If you don't think realistically, you probably can't be a long-term winner, and you certainly will win less than an equally talented but more realistic player. Powerful psychological, cultural, and social forces make all of us deny some realities about ourselves, our opponents, and poker's essential nature. This column can help you to reduce these forces' effects, but you can never completely overcome them. As I wrote in Part I, everyone cherishes and clings to some illusions.
Winners Laws
Four simple rules can help you to become more realistic:
1. Admit that you overestimate your abilities and other virtues.
We all make this mistake to protect our egos. We want to believe that we are more talented, disciplined, and so on than we really are. If you were born after about 1965, this natural tendency has been reinforced by the "build self-esteem" movement. In fact, this movement is so powerful that it has even affected some older people.
You probably have gotten grades and praise that you didn't deserve, and been spared criticism that you really needed. You have been told countless white lies about how good you are, and you naturally believed them. You want to believe that you can be or do anything, that there are no limits on your future, but it's nonsense. Everyone has limitations, and you must accept and work within them.
2. Admit that you have some unrealistic expectations.
Some people have told me that they expect to become top players, despite having no evidence that they have the extreme abilities and commitment needed. And I can't count the number of mediocre players who are thinking of quitting their day jobs to turn pro. In fact, some mediocre players already have turned pro and - thanks to the poker boom - are making a living. When the boom ends, they will be terribly disappointed. Not only will they stop making a living from poker, but - because of the "hole" in their resumes - they may be unable to get a good job.
You have to recognize that fantasies aren't reality, that the odds against making it as a pro are very high, and they are astronomical against your becoming a top player. Shortly before the poker explosion, two members of the Wednesday Poker Discussion Group (who have
World Series of Poker bracelets and are very well-known) were asked, "What are an
excellent middle-limit player's chances of making it as a full-time pro?" One said 50-to-1 and the other suggested 200-to-1.
The odds against becoming a top player are enormous. Just look at the numbers. Tens of millions of people play poker, but only a few hundred are top players.
When you were a child, you probably fantasized about being a professional basketball player, model, or billionaire entrepreneur. As you grew up and encountered unpleasant realities about yourself and the competition, you got over those fantasies.
Poker fantasies are harder to resist because it
looks so easy to become a top player. There are no educational requirements or qualifying exams. You don't have to be extremely tall, muscular, or good-looking. You see top players on television who don't
look that different from you. But they are as different from you and me as Tiger Woods is from the better players in your local golf club. So, set aside your fantasies, evaluate yourself and the competition objectively, and decide what you can
realistically expect to accomplish in poker.
3. Get an objective assessment of yourself.
To overcome your own biases, you need objective information. Fortunately, it's easy to get. Thousands of professionals and organizations can assess you on virtually every personal quality, such as general intelligence, math abilities, logical reasoning, and social sensitivity. You can get fairly objective assessments about your poker abilities from coaches, poker buddies, discussion groups, and Internet forums such as the ones at CardPlayer.com.
If you actively participate in the discussions, people often will disagree and tell you where and how your thinking is wrong. You will not like some of this feedback, but you can't plan your poker development without objective information. Of course, you have to be open-minded enough to accept this information, especially when you dislike it.
4. Select your games very carefully.
Many authorities have said that the most important decision you make is game selection, but far too many people don't believe it. In fact, they may not think carefully about it. If a seat is open, they take it, and then can't understand why their results are disappointing. If you choose the right games - the ones with weaker players - you will win. Conversely, if you ignore or deny reality and pick games with tougher players, you will lose.
You also should pick games that fit your style. Two players of equal abilities may have quite varied results in different types of games. Player A does well in ramming, jamming games, but poorly in rock gardens. Player B has the opposite pattern. If you keep good records, you will learn how you do in various types of games. I urge you to use Card Player Analyst (CPA) at www.CardPlayer.com to record your results. You can quickly compare your results in various kinds of games. Then, use your CPA data to pick the right ones. It really is that simple.
Where Do You Stand?
This rating scale is concerned
only with realism about poker. Don't consider your private political, religious, or social beliefs. Circle the number that best describes your agreement with this statement:
For poker-related issues, I am brutally realistic. I do everything possible to prevent my wishes and biases from distorting my perceptions.
7. Agree strongly
6. Agree
5. Agree somewhat
4. Neutral
3. Disagree somewhat
2. Disagree
1. Disagree strongly.
Then answer two questions:
• What are the implications of my self-rating?
• What should I do differently?
The Critical Question
Carefully review the Winners Laws and your self-ratings, and then answer the critical question:
What should I do to become a bigger winner?
Then, discuss your answer with someone you trust, take good notes, and review all of this information regularly.
To learn more about yourself and other players, you can buy Dr. Schoonmaker's book, Your Worst Poker Enemy, at www.CardPlayer.com.
