A River Decision

Recently, I was honored to serve as "Expert of the Month" on Matthew Hilger's forum at InternetTexasHoldem.com. Here is one of the first hands posted to me:

In a PokerStars eighthanded $30-$60 limit hold'em game, I am dealt the Q 10 in the small blind. After three folds, the next player limps in. This is somewhat surprising, as players in this game generally open-raise from late position with pretty much any hand they are going to play. Anyway, the cutoff and the button fold, I complete, and the big blind checks.

My first reaction: I usually prefer raising from the small blind. The limper is probably a weak player, and your Q-10 may well be the best hand. You also may get the big blind to fold, creating some dead money and taking control of the later betting. I explore these concepts in much greater depth in my book, Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy. However, since you simply completed, we will work with that.

The flop is a favorable Q 9 9. You check-raise after the big blind checks and the limper bets. The big blind folds and the limper calls, so you are heads up.

The turn, the 6, doesn't seem to help him, and you bet. He calls.

The river is the 4. Should you check or bet?



Background to the analysis: In general, I do not like hand problems in which you don't know how the opponent plays. In cash games, this is almost always unrealistic, as you will have seen him do something, however minor. I recommend that when playing with strangers, you shouldn't post until you have watched several hands, just to get a preliminary feel for each player.

Here, we need to make some assumptions based on only this hand. He open-limped when most players would automatically raise. He figures to be a weak, passive player, but he could be something else … a very strong, tricky player, for example, who is mixing up his play, though we have not seen his previous actions.

His hand range is also unknown. Most weak players who open-limp have medium or small pairs, medium or small suited connectors, weak aces, suited kings or perhaps queens, or hands like J-10 or Q-J. He could have any two cards, though, because some people play almost every hand and hardly ever raise. We will have to use this typical weak range as the basis for our decision, knowing that we could be wrong in either direction.

Analysis: You have only two options, check or bet, which makes it easier to explore the pros and cons.

Check: The advantages of checking are that you will not face a difficult raise, and you may induce a bluff. Since you will call a bet, if he has a better hand, such as Q-J, you are going to lose this pot whether you check or bet, so it is not an important consideration.

Can he raise you with a hand like A-Q or K-Q? It's very unlikely, because he seems like a passive player, and because he has to worry that you are holding a 9 and have him crushed. As the small blind, you probably would have played a hand like 9-7 suited the same way, charging the maximum on the flop because the board is suited and connected. (Of course, that is only if he thinks that deeply into the hand.)

If he does have a losing hand, what are the chances he will bluff with, say, a busted flush? They seem to be lower than usual because of your assumption that he is a weak, passive player. When you check the river, aggressive, tough players like to bluff because of the favorable pot odds, but passive ones tend to just give up rather than "waste" a bet.

Bet: The advantage is that you will likely gain a call from a hand like 8-8 or A-6 that would check behind you if you check. The primary disadvantage is that you may face a raise from a hand like A-9 or 9-8 that was slow-playing trips. As mentioned before, if you are betting into just a better queen, you probably will lose that bet whether you bet or not, so that circumstance does not enter into this.

Let's look at the possible raise, as that is most troublesome. The two questions are:

• How likely is it?
• What will you do if it happens?

I think it is unlikely, because most players, and especially most weak ones, prefer to raise on the turn. They flat-call the flop to trap you into betting the turn, then close the trap. They do it (1) because they are anxious to make a cool play, and (2) because they are afraid that you will check the river, fearing a raise (as they might), and they want to make sure they do not miss the chance to raise.

If he does raise, what should you do? In truth, the chances that you have the best hand become quite small, and a fold would be reasonable, but I would call anyway. I would rather waste a bet than make a laydown to a total stranger. Having no knowledge of this opponent, I do not know if he raises the river every time he misses. I have no real idea what the odds are, and I will not fold under those circumstances. Yes, my preliminary read is that he is passive, but I am not going to bet the pot on that assumption.

Betting's advantages are clear. You win a bet when he has weak hand and wants to look you up, and he probably will do it because you could be on a missed draw.

Check or bet? Which one should you pick? Betting gains a bet when he has a weaker hand, and loses a bet when you run into a monster and get raised (assuming that you agree with me that you will call it). Checking gains a bet when it induces a bluff, and prevents the raise problem.

Since I consider the raise quite unlikely, I primarily consider the loss of the crying call against the loss of the bluff. Given our assumptions regarding his hand range, he probably holds a losing hand that will pay us off. Since he seems passive, it is less likely that he will bluff with a loser.

Conclusion: Bet the river. Certainly, you will often lose, but most losses will be washes; you will lose whether you check or bet. Betting seems to gain in enough cases that it is the logical choice.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy and collaborator on Limit Hold'em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].