Sports Desk

You needn’t rush to get the factor 30 for the moment, and the frantic scramble for the passport can wait. World Cup 2010 is a few months away yet but October is a crucial month in clearing up who’ll be booking flights to South Africa. The qualifying phase of both the European and South American sections will have come to an end and this will dictate the betting.

The main purpose of looking ahead at such an early stage is to highlight the lack of correlation between good qualifying performances and the overall winner. This is somewhat unexpected because an impressive qualifying campaign requires teams to perform consistently well over a two-year period prior to the finals. It seems like maintaining this good form into the summer of a World Cup is too big a task. Looking through the history of qualifying, it’s rare to see teams that have been thoroughly dominant in terms of qualifying performance go on to claim the big prize. This is somewhat skewed by the fact hosts who go on to win the tournament don’t need to qualify, but there is a trend that suggests the most eye-catching teams in qualifiers rarely back it up in the main event. The notable exception comes in the form of the fabled Brazilian team that went on to claim World Cup 1970, who looked almost as sublime in qualifying as they proved to be in Mexico.

A prime example of this qualifying/tournament performance anomaly came in 2002. Argentina finished 13 points clear of Brazil in the South American section, yet when it came to the event in Japan and South Korea, it was Argentina who crashed out at the group stage while the Brazilians claimed their fifth World Cup. An exceptional path to the finals by no means translates into an exceptional tournament and this example highlights the danger of getting carried away with qualification displays.

That would appear to be bad news for England, the Netherlands, and Spain who qualified with ease from their respective groups. The Netherlands in particular were flattered by a weak group, while England were pragmatic rather than spectacular in a straightforward group. Their recent results look impressive in the form book, but despite the obvious link, World Cup qualifying and the World Cup are separate entities. This sounds almost foolish as qualifying is a prerequisite for a finals appearance, but once the 32 teams are decided, we can discount the methods by which they secured their berths.

One of the first things to do when looking at the tournament is to draw a line through Argentina. Although they boast a breathtaking array of attacking talent, there has been little from Diego Maradona’s reign as manager to suggest he can provide the defensive solidity that will be needed in a competition of such quality. Beyond that, there is a degree of politicking within Argentine football that the punter should be aware of.

For years Maradona has been an outspoken critic of the national side, all the while angling for the job himself. Although El Diego is adored by the public, the powers that run the game in country are far less enamoured with him. Privately, they might even admit that they hope he fails and leaves them alone once and for all, free to concentrate on 2014 when Messi, Aguero, and several of the rising defensive stars have the experience to be real contenders. Plus, that tournament is to be held in Brazil and there would be few sweeter feelings for the Albicelestes than claiming the trophy on the soil of their despised neighbours.

Dunga has been on the receiving end of his fair share of criticism, often for his choice of shirt, but when it matters, Brazil have performed and, most importantly showed defensive steel not usually associated with the Seleção. For once, they are a backable price and are hard to ignore.

To go along with the cliché, the Germans can’t be dismissed. Their squad and performances at Euro 2008 impressed no-one, yet they made the final and were within one goal of a Spanish team hailed as one of the best in recent tournaments. They are available at 12/1 and that price will surely contract closer to the event with people looking for a bet guaranteed to give them a run for their money.