The Wager Zoneby Card Player News Team | Published: Oct 24, 2008 |
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The Ten Commandments
By Noel Hayes
Autumn sees the National Hunt season in the UK and Ireland get under way in earnest. This month we look at the top 10 horses to watch over the coming season and give you pointers on where to place your money as the road to Cheltenham starts to unwind.
Denman - Top-class novice hurdler, later top-class novice chaser, and now the reigning Gold Cup hero. His ascendancy through the ranks has been sublime. Carefully campaigned by his excellent handler, Paul Nicholls, he has been defeated only once in his illustrious career, and that was in the quality Sun Alliance Hurdle.
This horse didn't so much sneak onto the scene as a second-season chaser, rather he burst through the front door flanked by his exceptional allies of stamina and sound jumping. He destroyed the field in Newbury's traditional season opener, the Hennessy Gold Cup, before capturing the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown and the Aon Chase back at Newbury.
What we had seen to this point was but an aperitif for his outstanding display in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, where he jumped and galloped his rivals into submission before finally prevailing as a seven-length winner. The world is at his feet this season, and racing fans hold their breath in anticipation.
Katchit - The old debate of 5-year-olds and former Triumph Hurdle winners not being able to cut the mustard at the championship level was yet again set alight last season. In the past, outstanding juvenile hurdlers such as Detroit City have tried and failed, but that was until the baton was passed to the Alan King-trained Katchit.
This horse is nothing if not tenacious. His willingness to put his head down and battle to the line has now been proven without doubt, as has his liking for the rolling hills of Cheltenham. It appears that the tough climb to the finish line brings out the best in Katchit, and he can claim five wins from six starts at the track, and those victories include two of the festivals highlights, the Triumph Hurdle and now a Champion Hurdle. His only defeat at Cheltenham came when he failed to give 4 pounds to his older rival Osana, but he subsequently reversed this off-level weight in the Festival showpiece.
Looking ahead, the two-mile hurdlers appear to be a pretty mixed bunch, and it looks likely to be left to Katchit, Osana, and Binocular to dominate these races over the winter months. As they are all young horses, they are likely to continue their rate of improvement over the coming season, and a new wave of two-mile hurdlers appears to have arrived on the scene.
Master Minded - Having unseated his rider on his first start in England, not many would have thought that just three races later, they would see this animal put in one of the most impressive combinations of speed and accurate jumping when landing the Queen Mother Champion Chase. This performance was special, as he beat the reigning champion Voy Por Ustedees by an astonishing 19 lengths in a display that was to see him rewarded with an official handicap mark of 186, and with it, the mantle of the highest-rated chaser in training.
Suspicions that he was a pure two-miler were confirmed when he found the two-mile four-furlong trip of Aintree's Mumm Melling Chase beyond him, and it would be folly not to forgive him this blemish.
The coming season is an exciting one for connections and fans of this horse. Last year there was a sense of unknown, a sense of wonder at what he could achieve. Having routed the opposition at Cheltenham in March, this season he will carry with him an air of expectation - the expectation that he will put in a number of performances from the top drawer that can only leave his opposition grabbing at his coattails.
Venalmar - I get most animated when I start to wonder just how good a horse will be when it starts to jump fences. This time around, the horse that makes me wonder most is Venalmar. Having finished a gallant second in the Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, the future looks bright for this son of Kayf Tara in the coming months.
His ascendancy to the top of the novice hurdling ranks was a slow one, and one that his handler, Mouse Morris, is all too familiar with. It smacks of education and an eye on the future, and the future is soon to arrive as everything about this horse screams that he will be in his element when he graduates from hurdling to jumping fences this coming season.
Soft ground seems just fine for this horse, and that should ensure that he will have a host of opportunities to display his talent. Before connections turn their eye to the Cheltenham Festival and a crack at the Sun Alliance Novice chase, the medium-term target is likely to be the PJ Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas festival. Hold your breath, folks; if you don't, this horse just might take it away.
Trafford Lad - Despite not winning again from three attempts after capturing Navan's Grade 1 Barry & Sandra Kelly Novice Hurdle, he proved that his victory in the race was no fluke with three fine efforts later in the season, which included a third place in the Ballymore Properties Hurdle, where he finished four lengths and one place behind the above-mentioned Venalmar.
His trainer, Dusty Sheehy, has been looking for a good novice chaser to replace former stable stalwarts Rathgar Beau and Satco Express, and he looks to have just the candidate here. In keeping with stable tradition, we are sure to see this chap early and often this season, and he is a likely type to pick up numerous novice chasers around the country tracks.
Middleton Dene - Not included for his exploits on the track last season, but for what he may achieve over the coming season. This horse has always looked to me like one that would enjoy jumping a fence, and, fingers crossed, he will get the opportunity over the coming season.
I say fingers crossed as this Nicky Richards-trained inmate is owned by one Duncan Davidson, and as the owner, he bestows the job of riding the horse upon his daughter, Rose, and we all know that jumping hurdles is safer than jumping fences, so the decision to turn to chasing will not be made lightly. Others will make more of this than I will because it doesn't worry me that she will ride the horse; she has proved more than capable thus far, and the bookmakers are likely to offer more generous odds, as they may foolishly dismiss this jockey's ability.
Nicky Richards is based in the north of England and seldom sends his horses south to the higher-class chases. This horse looks streets ahead of the typical northern novice chaser, and he should have plenty of match practice and victories before finally making his way toward Cheltenham and Aintree.
Cousin Vinny - When I was growing up, one of my favourite films was My Cousin Vinny, as I loved the cheeky style of Joe Pesci. Now that I think I've grown up, one of my favourite horses is the champion bumper performer from last season, the well-named Cousin Vinny. In the expert care of Willie Mullins, this horse did nothing but surprise last season with three wins from three starts, including the Champion Bumper at both Cheltenham and Punchestown.
Film buffs surely chuckled when on his debut victory at Punchestown last February, the runner-up was ironically named An Innocent Man. There was nothing to chuckle about at the manner of his victory in Cheltenham, when he ran strongly up the hill to secure victory under the inexperienced Patrick Mullins, son of the astute trainer.
There will be hype aplenty surrounding this horse as he embarks upon his campaign as a novice hurdler, and from what we have seen thus far, the hype will be well-justified. As ever, the long-term target will be Cheltenham, and in this chap's case, it looks likely to be the shorter Supreme Novice Hurdle.
Time Electric - This chap falls into the "dark horse" category. The bumper he won on his debut has since failed to produce another winner, and subsequently, he was well beaten in Navan. So, his credentials as a horse to follow for the season are questionable, to say the least.
Key to this horse is decent underfoot conditions; his Navan defeat came on heavy ground, and this season as he tackles hurdles and steps up to intermediate distances, if good or good-to-soft ground is prevailing, I expect this horse will be a force to be reckoned with.
Physically, he looked the sort to improve with time, and his breeding suggests that the best is yet to come. Tom Mullins is the lesser spoken of the Mullins brothers when it comes to training horses, but I have every confidence that he will feature prominently in the headlines over the course of the coming season, thanks to Time Electric.
Corskeagh Royale - Noel Meade is well-known for hosting a stable of talented horses, and in the coming season, he has this handsome son of Beneficial to look forward to. Boasting two wins and a handful of placed efforts, including the above-mentioned Cousin Vinny, this horse will surely benefit from expert placing by his handler as he embarks on his career as a novice hurdler.
Many of the horses mentioned here will eventually clash, but there are lots of races to share around, and this chap will also get his share.
Roll Along - Carl Llewellyn has a small but promising bunch of horses in his care at Weathercock House, and this animal was one of the highlights of last season when he finished runner-up to Albertas Run in the Sun Alliance Novice Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
Still lightly raced and largely unexposed as a chaser, this horse looks an ideal candidate for the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury. He jumps well, but he does have one prerequisite in order to produce a good performance, and that is his requirement for decent underfoot conditions. Good jumping ground is ideal, but he also acts well with a little bit of ease. If his trainer places him well, he should be capable of capturing a number of intermediate chases; he may even surprise one or two onlookers.
A League of Champions
By Rick Deere
Thanks to Dirk Kuyt's late strike against Standard Liege in Anfield, AC Milan were the only one of the usual suspects missing from the Champions League group stages draw in Monaco. The Rossoneri will have to slum it in the UEFA Cup this season. Liverpool looked far from impressive against the Belgian champions, but then they did just scrape through back in August 2004, as well, so it's business as usual from this point on. After the long and overly complex drawing of balls from pots, the eight groups that were formed offer plenty of big games between old rivals, but a mix of the seeding and a bit of luck meant it failed to kick up a clear-cut group of death.
The old maxim that there are no easy games at this stage will be spouted in various languages around Europe as long as any unfanciable sides remain in the competition, but some managers need to believe it more than others. There are a few unknown debutants along with some more well-known dark horses who will be looking to create an upset or two in this year's competition, and with more than a couple of the bigger clubs struggling to live up to their reputations, the betting this year is on the underdogs to mark their territory.
Group A
Luis Their Inhibitions
Having to rewatch his penalty miss from the Champions League final in Moscow would have soured John Terry's enjoyment of seeing his side land what should be considered as one of the handier groups for the top-seeded team. Chelsea, Terry in particular, will be driven on by last season's defeat, and with Scolari in charge and the creativity of Deco and Robinho on board, Chelsea are perhaps better set up for success in the Champions League than the Premier League this year.
The fitness of Didier Drogba will play a big role in both competitions. Anelka hasn't settled at the club and is a poor and lightweight replacement for the powerful Ivorian. The issue isn't just Drogba's goals. Despite sensationally missing out on Robinho, the addition of Deco to Lampard, Ballack, and Cole means they have one of the most potent midfields in Europe. It's his ability to bully defenders and panic backlines. Drogba is one of the best in the world at holding up the ball, and without the option of playing the quick long pass forward, teams will be able to clog up the midfield and prevent Chelsea from playing through them. With Drogba fit and in better humour than he was for much of last season, Chelsea will cruise through this group, racking up a few routs on the way, so any bets placed on them now will be slashed in price by the time the knockout stages roll around.
In CFR Cluj, the Blues will face a side making their first appearance in the big show, having qualified directly as Romanian champions, sparing them the pitfalls of the qualification stages. That also means they have yet to be tested in European waters. Although the CFR squad is dominated by foreign players, there is little resembling top-level experience amongst the raft of Brazilian, Argentinian, and Portuguese nationals. They're not even playing particularly well in their own league at the moment, and while they may raise themselves enough to cause Bordeaux and Roma a few nervous moments, Chelsea will prove a step too far. The runner-up spot is most likely to be between the French and the Italians. Laurent Blanc's limited Bordeaux will struggle with the physical strength of Chelsea, but they will view CFR as a team they can beat home and away. Roma are certainly in the French side's league, and the Italians' summer signings hardly promise great improvements, though their habit of coming second could see them through. If Totti has a couple of his good days against Bordeaux, then Roma will be joining Chelsea in the next round, and Bordeaux hope to beat CFR to the UEFA Cup place.
Group B
Very Inter-esting Development
Internazionale Milano boss Jose Mourinho will be even happier than his former club after landing in one of the easiest groups. Having added the pace and strength of Quaresma and Muntari to his team, the "special one" will hope to inject some life into a team that had grown stale in a league that is badly in need of a Renaissance to lift itself out of the doldrums of corruption. One of the most interesting players is the returning Adriano. The Brazilian striker is in need of some of that Mourinho man-management magic, and if the Portuguese slickster can get Adriano back to his best, then Inter will have the direct attacking power that the ageing Vieira and Figo and the lumbering Cruz and Ibrahimovic have been unable to provide. As a club that is ideally suited to Mourinho's more defensive style of play, it shouldn't take long before the Champions League winner beds in and starts to get results from his players. Qualification from this group shouldn't prove too great an obstacle, with perhaps the odd away loss in Greece and maybe a draw in Germany, but if Mourinho gets things clicking quickly, then he may lead another side out in a Champions League final.
Anorthosis, like CFR in Group A, are making their bow amongst Europe's elite, but unlike the Romanians, the Cypriot side have already caused a shock by beating Olympiacos in the qualifiers. Hailed as the greatest achievement in Cypriot football, expectations of qualification will be rightly low. Picking up a win and a couple of draws would be a decent debut. Historically, the German side would be a favourite to qualify, but Werder Bremen has a weak squad, and their poor start to the Bundesliga suggests more quality was needed to be brought in over the summer. They do have a potential star in Diego, however, and if he shines in this tournament and leads Bremen to the knockout stage, then he won't stay in Germany too much longer. Panthinaikos are a similarly decent team, but may need to beat Bremen twice if local rivals Anorthosis raise their game for their derby.
Group C
Still in a Bit of a Messi?
The appointment of Pep Guardiola is a risky one for Barcelona, and handing the reins over to an untried and inexperienced former player smacks more of hope than expectation from board at the Camp Nou. What in previous years would look to be a straightforward proposition could turn into a potential embarrassment for the Catalan club. After a disastrous season, it can't be argued that changes were needed, and the departures of Rijkaard and Ronaldhino didn't meet with many protests in Spain. The problem is that they haven't done anything to rebuild a team that has gone badly downhill over the last three seasons. Messi is brilliant but brittle, Henry looks like a square peg in a round hole when he plays, and Eto'o will probably start looking to leave as soon as things go wrong. It's hard to see what the addition of Hleb, the former Arsenal man, brings to a midfield filled with identically diminutive ball players. Shaktar Donetsk look a handy side and they have a touch of Brazilian flare that could see them a formidable side at home. Sporting Lisbon and Basel are similarly technically solid teams, and if they take
advantage of Barcelona's frailties, should find themselves in with a chance of qualifying. Good home form and a fit Messi should still be enough to see Barcelona through, but they may not win the group. Donetsk could be a real surprise in Group C.
Group D
Spain to Reign
Having put their fans through the near-annual jittery qualification performance, Liverpool are very much in the running again in Europe. If the internal bickering has been sorted amicably and Benitez has a full squad to choose from, then the Reds could make short work of a testing but winnable group. With Torres and Gerrard fit, then Liverpool are a real force in the Champions League. The Keane-Torres partnership is looking like it's beginning to gel, so if Benitez plays Babel and Rieira out wide and Gerrard and Mascherano in the middle, he may get the balance his side always seems to lack. PSV and Marseille have shown they can put in some good European performances, but with Liverpool's defence and potent attack, there should be only one winner of Group D. The biggest challenge for Benitez is likely to come from his star striker's former club. Despite being a fourth-seeded team, Athletico Madrid are realistic quarterfinalists, and while Benitez' La Liga experience may be enough to get him a couple of results, the Spaniards have the beating of Marseille and PSV, so a small bet on them to win the group is very tempting.
Group E
Mancs for Nothing
The defending champions haven't exactly been given a soft passage through to the last 16, and they will need to be somewhere close to their cavaliering best to escape this group unscathed. Manchester United's main concern is the lack of cover at either end of the pitch. The signing of Dimitar Berbatov gives Alex Ferguson's first 11 a well-balanced and even more dynamic look, and the Bulgarian is a good bet to be the competition's top goalscorer as long as they can maintain their title defence into the last four. That will depend heavily on how lucky United are with injuries, because after Ferdinand and Vidic in defence, the cupboard looks a little bare for Ferguson, and with Saha and Campbell leaving, the front-line will run into similar problems if deprived of the first stars. Whether Ferguson strengthens in January remains to be seen, but only a real run of bad luck with injuries will create enough problems for there to be a big shock in this group, though few points will come easy against Celtic and Villareal. The Scottish Champions caused United a lot of problems when the two teams met in the competition in 2006, and although Strachan's side doesn't measure up man to man, you can be sure they'll rouse themselves for the European nights, especially against one of the old enemy.
Celtic do have the odd spattering of quality in players like McGeady and Nakamura, and will be tricky at the least for any side they play, (there's even a chance of an away win against Aalborg), but even with a couple of wins against the Danish side, the Hoops will do well to get anything from the games in England and Spain, and will do even better to get out of this group. Villareal are dangerous opponents, and if they repeat the form that earned them the runners-up spot in La Liga last season, then they could even end up as the surprise winners of this group. Nothing is expected of Aalborg, but if they are to pick up a scalp, it's most likely to be Celtic's. Barring a series of poor performances, United will top this group, and in the fight for second, it's Villareal who have the edge in quality over Celtic, but on those big European nights at Celtic Park, anything can happen.
Group F
Lyon Tamed by a Surprise Force?
The immediate reaction in this group is to pick Lyon and Bayern Munich to take the top two spots, as being the respective champions of two of the better leagues in Europe, this appears to make sense, but neither the Bundesliga or Ligue 1 are serious powers anymore. Lyon has potential match winners in Benzema and Fred, but there is a lack of real quality, with the defence being a potential problem. Bayern Munich will be well-drilled, and Mark Van Bommel's presence in the middle of the park will be one of the keys to any success, as will be the return of Franck Ribery to full fitness. The Germans should have enough about them to qualify as group winners, but progress beyond the first knockout round will require a favourable draw.
The two lesser-known teams, Fiorentina and Steau Bucharest, are good, solid teams who will be stern opponents, particularly on their home grounds. Adrian Mutu showed in Euro 2008 just why Chelsea bought him in the first place, and after some crucial misses for his country, the Romanian will have a point to prove. If Fiorentina are to make any headway, his goals will be the difference. Qualification is on the cards for the Italians, but in a group that promises to be unpredictable, Steau are worth a small punt to sneak through.
Group G
Gunner Need That Passport
One of the biggest difficulties for Arsene Wenger this season will be the distance his side have to travel in Europe. Porto, Fenerbahce, and Dynamo Kyiv are all very capable sides, though the Ukranians' record in the competition doesn't promise too many great things from them. Fenerbahce made it to last season's quarterfinals, and with Luis Aragones at the helm, they'll be aiming for even greater heights. Turkey showed their ability on the international stage, and with a heavily Turkish-based squad, Fenerbahce are one of the dark horses of the competition. Whether they have enough, particularly going forward, to trouble the elite is in doubt, but their team spirit and the incredible atmosphere in their Istanbul ground could see a repeat of last season's great performance.
Porto are still the Portuguese champions, but they're a selling club, and really talented players don't hang around too long. Technically solid, they are tricky opponents, but Arsenal and Fenerbahce are the stronger teams, and over the course of the mini-league should be backed to claim the top two spots. Arsenal's ambitions beyond the group stages are in bigger doubt. Wenger's refusal to make enough significant signings leaves him typically overbalanced by young players. As talented as they may be, there's no substitute for experience in the Champions League, and the signing of Mikael Silvestre as general defensive cover doesn't redress the balance. Cesc Fabregas' early-season absence highlighted his importance to how the team plays, and with the young Spaniard pulling the strings, the Gunners are rightly big favourites to win this group. But against teams who have stronger all-round midfields, they may struggle to get Fabregas on the ball often enough. Up front, Adebayor is unplayable on his day, but he does put in his share of lacklustre performances, and after Van Persie, the options up front are hardly prolific. The semifinals will be a stretch for Arsenal this season, because as entertaining as they are to watch, they lack enough steel to come through those big nervous nights.
Group H
Zen Masters
This is where the real dark horse could come from. Although their UEFA Cup and Super Cup successes have marked them out as a side to keep an eye on, Zenit St Petersburg have the potential to make it to the last four in this season's Champions League. The fast passing style of play coached by Dick Advocaat is well-suited to European competition, and having kept ahold of his star turn Andrei Arshavin, the Dutchman will have his eyes on causing an upset. Their group isn't as impossible as it first looks, with Schuster still failing to really inspire at the Bernabeu, and Ranieri still a long way from building Juventus back up to being a serious Champions League threat. His squad contains too many Premier League cast-offs and ageing stars, and they may have to join AC Milan in the UEFA Cup. Real Madrid, on the other hand, are crying out for a new star to inspire their team, and having failed to bring in any prospects over the summer, they could prove too predictable to be serious contenders. BATE will enjoy their first Champions League experience, and a few points and maybe a home win are as high as their hopes should be. Zenit, though, are a different story, and with enough ambition, they may surprise us all.
Antepost
By Roy Brindley
Where Have All Sirs and Gentlemen Gone?
In the good old days, bookmakers were known as "turf accountants," credit accounts were advertised everywhere, and the word "gentleman" was touted around by most firms, few of which were public companies.
Visiting a turf accountant or making one of those credit bets by telephone meant your name was Sir.
These days, things are different. Ladbrokes and William Hill are in a constant battle to claim they operate the most betting shops (Ladbrokes comes out on top most of the time). Coral, with 1,500 outlets, is privately owned, but due to its size, there is no personal touch; ditto Betfred with an estate of 750 shops. Irish giant Paddy Power has both floated on the stock market and moved into Britain; it looks hell-bent on joining the big boys' party.
Therein, at your local bookies, you are now unlikely to be called Sir. Your betting slip is invariably slapped on the counter by a staff member who resides behind a bulletproof glass screen, accessible only by a door requiring a security code. He has no interest in the job at hand.
Credit accounts are also a thing of the past. These days, telephone betting is dependant on you possessing a debit or credit card. You are no longer called Sir, either; you are account number ZXTY2997854432L, with a security question normally related to your pet dog, favourite football team, or mother's name before she married and divorced your dad. In between those two points, hopefully you were born, as that date also will be required.
Dropping the term turf accountant, I can understand. After all, bookmakers now offer so many products - like fruit machines, video terminals, and cartoon horse racing - that they will soon be calling themselves leisure arcades. But the dehumanisation of the whole process of placing a wager is irksome to an old-timer like me, who can still recall when televisions were not allowed in turf accountants' premises.
Yes, I welcomed the introduction of carpeted floors and drink dispensers, but service is what it is all about. So, I often find myself punting with smaller firms that are not averse to comping you a day at the races and send you a hamper at Christmas. Alas, all that may soon be changing.
When I identified Richard Hughes as ridiculously overpriced at 66/1 to be the champion jockey for the current flat season, with one of the smaller firms that I like to use (they have only three shops here in Dublin), I contacted one of the directors of the company, who agreed to accommodate my wager to the tune of a €100,000 take-out.
Off I trundled to my nearest branch, quite delighted with myself, happily jotting down details of my bet on a slip. Yet, handing it over to the manager, I was met with ridicule. "Do you want me to throw in Richard Hills and Richard Dunwoody as part of the same bet for the same price? I may as well," he announced with a smirk on his face. His tone, not to mention his comment, was derogatory.
As a result, I've used the company on only a few occasions since for convenience, and as a direct result of them offering the best price or concession for my selections.
Next, my good old-fashioned credit account with a private "gentleman's bookmaker" got some use. With this outfit, I'm doing some dough, but that's just the way the cookie crumbles. At least they call me Sir! Recently, thanks to a tip on a horse having its first outing in a handicap, I managed to claw back a small chunk of change with them and was eagerly awaiting a rare cheque in the post as opposed to the usual invoice.
But that too was ruined with a message left on my answer-phone that went something like this: "Good morning, Roy, it's Saturday morning and we are open for business nice and early, starting with the BAGS from Crayford and Romford. Of course, the best of today's racing action comes from Newmarket and Goodwood, and we are offering a host of special offers on all the televised races. The football is back on and we can match any price available elsewhere for you. So why don't you give us a call, as you are in front on the week and this is your chance to spin it up!"
Now, I've gambled all my life and I know I'm a long way behind. You could say I've been to the circus and seen the strings. So the days of me being sucked in by this kind of propaganda are long gone. Unsurprisingly, I actually found it discourteous and insulting, so I'll not be propping up their profits any further as a result.
Truth be known, there has never been a better time to be a gambler. Percentages and margins are lower than ever, and the Internet has made placing bets far easier. It's also no longer all about finding a winner - as betting exchanges allow you to seek losers, while spread-betting companies give you ample arbitrage opportunities.
There are more professional gamblers now than there has ever been, and each has the one quality in gambling that I don't … discipline. Similarly, they don't get the all-addictive buzz that leisurely punters do from placing bets. It's all a business to them, and they don't need courting with niceties like some of us do. I suppose, on the plus side, that few of them can play poker!
Best Bets From Blue Square
Last year's jumps season was dominated by Paul Nicholls, and looking through his stable for the upcoming campaign, there's no reason for thinking it will be any different this time around.
Nicholls is 1/8 to be the champion trainer once again, which gives you some idea of his dominance in this sphere.
Of the four main championship races at Cheltenham, it's only really the hurdle races in which Nicholls doesn't have any obvious candidate - although this could completely change come March.
The Champion Hurdle looks open at the moment, with Katchit the 6/1 joint favourite to successfully defend his crown. Binoculor is the other joint favourite, and looks the most promising of last year's novices. The mover over the summer has been Crack Away Jack, who has been backed in to 12/1 from 25s to make the step up from handicap company, having taken the Fred Winter Hurdle at the Festival last season.
The World Hurdle has been dominated in recent years by Howard Johnson's Inglis Drever, who made it a hat trick of wins in the race earlier on in the year. He is the 3/1 favourite to make it four this season, and whilst he clearly loves the Prestbury Park track, there will surely come a time when his age catches up with him. Kasbah Bliss could be the heir apparent, and is next in the market at 5/1, whilst Alan King's Blazing Bailey will have his supporters should he turn up again in March.
The Champion Chase was turned into a procession last season by Master Minded, who produced one of the classiest performances ever seen at Cheltenham to take the two-mile crown. Understandably, he is a short-priced favourite at 5/4 to win the race again, but could face stiff opposition from last season's Arkle winner Tidal Bay, who is a 5/1 chance. There is a suspicion that Howard Johnson's gelding may well be stepped up in the trip later on this season, something that could also be said about 2007 winner Voy Por Ustedes, who has the King George on his agenda. If this is the case, then Master Minded could well be odds-on for this race before Christmas.
It would be a huge shock if Paul Nicholls wasn't to win this season's Gold Cup, and it's likely that the race will revolve around Denman and Kauto Star once more.
Denman is the even-money favourite for the race, with Kauto just behind at 4/1 and stablemate Neptune Collonges next at 10s. Such is the strength in depth of the Nicholls stable that he is just 4/1 to train the first three home in the race. Unless something comes out of the woodwork over the next few months, this wouldn't come as a massive surprise at all.
All prices quoted correct at time of writing.