Hi. Come on in. I picked up a couple of quarts of medium-hot chili and a large loaf of sourdough bread to tear apart and dip into the chili. Start tearing and dipping.
"Of course I believe in luck. How else do you explain the success of people you don't like?" (Chinese proverb)
We haven't talked much lately about the "luck" factor versus skill in our beloved game. I bring this up because I often am asked by inquiring students who are thinking of taking lessons if it's really worthwhile studying the game to obtain poker skill when there is so much luck in the game. So, tape the next paragraph to your refrigerator door as an everyday reminder.
Poker, especially at the low and medium limits, is a game of luck, a gamble, even for the skillful player,
on an hourly or daily basis - but
not in the long run. The best players in the world, at any limits, sometimes lose, because there is a short-term luck factor in poker by which the bad player can get lucky for a while. However, it usually doesn't last long for him. The skillful player, not relying on luck, wins more sessions than he loses, and wins more than the unskilled player does when that player does manage a win. And the skilled player almost always comes out a winner over a period of months and years.
Many times at the poker table, we all have heard the phrase, usually after some unknowing bozo has won a big pot with a miracle draw, "I'd rather be lucky than good." So, I've asked many professional poker players, "Would you rather be skillful or lucky?" The answers always have been in favor of skill rather than luck. What really brought it home to me was what Buster Jackson said:
"I'll take skill, because skill repeats and luck doesn't."
Your luck comes and goes, but your skill is with you every day. So, in the long term, good players do beat bad players. It's as simple as that.
I have been a lucky player right from day one, and also have made a study of the game to acquire whatever skills I do have. And over the years, I have adopted the philosophy, and I suggest that you do the same, "A loss on any given day is meaningless." You'll get it back tomorrow or the next day if you hold your patience and discipline.
For you sports-minded folks, let's look at luck from another angle. The game is baseball. Roger Clemens is pitching to me. I have
no chance of getting a hit off him in 100 tries,
unless I get very lucky and just happen to swing my bat in the right place at the right time to eke out a scratch single. I would
have to get lucky. But if Roger and I were to play poker, a game at which I assume he does not have a high skill level, I would beat him consistently, except when
he got lucky and outdrew me on a long shot. And he would have a
much better chance of doing that than I would have of getting a hit off him. There's a much higher luck factor, in the short or long term, in poker than in baseball. ("Skill repeats and luck doesn't.")
For those of you who play mostly for recreation, you should realize that something that can affect your luck factor is playing just to be playing. And even those of you who are serious about poker and are playing to get the money, play seriously. If you enter the poker game just because it's Tuesday and there's nothing that you enjoy on television, you probably won't enjoy what happens to you in the cardroom, either. Playing out of boredom just adds another obstacle to your path of success, and you'll probably end up "unlucky" for that session.
In
limit poker, your winning or losing depends not only on your skill, but on
the fall of the cards. That's the luck factor in the game - and you can't do anything about that. But your job is not to moan about the cards you are getting, but to play those cards the best that you can.
Here's another example: Your opponent starts with aces while you start with kings. Who is most likely to win? Aces, of course. But if you have the aces and he has the kings, who is most likely to win? You, of course. So, who is the "better" player? That's the short-term luck factor.
You can hone your skills to a fine edge and be mentally and physically ready, and still get your butt kicked by the fall of the cards. You've seen players who generally can't win their hat size, but one night they win $400 in a $2-$4 game. Credit the
short-term luck factor. When you are playing well and using your poker skills, and still lose, it's the fall of the cards that beats you. (Feel better now?)
Play your best poker in the long run, and learn to live with the short-term luck factor. Think long term.
I should have given you a bib. Red chili on a white shirt - what a mess. Take a baggy full for your breakfast and kill the light on your way out.
Roy West, poker author, continues giving his successful poker lessons in Las Vegas for tourists and locals. Ladies are welcome.
