The Oracle's Corner

This hand comes from a $25-$50 pot-limit Omaha (PLO) cash game on Full Tilt. PLO is enjoying a growth in popularity both online and live. There is considerably more gamble and thought involved in a four-card game, in which you must use two cards from your hand, than there is in no-limit hold'em. This hand involves a winning no-limit hold'em player, Zachary Hyman, who is very successful on the tournament circuit and in high-stakes no-limit hold'em cash games. It involves an online situation in which he has dry aces (not suited) and a suited K-6. Zach is relatively new to PLO, and because of this, he may have overplayed his hand a little.



Facts of the Hand

Event: $25-$50 pot-limit Omaha (PLO) cash game on Full Tilt

Players at the Table: 9

Blinds: $25-$50

Zach Hyman's Chip Count/Hand: $5,000/ A A K 6

Stack Sizes at the Table: $2,000-$12,000

Players' Images: Not well-established, but hey, it's PLO, and everybody wants to play

Michael Binger's Analysis

This is a typical situation that occurs in PLO: You have two aces and have to decide whether to reraise or just call. The variables that need to be considered are your position, the number of players, your stack size and those of your opponents, and, most importantly, the side cards with your two aces. With something like A-A-J-10 double-suited, you can reraise from any position into any number of players and with any size stacks. However, more ordinary aces, like Zach's A A K 6, need to be played more cautiously. You are not going to flop big very often with this hand, and by reraising, you will have given away half of your hand, unless your opponents think you are capable of making this reraise with hands that don't have two aces. Moreover, since you are out of position, you will have to decide whether to commit the rest of your stack before seeing anyone else act. Zach could put in only about 20 percent of his stack by reraising, which is a very precarious situation. One or more players will call him preflop, and after the flop, the pot will be so big that Zach feels committed to put in the rest of his stack on many flops. His opponents will then have a relatively easy decision, since there is no more betting and they know more or less what Zach has. For these reasons, I prefer just smooth-calling preflop. Given that he did reraise in this hand and was called by everyone, what should he do on the flop? This is a tough spot. It's true that he has very few outs to the nuts. However, with more than $5,000 in the pot and less than $4,000 left, I think he has to ship it and pray (again, this is precisely why not to reraise preflop). If he is called by a set or two pair, he still has plenty of outs to improve. If he is called by the nut-flush draw plus straight draw, his two aces still have a reasonable chance of holding up. The only disaster scenario is when he is up against a better made hand and a better draw, like someone with the A Q Q J, or perhaps he is called by two players, one with the made hand and one with the big draw. In these cases, he could be drawing almost dead, but I don't think this will happen often enough to justify check-folding. Mathematically, we need the EV (expected value) of going all in to be greater than zero, EV(AI)>0. This is quite generally the case for reasonable assumptions. For example, let's say that 25 percent of the time, everyone folds to his all-in bet; 50 percent of the time, one player calls; and 25 percent of the time, two players call. When one player calls, let Zach's probability of winning be W. When two players call, let's say very conservatively that he has only a 10 percent chance of winning. Then:

EV(AI) = (0.25 x 5,250) + [0.50 x (W x 9,200 - (1 - W) x 3,950)] + [0.25 x (0.1 x 13,150 - 0.9 x 3,950)] = (6,575 x W) - 1,222.5.

This will be greater than zero when W>0.186. This means that Zach needs just an 18.6 percent chance of winning against a single caller to justify moving all in on the flop. I would guess that Zach's hand has at least 30 percent equity against a single caller, on average. Playing around with different assumptions doesn't change the overall conclusion: ship it and pray.

Roy Winston's Analysis

The flop comes Q-10-4 with two spades, and you ask yourself, what have I done? Where do I begin? To start with, I would pick a lower limit as a beginning PLO player, and would buy in for the minimum. I think you can buy in for 20 big blinds or $1,000. Unlike no-limit hold'em, in PLO, you are going to be putting your whole stack at risk much more often, and without the nuts. You have to be prepared to put it all in sometimes preflop, and often on the flop, without being an 80 percent favorite like you can be in no-limit hold'em. So, one strategy that I like, and employ on occasion, is to buy in for the minimum and have reloads available instead of sitting deep. Deep-stack PLO is a much riskier adventure than deep-stack no-limit hold'em. In fact, we have been playing much more PLO at Commerce Casino, and it is interesting to see the migration of experienced no-limit hold'em players who bring their entire stacks with them. Once you gain a certain familiarity with the game, sitting 50 or 100 big blinds deep may work well, but to quote Layne Flack, "With PLO, dipping your toe rather than diving in is usually a better idea." That comes from a player I wouldn't describe as being timid. So, back to the hand in question, my play would have been to only call preflop. Although you have aces, they are "dry" aces and not suited, and although you have a flush draw, it is not to the nuts. In PLO, you want to put yourself in position to make the nuts, and with a five-way pot, it is unlikely that your flush draw is live. So, now you have a gutshot for the nut straight. An ace coming is probably no good, because someone else will make a straight, unless you can get the ace and have the board pair. And you have a flush draw that might get you a second-place finish. By just calling the $175 preflop, you can easily release the hand and wait for a better spot. Alternatively, if you are all in or almost all in, you hope for the best, but with more than $5,000 in the pot and almost $4,000 still behind, you're pretty much done. You may get lucky if a jack comes and you most likely chop the pot with someone, or you may hit the magical ace and pair the board, and feel like a hero. In any event, I wouldn't re-pot preflop with dry aces. Zach was out of position and gave away his hand. He moved all in on the flop and made someone's day when the board bricked out.

Zach Hyman's Rebuttal

My intent with the preflop pot-sized reraise was to thin the field and hopefully get it heads up. In life and poker, sometimes things don't always go as planned. Based on my draw on the flop and perhaps hoping my opponents would fold to the pressure, I went with the pot-sized flop bet. It went bad both ways when they called and I missed. I love PLO.

Pro Conclusions

Zach Hyman has a lot of heart, as a player and as a person in general, which is one of the things that makes him successful in life and poker. In this case, when out of position with dry aces, take it easy preflop and leave yourself more options after the flop. There was no need for Hyman to go broke here.