Many years ago, the courts in California ruled that poker is a game of skill - not a gambling game of chance. Today, many of the largest public cardrooms in the world are in California. And there are probably more "poker pros" (especially retirees who supplement their pensions) in California cardrooms than anyplace else in the world, including Las Vegas.
But on May 1, 2007, the Court of Appeals in North Carolina (three judges) ruled that poker is a game of chance - not a game of skill. Hence, a 2004 application to open a public poker club in Durham was denied because North Carolina law prohibits gambling and wagering on games of chance.
It is true that there is a lot of luck in poker. The North Carolina state witness cited a poker hand that he watched on television in which a 91 percent favorite suffered a bad beat. We all have lost hands in which we were even greater favorites than that. The North Carolina court ruled that chance dominates skill in poker, and thus poker is a game of chance. But just because luck determines the outcome of any one hand, it does
not follow that luck dominates skill in poker!
Note that the element of luck is present in just about all games. Can a twig or stiff blade of grass deflect a golf ball away from the cup or toward the cup? They say that professional tennis is a "game of inches." Is it skill that determines whether a tennis ball lands one inch inside or outside the line? Or, whether the linesman sees it correctly?
In all big-league sports, any team can "get the breaks" and win any one specific baseball, basketball, or football game. And there is obviously much luck in a "suicide squeeze," a last-minute half-court shot, or a "Hail Mary" pass. So, are professional sports "games of chance"? Of course not! Why? Because the best teams win the most games in the long run. And the best teams usually make it to the playoffs. Skill and talent clearly dominate luck in the long run.
Chess is sometimes cited as a game of pure skill. But any expert who can routinely look ahead five or six moves on each likely variation will admit that what actually happens after nine or 10 moves on any delicate variation is often a matter of luck. And in contract bridge, universally proclaimed to be a game of skill and perhaps "the most complex game ever devised by man," there is certainly a large element of chance in what cards actually appear in your partner's hands, which cards are "on side" or "off side," and even how well your opponents judge or guess to play.
In all of the above-mentioned games, there is certainly an element of luck, but skill and talent clearly have the dominant impact on overall results. Luck can affect what happens on any one play or game, but the best teams/players come out on top in the long run. And that is exactly what happens at the poker table, also. The most skillful players usually win - and always win in the long run. Why? Simply because poker is indeed a game of skill.
And a fair measure of the level of skill of any poker player can be determined by keeping track of his session results and hours played after some fairly large number of sessions. It is generally accepted that an excellent hold'em player (or a "professional") averages about one to two big bets per hour in limit hold'em. For example, in a typical $10-$20 limit hold'em game, a skillful player will normally average about $30 an hour. A very skillful expert (especially in a very favorable game) would average even more.
In many of my columns and books about Omaha high-low, I have stated that in a typically loose Omaha high-low game, a skillful player should average about two and a half to three big bets per hour (according to "Cappelletti's Rule," a loose game is defined as one in which an average of five or more players are seeing the flop). Judging from my own observations and "fan mail" conversations that I have had over the past several years, I can estimate that there are at least several hundred skillful Omaha players who are making money each month playing the game.
Thus, it is so apparent that, overall, skill dominates luck in poker, that the North Carolina court should have taken judicial notice that poker is indeed a game of skill - perhaps citing the California court decisions and because it is well-known that many professional poker players make their living playing poker. Note that with "games of chance," there simply are no professional players. It would be impossible to make a steady living by playing dice or roulette - because luck is the dominant factor. We all hope that the North Carolina case is appealed - since it probably would be reversed by any higher court.
Formerly a career lawyer with the U.S. Department of Justice, Mike Cappelletti has written numerous books on poker and bridge, and is considered to be one of the leading authorities on Omaha. Mike has also represented the U.S. in international bridge competition, and he and his wife were featured in a four-page Couples Section in People magazine. His books include Cappelletti on Omaha, Poker at the Millennium (with Mike Caro), and Omaha High Low Poker.
