Picking Up Small Pots

This is the last column in this series. I'd like to thank Brendan Murray for giving me the opportunity to do this column in Card Player, and Nicky O'Donnell for putting me in touch with Brendan. Most of these columns are based on notes that I made for my students, and it's a great feeling to bring them to a much wider audience. I think poker is a fantastic game, and that the more good-quality (hopefully!) advice there is available, the more popular the game will become.

In this column, we will be looking at something a lot of players, good and bad, ignore - small pots. Most players pay a lot of attention to large pots. These days, when everyone is multitabling and a lot of people are multitasking, it's easy for them to have very little attention left to deal with pots that seem insignificant. If a pot hasn't been raised preflop, a lot of players will just hit check/fold unless they catch a piece of it, not bothering to think about what their opponent has, or attempting to steal it themselves. A good player's win rate will be around 12 big blinds per 100 hands. So, you can see how picking up a few more small pots every 100 hands would have a big impact on your win rate. As with all forms of poker, it's about playing the percentages. You can never know with certainty that you will be able to pick up a pot with a bet; it's about correctly gauging when it is likely that you can. Also, as I mentioned before in the column about bluffing, failing to know when to stop bluffing at a pot can turn your original +EV (expected value) steal attempt into a -EV situation. I will discuss what to do when called later in the column.

There are quite a few situations in which it is easy to pick the pot up, too many to mention here. What you need to do is think about each hand as it plays out, and ask yourself, is a bet likely to win the pot now? It's good practice to think through each hand and see when it's likely that no one else has a hand. Here are two examples that should show you what I mean:

Firstly, the under-the-gun player (UTG) raises, the button calls, and you call from the small blind with 3-3. The flop comes A-10-7. The UTG and the button both check. Now, if the turn is an innocuous card (that is, not an ace, king, or queen), you should bet out. That's because you are the only person who (based on the flop play) can have an ace. It looks like you called preflop with an ace, checked to the pre-flop raiser, and are now betting out to protect your hand. If the preflop raiser had an ace, he would nearly always bet the flop. Similarly, if the button had an ace, he would probably bet the flop. (Tricky players will often check with an ace, but most players aren't that tricky.) But there are even better times than this, when it's clear that no one has any hand at all. Let's say the button, who is quite passive, but not overly so, limps in. The small blind checks and the flop comes up A-7-6. Assuming that the small blind checks, a bet here is going to be profitable. It is unlikely that the button has limped in with an ace, and it's very unlikely that the small blind's random hand can beat an ace.

So, in both of these examples, I have analysed my opponents' actions and guessed that it is unlikely they have a hand good enough to call a bet with. By analysing their actions, you can put your opponents on a range, and see how that range interacts with the texture of the flop. For example, an A-2-2 board is unlikely to hit a limper, but likely to hit a raiser. Are there other important factors? Well, as in almost any situation, your image is vitally important. The tighter and more passive your image, the better this will work. You also want to be sure that your opponents aren't the type to call you down very light. Some people hate to fold any pair or draw, so it's obviously a bad idea to try to make them fold. There is also another factor that is important - your equity.

The more equity you have, the more aggressive you should be, as the penalty for getting called is much less (because you can win money later in the hand if your hand improves, or happens to win at a showdown). So, if you take the second example, I would automatically bet out with any good draw. (By good draw, I mean a draw with around eight outs, like an open-end straight draw or a pair and a gutshot.) I would also nearly always bet out with any mediocre draw (like a gutshot) unless I had a good reason not to, and I would also bet out when I had a pair. A pair makes a good semibluffing opportunity, as you may have the best hand; this is fine, since you are happy to take the pot down now, or you may be called by top pair, which gives you a chance to improve to trips or two pair. Note that with top pair, or a less vulnerable high second pair, you may want to bet for value (which in reality works out the same), or check-call to induce bluffs.

When your flop steal gets called, you need to re-evaluate on the turn. Usually, if you have bet on the flop with nothing, you should check-fold on the turn unless there is a specific reason not to (for example, if the perfect bluffing card appeared on the turn, or if you had a good read that your opponent was very weak). That's because once your flop bet gets called, the range of hands that your opponent has is much stronger than before. It's much less likely that a bluff will now be profitable, given that your opponent has told you that he not only likes his cards, but is interested in the flop. If you bet out with a little piece of the board, you need to re-evaluate on the turn as to whether you want to continue or not. It depends on how strong you think your opponent is likely to be, and whether or not you think you can get him to fold. If it's obvious that he has a strong hand, you are usually better off just check-folding. Remember, though, that it isn't a disaster if he calls your turn bet, as you can often improve to a better hand than your opponent's on the river.

Daragh Thomas has made a living from poker over the last three years. He also coaches other players and writes extensively on the boards.ie poker forum, under the name hectorjelly.