Reading Levels of Thought

As you become more sophisticated, one of your tasks will be reading your opponents' abilities. A common error is to assume that everyone thinks the way you do. For example, if you raise and an opponent calls, you may put him on the range of hands with which you would call. It may not occur to you that the opponent doesn't think the way you would, and may have a considerably weaker holding than you would.

This "thinking down" requires you to understand the various thoughts an opponent may have, and to decide which one is most likely. Here is an example I faced recently:

I held the J 10 in the big blind and got a free play against four opponents. My first decision was whether to check or raise from the blind. This is a nice hand with which to raise, as it keeps opponents off balance, and it helps build a pot to provide favorable odds later should I flop a draw. In general, I like to have five or more opponents to make this particular raise. I will make it with fewer opponents if I have a need to exploit or change my current image, but this hand occurred in the first hour, and there was no compelling reason to change my default play.

The flop: After I checked, the flop came J 8 5. I had top pair with a marginal kicker and poor position. Should I check or bet? The flop offered a lot of potential draws. Nothing I did would affect the flush draws and open-end straight draws, but there were a number of normal holdings that would have gutshot draws, including Q-10 and Q-9. Of course, with two suited cards, backdoor flushes were also likely. Additionally, my hand was vulnerable to overcards.

These considerations indicated that I should try to eliminate opponents. Since nobody had raised preflop, I had no idea who was most likely to bet. Late-position players are more likely to bet, so I checked, hoping that one would lead and I could check-raise to protect my hand.

Instead, a middle-position player who seemed pretty loose bet, and a late-position player raised. I could see a good case for folding, raising, and even calling. If anyone else had a jack, I probably had kicker trouble. I did have backdoor-straight possibilities, but they were not compelling on a two-suited board. But the loose player could be betting with almost anything, and the raiser easily could have a draw and be raising for either a free card or value. Calling would not help me figure anything out, and would let the loose player see the turn for one more bet. It was not clear that I was beat, so I raised to try to get the loose player to fold and take control of the hand.

This partially worked, as the loose player did fold, but the late-position player raised again. Now I had to decide what sort of player he was. Would he raise again with a draw? Did he have a huge hand?

Novices would raise here with a huge hand. Average players would call on the flop with a big hand now that we are heads up, and wait for me to lead at the turn to raise. First, they want to collect a double-bet, and second, they fear that I might be on a draw and they want to see the turn card. So, if they raise, it almost always shows a draw or a weakish hand. More sophisticated players would realize that I am very unlikely to have a draw, and they would raise their big hand here to get me committed to the pot. They also would fear that I might check if a scare card came and they would not be able to get a raise in at all. They might call with a draw and hope to hit cheaply.

(Note that this three-level analysis is vastly simplified.)

I had to decide which play this opponent was making, and what to do about it. From his play so far, he did not seem to be a novice, but he still seemed to be the type who would prefer to trap me on the turn if he held a big hand. Should I reraise?
I decided to wait for the turn. If it was a diamond, the chances that I was ahead would be small, as his most likely draw was a flush and there was still a chance that I was wrong and he had a better hand than mine. Plus, if I did put in four bets, I would not learn much whether he raised or called.

The turn: When the 2 hit the turn, I had to decide whether to bet or check. Before I did, I needed to figure out what a raise would mean here. Again, novice players would raise with a big hand and call with a draw; however, so would most average players. They would figure their free-card play did not work, and they would simply call and wait for the river. However, more sophisticated players might realize that I was in an unsure position, and would raise with their draw to indicate a powerful hand and get me to fold rather than face two more big bets. If he raised, I would need to decide whether I was being tricked, or was simply way behind.

I could check, and hope that he was the aggressive type who would never take a free card if checked to, and would bet any draw, hoping I would fold. However, most players suspect that I will not fold, having three-bet on the flop, and would just take the free card. While he seemed aggressive, I did not think he would bet a draw, so I needed to bet and have to decide what to do if raised. Since he appeared to be average, I decided to fold if I was raised on the turn.

In fact, I did bet, and he just called. Thus, my defense against his free-card raise (if that is what it was) was working.

The river: The 6 hit, which seemed safe enough. Should I bet or check? I already have overrepresented my hand, which is an argument for checking. Another is that if my assessment is correct, he has nothing with which to call. If I am wrong, he is ahead but may check a hand like Q-J. Also, he may bluff a busted draw. With this in mind, I checked, as did he. I won, as he showed a busted flush draw.

Conclusion: This sort of hand can be played a number of ways, and how to play it depends on how you think your opponents will respond. The better you can get at anticipating how they will play and at which level they will think, the better you will do.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold'em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].