Doing Business in Beijing

By its very nature, the Olympics is a political event. It begins with a celebration of social inclusion, as was intended by Pierre de Coubertin, the man who founded the Olympic Committee in an attempt to bring peace to the world, with athletes from countries that many of us wouldn't have thought would even have athletes, parading around the main arena, waving flags we don't recognise, evoking condescending thoughts along the lines of, "Bless 'em for turning up to give it a go."

With representatives from nearly every country in the world taking part, it would be too much to ask for the event to pass without somebody mentioning some kind of non-sporting related incident. Unfortunately, in the run-up to this year's event in China, we have heard very little about the athletes and a whole lot about China's poor humanitarian record in Tibet, Taiwan, and Darfur.

The transfer of the Olympic flame was blighted by protestors trying to extinguish the modern-day symbol of the games, something which was successfully achieved on a number of occasions but which ultimately has had little effect on the games themselves. All the issues with China were well-known long before they were awarded the honour of hosting the games, and eyebrows have been raised ever since the destination of this summer's games was known, though most of the protesting has come from outside the Olympic fold.

This, of course, is nothing new, with the history of the Olympics being littered with incidents of countries refusing to allow their athletes to take part for reasons beyond the running of a race. Even to this day, Iranian athletes are not allowed to take part in any event in which they come in opposition to an Israeli athlete. While there is no denying that many of the causes that prompted the protests were legitimate, one can't help but be a little saddened at the thought of athletes who have given up so much to pursue their goals of Olympic glory being denied by circumstances beyond their control.

So paranoid has China become that many foreigners who have conducted business in Beijing for several years are suddenly being denied visas for the most trivial of reasons. The real reason is the fear of protestors making their way onto the world's TV screens once the events begin. Even the official mascots, the good-luck dolls, were renamed because officials feared the previous name of the "friendlies" would be mistranslated as friendless or friend lies. As sinister as the backdrop is, it is also important not to let the politics ruin what is the most globally encompassing event in the world, so let's leave the politics to the politicians and instead take a quick look through some of the events and competitors in the 2008 Olympic Games.

No Bolt From the Blue

Athletics: The men's 100 meters has long been the flagship event of track and field, if not the entire Olympic Games, which may say more about the viewing masses than the event itself. The big news this year was the recent world-record run of Usain Bolt, but holding the title of the fastest man on the planet is no surety of success in Beijing.

It's looking like a three-way battle between Bolt, Tyson Gay, and previous world-record holder Asafa Powell. Gay led the other two home in the World Championships in Osaka last year, and despite Bolt's record, it's the American's consistency and ability to produce in the big races that makes him the favourite for both the 100-meter and 200-meter events.

Avoid backing the world record to tumble again in China; if you are tempted, make it a small bet, as the pressure of the event tends to restrict the times somewhat.

The title of quickest man in the world whilst jumping over stuff will go the China's own Liu Xiang. He won his country's first-ever track and field gold in Athens and has since followed that up with gold in both the indoor and outdoor World Championships, even managing to squeeze in a new world-record time along the way.

The women's 100 meters is set to be even closer than the men's. Reigning champion Veronica Campbell added the World Championships gold to her collection in Osaka last year, but did so by the narrowest of possible margins, and while it's always smart to go for the proven winner in a close contest, if the price is right, a bet on her main rival, Lauryn Williams, is certainly not a foolish one.

Court Up at Last

Basketball: When the USA started sending its top NBA stars in 1992, the "Dream Team" was a nightmare as far as the spirit of competition was concerned. However, the Americans' failure to even make the final broke their stranglehold on the event. They will, of course, be the favourites again in Beijing, but countries like Argentina, European Champion Russia, and World Champion Spain will all fancy their chances.

Spain in particular has a few of its own NBA stars, and with the world title under its belt, it could be the one to awaken the most recent incarnation of the Dream Team to the fact that basketball is a growing sport around the world, and Harlem Globetrotter-like exhibitions from USA teams are a thing of the past.

Unfortunately, there's less hope of an upset in the women's event. The continued growth of the WNBA has seen the standard of the American team rise, and while Australia will put in a good showing, it's difficult to see anything other than a third consecutive U.S. gold in this event.

Spitz and Polish

Swimming: Climbing into the pool again will be American sensation Michael Phelps, who is quite simply a phenomenon. Not since Mark Spitz has someone dominated the event so much, and the question is not if he will win gold in Beijing, but simply how many. In 2004, he fell just short of Spitz's record of seven golds, and the betting this year is on him going one better and beating it. Phelps cleaned up at the World Championships in Montreal last year, and there's a $1 million bonus on the table from his sponsor Speedo to hit the seven mark. The only way to get a value bet is to find a price on him doing just that.

Ball Boys and Girls

Soccer: Much like women's tennis, women's soccer looks relatively easy to predict. Despite the advancements in the game over the last 15 years or so, it is still a long way from having the depth of the men's game.

The USA has won two golds and a silver since the event was introduced, and will go to Beijing as one of the favourites. Brazil, Norway, and Germany complete the quartet from which the winner is all but guaranteed to come, though if you're looking for an outside bet, a cheeky punt on the home nation may prove a stroke of genius. The Chinese will be desperate to impress, and though they are still a second-tier team, you can bet that they've been working harder for success in this tournament than any other. Let us not forget South Korea in the men's World Cup in 2002. Different sex, perhaps, but the same mentality, motivation, and preparation could reap similarly impressive results.

The age restrictions added to the hectic club schedules of the top young players in the men's event makes it necessary to look to the recent youth tournaments for an indication as to where the winner will come from. Argentina is the reigning U-20 world champion, and they'll take pretty much the same squad to Beijing, so, despite what BBC pundit Alan Hansen thinks, the South Americans are on course to win a second major honour with this group of kids.

Net the Usual

Tennis: The immediate quandary for most people in the tennis world is whether to go for Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal. It may not be that clear-cut, though. Federer has a slight edge because of the hard-court surface, but in 2004, he crashed out in the first round, citing the regimen and overly exposed nature of life in the Olympic village as the reasons for his failure.
Will he be any more comfortable in Beijing? That doesn't necessarily mean Nadal is a cert, though. The last two gold-medal winners, Kafelnikov in 2000 and Massu in 2004, were good players but not the best in the world, which indicates that it's worth having a look outside the usually unstoppable duo, especially with their low odds needing a big bet to see a decent return.

Defending champ Massu needs a wild card to take part, but should he receive one, he's unlikely to make the dramatic improvement needed to make it two in a row. The double gold medallist in Athens has dropped from ninth to 123rd in the four-year interim, so even if he gets to play, he's not worth backing.

Andy Murray has had a bit of a roller-coaster season, but there's been a definite improvement in his game. Four of his five Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) titles to date have come on hard surfaces, so while British fans may dream of the young Scot winning Wimbledon, an Olympic gold is far more likely, and with prices around 20/1 on offer, a small risk could really pay off. He's also competing in the doubles with his brother, Jamie, and a bet on him emulating Massu with wins in the singles and doubles is worth a speculative punt.

Another player worth looking at is American James Blake. His success has come almost entirely on hard courts, with 10 wins and nine runner-up finishes on his record, and if he's as desperate to do well as he claims, he should be viewed as a serious contender in Beijing.

The retirement of Justine Henin-Hardenne opens things up a little in the women's event, and the woman who temporarily took her number-one spot, Maria Sharapova, has been similarly vocal about her intentions to take gold. Unlike the men's event, this one has been far more predictable, so stick to the obvious choices. Sharapova or the rising star Ivanovic are the two most obvious, and while neither will offer great value as far as their odds go, they look the best bets to, excuse the pun, give you a return.

Elsewhere: Perhaps not an event too many people will consider betting on, but in the triathlon, there could be money to be made. Prices won't be available until closer to the event, as qualification is ongoing, but Javier Gomez is likely to be one of the favourites. The Spanish star of the triathlon world had a sensational 2007, with four world titles, including a win in the Beijing event, a first place in the European Championships, as well as a second place in the World Championships. If you can get a decent price, his previous win in Beijing could see you cash in.

Another bet worth taking is China to top the medal charts. Naturally, the USA is the favourite in this market, but with the eyes of the world on China, they will be determined to prove they are a match for the mighty Americans. This could lead to some surprise wins, so if you're the type who likes to punt on long shots, look for the Chinese athletes -- but if they do come in, you may want to withdraw your winnings before the results of the urine tests come back.