As Above, Golf Below

If gambling was an ice-cream parlor, with each flavor a different punt, one of my favorites has got to be golf. I attribute this delicious love affair to my personal preference for the game, and my previous experience as a financials trader. I love to eat it up all weekend, starting on Thursdays, when the weekly PGA tournaments begin.

To me, the four-day golf tournament is nothing more than an options market, with a four-day expiry. Betfair is the market of choice for these options. I think of each golfer as an option with varying settlement values. As in financial trading, finding these values (or over-values) and exploiting them is key for profit generation. Simple enough.

At the end of the four days, the options will expire for either less or more than the price paid for them. In the days before betting exchanges, the only option available was one that backed a golfer. This is much like a "call option," with your profit coming with the player's victory. But the genius and the beauty of Betfair is that it allows one to bet against a golfer, your profit coming from his loss. Essentially, this is like a "put option," a favorite mechanism of short-sellers and hedge funds du jour.

The game of golf is slow enough to allow for careful scrutiny of your players. What makes the game of golf "boring" to watch for the masses is exactly what makes it so exciting to watch for those holding these options. There is plenty of value to be found by an informed investor.

Tips from the pros? It is on rare occasions that a golfer will hold the lead throughout the entire four-day event. Betting against him, especially if he lacks experience, often proves lucrative. The mental strength required to lead and win a pro golf event is often an obstacle too great for a player to overcome.