An Interesting Hand

I recently received an interesting hand from the 2009 World Series of Poker main event. It was e-mailed to me by a friend of mine who is a very experienced no-limit hold’em tournament player. I think it is a fine situation to discuss in conjunction with my columns on overbetting the pot to get all in. Here’s what he wrote:

“The structure was 800-1,600 blinds with a 200 ante. From early position, a good player raised to 4,200. He had a huge stack of over 200,000. I had about 23,000 and two black jacks. There were about four players behind me, so I just called. The flop came Q 9 6, giving me second pair and a jack-high flush draw. My opponent checked. He had check-raised several times earlier in the session, and I would be cooked against the A Q, for example, so I checked. The turn was a red ace, and we both checked. The last card was a 6, and we both checked again. He showed the A 2, beating me with a pair of aces. Certainly, I could have won if I had shoved all in on the flop. If I had bet, he might have check-raised me all in, but that was improbable. What is your opinion on this hand?”

Here was my reply:

I am very glad that you asked about this hand. I looked at the stack ratios. You just called and invested almost 20 percent of your stack with jacks to see the flop. I would have moved in. When you have a stack as short as yours was (you had 15 times the big blind, playing with an ante, giving you enough chips for six rounds), you have to gamble when you have a hand as good as jacks, or you will probably be ground down. I like the fact that the early-position raiser had a huge stack, as these players often try to muscle the pots. Moving in puts the raiser to a decision right away. You do not want to play a volume pot with jacks. There are only four hands that someone behind you can play if you move in: aces, kings, queens, or A-K. Someone with A-Q would not play. If you catch the raiser with an underpair like tens, nines, or eights, he will call with a big stack, and you have him dominated. And he might fold the hand that he actually held. (If you could see his hand, you would not think there was a big swing in your equity, whatever he did.) If he sees the flop without being reraised, you need to flop an overpair to feel halfway comfortable, and you are only about even money to do that with jacks. I am not going to call almost 20 percent of my stack with a pocket pair, trying to hit a decent flop. That 20 percent of my stack is a bit too much to call. I will fold a small pair, move in with jacks or better, and guess what to do with tens, nines, or eights.

On the flop, you had a complex situation, so let me ask you a question. If you had been the preflop raiser and had to act first, and this flop had come down in this same situation, what would you have done? There is an overcard, you have a club, there is 12,400 in the pot, and you have about 19,000 left. Which of the following actions would you have taken? What would you have done?

A: Check. (If so, what is your game plan if he checks it back? What is your game plan if he bets 5,000 to 8,000?)
B: Bet 5,000 to 8,000 (or tell me an amount that you prefer), and fold if you get raised.
C: Bet 5,000 to 8,000, and call if you get raised.
D: Bet 5,000 to 8,000, and decide whether to call or not if you get raised.
E: Bet 5,000 to 8,000. (What is your game plan if you get called?)
F: Move all in.

My friend replied that he probably would have moved all in. I completely agree. You have a pair and a draw, but are completely guessing whether or not you want another club to come. With both a decent hand and a decent draw, but not drawing to the nuts and having a short stack, bet all of your chips and pray, even if you do not know what card to pray for. There are several hands that have you in dreadful shape: any flush to the ace or king, or a pair bigger than yours with a bigger club. There are also hands with which he can call that have you in the driver’s seat, such as a lower pair with a club lower than the jack. And there’s a huge number of hands that he should or would fold. You do not know what you want to come and have almost no maneuvering room, so scoot the loot.

My friend was afraid of being nutted on this hand. This was a possibility, but not the most likely possibility. There are many more bad hands than good hands. Unless you know a player’s proclivities very well, you can interpret a check as much more likely to be based on weakness than strength. Not only is it more likely that someone misses a flop than hits it, but there is also the distinct possibility that a player who hits it will prefer to bet rather than check.

I will agree that the previous paragraph does not necessarily apply to a preflop raiser who gets a raggedy flop. If the pot is raised preflop, you call, and the flop comes down a raggedy nothing like 9-6-3 rainbow, you have to wonder why the preflop raiser did not make a continuation-bet. What was there to be afraid of? On the other hand, if the flop comes down with something scary, such as three cards of the same suit or three parts of a medium-size straight, such as J-10-8, the opponent who checks is a lot more likely to be terrified than trapping.

I think there are three lessons to be learned from this instructive hand:

1: When holding a pocket pair, you have a hand that is hard to improve. Even a favorable-looking flop like an overpair is scarcely a guarantee of safety. Consequently, beware of calling too much money in trying to flop a set or an overpair when holding hands like jacks, tens, or nines. I think that when the pot size has reached 20 percent of your stack, you should either raise or fold with a pocket pair.
2: When a threatening flop comes down and your opponent checks, he is more likely to be weak than strong.
3: When you flop a made hand and a draw, have a short stack, and do not know if you want to hit or miss your draw, you can hold your mistakes down to either zero or one by betting all of your chips.

Bob Ciaffone has authored four poker books, Middle Limit Holdem Poker, Pot-limit and No-limit Poker, Improve Your Poker, and Omaha Poker. All can be ordered from Card Player. Ciaffone is available for poker lessons: e-mail [email protected]. His website is www.pokercoach.us, where you can get his rulebook, Robert’s Rules of Poker, for free. Bob also has a website called www.fairlawsonpoker.org.