Sports Desk

by Aodhan Elder

A Song for Europe

Given the millions of lives lost and massive destruction Europe suffered as a result of being the main battleground of World War II, having a song and a dance scarcely seems an adequate means of rehabilitating the rifts. The ostentatious kitsch we now associate with the Eurovision Song Contest almost seems outrageously inappropriate, but rather unbelievably, the show was, in part, envisaged as a means of repairing the fragmented relationships between the nations and citizens of Europe. Ironically, the events of recent years have created new, almost comic, divisions, but regardless of the socio-cultural implications of the event, it will be one of the biggest non-sport betting heats of the year.

The theory that the people of eastern Europe group together to vent their frustrations at the major powers of the continent via the medium of the Contest is one that has gained support in recent years — so much so that it hastened host Terry Wogan’s decision to hang up his microphone — but while the statistics point to a certain trend, it’s not one that necessarily indicates a preconceived plan or protest.

Over the course of the last decade, no winner has come from west of the Rhine. The eastern nations of Europe appear to dominate, but considering that these countries range from Scandinavia in the north to the Balkans in the south, and quasi-Asian Turkey in the east, there seems to be little coordination of protests. The last time a winner came from west of the Rhine was in 1997 when the United Kingdom claimed its most recent win, and since then the poor performance of the region has been explained away with mildly xenophobic whispers of conspiracy.

While there is undoubtedly a degree of countries voting for their diplomatic friends, it may be overstated. Israel has never enjoyed massive support from the people or governments of Europe, yet has three wins to its name. Likewise Russia has riled the major powers of the continent and the nations that formerly fell within the boundaries of the U.S.S.R. with some provocative military and political actions, yet still won last year’s competition. An improvement in the telecommunications of the Eastern bloc and the novelty of taking part in the event may be a sounder explanation for recent outcomes, so watching the market is vital.

Another theory often propagated is that entries for the competition need to have a visual spectacle to accompany the acoustic performance. There seems to be a certain truth to this, but the subjective nature of this makes it hard to quantify. In keeping with the east of the Rhine trend, Norway is heavy favourite for this year’s event, but Ukraine could be a good outside bet. It won in 2004 and nailed the runner-up spots in both 2007 and 2008, suggesting it may have stumbled upon a formula that has won favour with the European audience. Ukraine can be backed at 70/1. Understanding the complex relationships between the countries of eastern Europe may also help, but if the money comes for one country, it’s worth taking note.

Anyone for Tennis?

Roger Federer’s recent announcement that he is scaling back his participation in smaller events in favour of the major tournaments is as tacit an admission of his waning powers as the Swiss player is ever likely to give.

The physical demands of modern tennis mean that Federer is on a downward trajectory in his career and he needs to portion out his efforts in measured doses. This year’s French Open will probably be given a large dose. The French is the one Slam Federer needs to complete a career Grand Slam, and if that wasn’t enough to inspire, the prospect of doing to Nadal at Roland Garros what Nadal did to Federer at Wimbledon will provide the extra motivation.

Backing against a player already considered by many as the greatest clay court player of all time who has never tasted defeat in four years of coming to Paris, seems like folly. But with the echoes of a ticking clock ringing in Federer’s ears, this year could see the superhuman effort needed to claim the crown. The “Fed Express” will work immensely hard on his clay court game and just maybe he can rewrite the lines of a well rehearsed script.