Bluffing in Limit Hold'em: Mission Impossible?

Last issue, we looked at bluffing from early position into unraised pots. You can find that column and the others in this series at www.CardPlayer.com. In this column, we will finish looking at bluffing on the flop by discussing bluffing from other positions in unraised pots, and will look at bluffing in raised pots.

Bluffing from other positions in unraised pots: Of course, anyone can be the first to bet when the flop is one that is good for bluffing, as discussed in the last column:

1. King-high flops with no or few draws
2. Paired flops
3. Three small cards that are not all wheel cards

Remember, however, that one of the reasons these flops work well for bluffs from early position is that the big blind was forced to play (and the small blind will often decide to complete if the pot is unraised) and could therefore reasonably hold some of whatever is out there. From later position, you will have less credibility in certain situations unless you are known for limping with a huge variety of hands.

For example, if you open-limped from middle position and the flop came 5-5-2, for a bluff to succeed, your opponents must believe that you have a fair chance of holding a 5. If you generally won't limp from middle position with less than 10-9 suited, as many do, you will have a tough sell. You could say the same sort of thing for a 7-4-2 flop. Could you really have much of that?

On the other hand, some flops that are too dangerous to bluff at from early position may work well for you. Let's say you did open-limp with 10-9 suited from middle position (I would never recommend that you do this, but plenty of people do it). Now, the button and both blinds join you to see the flop of Q-6-3 rainbow. The blinds check. This would be a terrific chance to bluff. Oftentimes the blinds have little or nothing, and if you can get past the button, you can pick up the pot. You also would have limped with Q-J or Q-10, so you can plausibly represent a queen, and the blinds might have bet if they held one. Sure, you will get called sometimes, but you need to be successful only 25 percent of the time to break even.

The theory that the more people who have checked, the more likely your bluff is to succeed brings us to the button, the last person to act on the flop. Countering that is the problem of credibility. After everyone checks to you on the button in an unraised pot, they all expect you to bluff. Sometimes they are even lying in wait for exactly that.

First, that means you should bet anytime you really have something, in most games. Players with any hope at all are conditioned to (at least) call when you bet from the button, given that they think you are probably bluffing.

It also means that you need specific types of opponents to successfully bluff. Somewhat remarkably, you need mediocre ones. Poor players are likely to call you because they do not know better. They just like to call. Good players are likely to challenge you by raising, or by calling and playing aggressively later in an attempt to take the pot away from you.

The types of flops you can bluff at from last position, even with the right opponents, are still restricted to those without many draws. Bluffing at a J-10-8 two-suited flop is almost futile unless you are alone with the blinds. If you are alone with them (and you never should have gotten to this situation) and they check, bet every time. You are getting 3-1, and you will escape with the pot at least that often.

Bluffing in raised pots: After the pot has been raised preflop, things change. Bluffing becomes more difficult, as at least one player has announced that he has a good hand. This does not mean that he has one, of course, but he has represented one. Bigger pots mean a much bigger reward if your bluff is successful, but the chances that you will get everyone to fold go down, of course.

The flops that were so good to bluff at in unraised pots are now quite poor. Let's say a middle-position player raises, and the button, small blind, and big blind call. The flop is 7-4-2. In an unraised pot, opponents were getting 5-1 when you bet, but now you are offering them 9-1. Many will automatically call with overcards, and your bluff will not succeed.

King-high flops also will not present excellent bluffing opportunities, because of the increased chance that the raiser or someone else has a king.

So, can you bluff? Yes, in some cases. There are different opportunities when you are the raiser and when you are not. We will examine each.

You are not the raiser: Your toughest task is getting the raiser to fold. If he flops top pair or better, or a good draw, he won't, but what if he does not care for the flop? Let's say he raised with J-J or 10-10 and the flop is A-5-3. If you can bet (or check-raise) this flop with credibility, meaning that he believes you have an ace, he may well fold now rather than continue calling with only a 23-1 chance to improve on the next street. Yes, that's right. An ace-high flop is now your friend. King-high flops offer some similar opportunities, but with an ace-high flop, he cannot have an overcard to keep him in.

Avoid flops with obvious draws. If the flop is A-10-9, your opponent will suspect that you are semibluffing with a draw such as J-8 suited or Q-J, and will soldier on with J-J. He also sees some backdoor chances for himself if he is trailing.

You are the raiser: For the most part, raisers bet. With a good hand, this is a fine idea, checking only the most dangerous flops, like 10-9-8 of one suit when you have A-K suited in another. But what if you now have nothing?

In small fields, your bluff has a good chance, but in large ones, generally assume that you will not get everyone to fold, and representing pocket aces when you do not have them is futile. If you raise after four limpers with 8-7 suited, and everyone, including the blinds, calls, bluffing into K-Q-2 is just a wasted bet. Save it. If there's just one limper, you, and the blinds, bet and hope for the best. The 8-1 price should be good enough to show a profit.

Next issue, we will look at bluffing on the turn.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold'em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].