Final-Table Takedown -- Phil Galfond

Phil Galfond, 23, began his poker career online by playing micro sit-and-gos, and worked his way up to the highest levels. He then switched his focus to cash games, and is now well-regarded as one of the best high-stakes players in the game. In addition, Galfond is an accomplished writer and deciphers poker strategy and theory in a refreshingly grounded, clear, and articulate voice. He is the lead pro at bluefirepoker.com, where he teaches no-limit hold'em and pot-limit Omaha, and is in charge of all video content.

Galfond raises from under the gun to 30,000 with the K K Q 7. Negreanu calls from the cutoff.

Flop: K J 8 (pot: 75,000)

Phil Galfond: Good flop, obviously, but not as dry as I'd like.
Craig Tapscott: I read that you had a game plan for this event.

PG: In World Series of Poker pot-limit Omaha events, I felt that I had an enormous edge on the field. Because of that, I was trying as hard as I could not to get my money in unless it was really good. I felt that my tournament life had a lot of value, so I was trying to keep variance at an absolute minimum. Now, I'm obviously getting all of my money in with top set here, but I wouldn't be happy to get it in against a wrap.

Galfond bets 50,000. Negreanu calls.

Turn: 3 (pot: 175,000)

PG: Great card. Most people would bet here, and in a cash game, I would bet the majority of the time. But this time, I decided to …

Galfond checks.

CT: Why the check?

PG: Immediately, people might think, "Oh, going for the tricky check-raise," but that is not really the intention of this check. Do I want Daniel to bet so that I can shove? Of course. Do I expect him to bet very often? No, almost never. I have two kings in my hand and there's one on the board, so it's unlikely that Daniel can have as good a hand as even top and middle pair, based just on card removal. In addition, I'd expect him to raise the flop with most top-two-pair hands, and most sets. I expect him to have a draw, or a pair plus a draw, most of the time, and check behind. So, why give him the free card?

Well, this goes back to what I said earlier about lowering my variance in this specific tournament. I don't want to get into a spot where I have a decent chance of losing most or all of my chips. The alternative to checking is betting. If I bet maybe 140,000, Daniel will call with a lot of hands, since most of his hands are draws. Now, we'll have about 455,000 in the pot and 430,000 behind. If the river brings the A - what do I do? Check and fold, I guess. If the river brings the Q? Check and not know what to do. The 9, 7, 10, 5, and so on, and so on? Pretty much half the deck hits a draw that Daniel very likely could have, and he has position on me, and he's a great player, and he has the stack to put me to the test on the final-table bubble. By betting the turn, I put myself in a position to lose a lot or all of my chips. By checking, I play it safe with my stack, have the chance to check-raise, and have a very disguised hand on the river.

Galfond checks. Negreanu bets 150,000. Galfond shoves all in. Negreanu calls, revealing the J 10 9 8.

PG: It's a total cooler for Daniel. Not only are his two pair irrelevant because I have top set, I have a queen and a 7 in my hand, which knocks his eight outs down to six.

River: 5 (pot: 1,315,000)

Galfond wins the pot of 1,315,000.



Galfond raises to 200,000 from the button with the A 10 9 8. Hourani calls.

Flop: 10 6 4 (pot: 400,000)

Hourani checks. Galfond checks.

PG: This is a good flop for me. I think betting here is fine, since I am in OK shape against most hands that Adam might shove. However, going along with my theme for the tourney, I wanted to see more turns and rivers rather than just get money in on flops.

Turn: Q (pot: 400,000)

Hourani bets 250,000.

CT: What's your read?

PG: It really depends on what kind of hands Adam is betting, of which I had an idea but definitely wasn't sure. Gross, gross card. With 400,000 in the pot, position, one pair and a double gutter, I decided to peel. I think this is certainly marginal.

Galfond calls.

River: Q (pot: 900,000)

Hourani bets 475,000.

PG: I have only A-10 here, which is pretty low in relative hand strength. I actually lose to some bluffs in this spot. If Adam has a hand like A-J-J-5 with the A, he might turn that into a bluff, in which case I'd feel pretty stupid calling.

So, when deciding whether or not to make a river call, you ask yourself: What hands is he betting for value, what hands is he bluffing with, and how often is he doing each? Of course, this is all educated guesswork.

Bluffs: A bunch of straight draws have missed. I think Adam would bet the turn very often with a hand like A-9-8-7, K-J-9-9, or 7-6-5-3. He also would play the lone A and three other cards this way. I also felt that he would bet some very weak hands, like A-K-9-9, for instance, but not all that often. The main question was how often he would follow through on the river with hands like these. I felt that it was pretty unlikely, but still possible.

Value: I felt that since the board had paired, Adam wouldn't try to squeeze value out of a medium or low flush. So, I felt the worst hand he'd value-bet was something like a king-high flush. I had to ask myself how often he could have a king- or ace-high flush, or a boat. This was the key part of the hand.

I'd been stabbing at almost every single three-flush board when Adam gave me the chance to do so, and I know he realized it. I felt like Adam would check most of his sets and two-pair hands on the turn to check-call. First of all, I'd bet much worse hands, and second, I'm capable of bluff-raising this turn, which would be a terrible spot for him to put himself in with two pair, and even with a set. I also felt he'd bet bigger on the river with most boats. Based on all that, I felt that the chances he had a full house were pretty slim.

That left nut and second-nut flushes. I think these hands are definitely possible. I thought he might go for a check-raise on the turn with those hands some percentage of the time, but I know that he would bet twice with some of them, too.

My job now is to weigh the chances that he has the nut or second-nut flush, or the rare boat, against the chances of him having one of the bluffs. With 900,000 in the pot and Adam betting 475,000, I have to be right only a little over 25 percent of the time to break even on a call. I decided that it was likely enough that he had a bluff this time.

Galfond calls. Hourani mucks. Galfond wins the pot of 1,850,000.