A Little Bit Here, a Little Bit There

Math whizzes compute pot odds and can tell you the exact price that the pot is laying you. They know the chances of the card they need coming, and can compare that to the amount of money in the pot to calculate if a call is mathematically correct. Being able to figure out pricing is an important component of becoming a quality player, and most players who have made the effort to study the game can compute the current odds. But many players figure out only the odds that the pot is currently offering them, and do not blend potential positive and negative future scenarios into the equation. Being able to accurately estimate how the hand will play in differing scenarios, and computing a price based on a reasonably accurate estimate, is an attribute of great players. This involves being effective at reading your opponents’ hands, and your opponents’ thoughts.

The essence of the game is making decisions that add positive expectation to your long-term results, and avoiding those that have negative expectation. While this is essentially a statistical concept, it is more so a practical one — and a logical and philosophical one. To succeed, one needs to understand that while a given play may appear to be negative on the surface — purely mathematically — it can have positive potential. And to get the maximum edge that you can out of the game, all of those positives count.

At Bellagio in Las Vegas, I called a single bet on the button behind two limpers in a $30-$60 limit hold’em game with the Q J. The small blind tossed in a chip to call, and the big blind knuckled. The flop fell A 10 4, and the small blind led into the field, folding everyone up to me. What should I do? Take one off, raise as a free-card play, or fold? The pot was currently laying me 6-1, which was not a good enough price to draw to the gutshot.

I thought about my opponent’s tendencies and range of hands. He was a cautious player, and bet only made hands, not flush draws. Mr. Cautious did occasionally bluff, but I had never seen him bluff into five opponents. I was pretty sure that he held an ace or better. I also felt that the K was a very unlikely holding in his range, as he wouldn’t bet K-10. With A-K, he probably would have raised preflop. I thought about his style of play, and whether it would provide advantages or disadvantages in this scenario. He didn’t bet when the board brought a three-flush unless he held the flush, so if a heart came, he would give me a free card. Also, Mr. Cautious paid off liberally; he was the type of player who never wanted to be stolen from, so if I made a hand, it would likely get paid off. I tossed in the $30.

The turn card was the 6. I had picked up a flush draw. As I expected, Mr. Cautious checked, and I knuckled right behind him. Judging from his previous play, I felt that he was virtually certain to call a bet; therefore, the expected value of the times that he would fold the best hand was lost, and I was still an underdog to win the pot when called, making a semibluff a negative-expectation wager. The river brought the 10. Once again, Mr. Cautious checked, and feeling confident that he would call me, I checked behind him. He showed the A 5, having flopped top pair. I tossed my hand into the muck.

The fact that I felt reasonably certain when I called on the flop that if a heart hit on the turn, I was likely to get a free river card, adjusted my price. Getting two shots at making my hand, plus the extra value of being paid off one to three big bets if I hit, turned a hand that I should fold, according to the current odds, into a positive-expectation call when including all of the plausible scenarios.

While this was not the most exciting hand or the biggest pot I have ever played, situations like this occur frequently in limit hold’em. The hand does speak to reading your opponents, thinking through how their tendencies will affect the way the hand plays, and then benefiting from those reads and their style of play. On the flop, calling with my hand was marginal, at best. If I was unsure that I could get paid off or thought there was little chance of getting a free turn card, I could not have made a correct flop call. The fact that I missed is irrelevant. The secret to winning over time in poker is to get as much volume as possible while having positive expectation. As I have often stated, the recurring sum of volume times net edge will equal expectation, which over time will equal earn [earnings]. If you can accurately assess tendencies in your opponents that will provide you positive-expectation plays that will increase your volume bet, you will possess an edge over those opponents.

The vast majority of the decisions that you make in the course of play are in small positive-edge and small negative-edge situations. Each individual wager is, in the course of a year’s play or a lifetime’s play, miniscule. Those who focus are able to add up those little positive bits while not subtracting the little negative bits, and make a living out of them over time.

Longtime poker pro and author Roy Cooke’s Card Player column has appeared since 1992. A successful Las Vegas real estate broker since 1990, his website is www.roycooke.com. Should you wish to inquire regarding real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his phone number is (702) 396-6575. Roy’s longtime collaborator John Bond’s website is www.johnbondwriting.com. Find John and Roy on Facebook.