycooke.com.
