Is U.S. Live Poker in Terminal Decline?

The $10,000 no-limit hold’em World Poker Tour championship event at the 2009 Legends of Poker drew 279 players. This was a sharp decline from the field that entered last year, when 373 players made the trip to the Bicycle Casino. The field shrank by 25.2 percent and this current edition was the second lowest turnout in the history of the event. The only field that was smaller at the Legends of Poker was during season one, when 134 players took part in the first WPT tournament ever.

This one example of a shrinking tournament field in the U.S. is indicative of what is happening all across the country for $10,000 plus buy-in events. The Bellagio Cup V $15,000 no-limit hold’em championship dropped from 446 players all the way down to 268 (a 39.9 percent drop) in 2009, while the $25,000 WPT Championship fell from 545 players down to 338 in 2009 (a 37.9 percent drop). These are three current examples outside of the World Series of Poker.

The reasons for these falling numbers are numerous, whether due to the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA) legislation, the overall state of the economy, or competition from international tournaments, the downward trend in big buy-in U.S. tournament field sizes is indisputable. Have the expectations of professional poker players changed due to the recent trend? Card Player caught up with some of the poker professionals who did make it down to Southern California for the Legends of Poker, and what follows are the concerns and possible solutions addressed by their reactions.

Shrinking Factors
On day one of the 2009 WPT Legends of Poker, two other major tournaments were taking place internationally. The PokerStars European Poker Tour Kiev main event attracted 296 players, while the Asian Poker Tour main event in Macau saw its attendance top that at 326 players. This was not lost on the players at the Bike. “There’s a couple of key factors here,” said Daniel Negreanu, “One, there’s a tournament in Asia right now, two, there is a tournament in the Ukraine, and what that does is gives the European player that would come to this event other choices.” With so many options on the table, Kid Poker recognised that the necessity for European players to travel to the U.S. in search of poker tournaments no longer exists.

Allen Kessler also acknowledged the increase in competition from international tournaments when addressing the situation. “Hard Rock has just 36 players in their $2,500 main event, that’s pretty bad. People are playing a lot of these foreign tournaments right now,” said Kessler. He also thought there was an easy solution to the problem, “Why schedule your event on exactly the same day as someone else’s main event?”

Negreanu ultimately kept optimistic concerning the future, especially when the economy recovers, but the future will still hold international competition for U.S. events. “The fact that the economy is as bad as it is right now and there is still 278 people here, you should consider that a major success. I don’t see the numbers as being a bad thing and I think that will rebound when the economy rebounds, but there is more competition and more events,” said Negreanu.

Solutions for the Short Term
The announcement that the Borgata Poker Open lowered its WPT no-limit hold’em championship buy-in to $3,500 was well received by players earlier this month, and if history is any indication a $5,000 buy-in for U.S. tournaments might not be such a bad idea. The largest turnout for a WPT Legends of Poker event took place in 2005, when 839 players attended the $5,000 no-limit hold’em championship.

Jimmy “Gobboboy” Fricke said, “I honestly think there should be $5k’s, everything should be $5k’s. They could get 500 people per $5k and it would still be a huge event with a bunch of money for first place. I don’t see why it’s a problem, but everyone else seems to think they should be $10k’s. People think they can’t take a step back because it shows weakness. You’re supposed to make decisions for the good of the game and right now they’re not.”

Fricke went on to state that there are very few players in the poker economy that are still buying themselves into big buy-in tournaments. If things continue the way they are currently going, the money that supplies these players bankrolls could dry up. “You have people with limited bankrolls or recreational players with lots of money that will get to the point where they just can’t play anymore. The buy-ins are still going up, the number of people are going down, and everyone is going broke except for the casinos,” said Fricke.

Another solution proposed by players was to flatten out the payout structures for big buy-in events so that more players can collect a return on their investment. “Why would anybody play in a tournament where first place is a million dollars and second place is $400,000? All of these people are feeding in $10,000 for one person to win a million dollars and second place is only $400,000. How can the tournament sustain itself that way? You need a more balanced payout structure,” said Allen Kessler.

Fricke also disagreed with disproportionate payouts. “I understand what they were trying to do; they want to make it a million for first place. A million for first place isn’t that crazy anymore, if first place is $700k they’re still going to get players. I’d rather have the tournaments still be around rather than having two tournaments a year where you get $5 million for first,” said Fricke.

Poker Planning
So how do poker players decide where to spend their tournament dollar with shrinking fields in the U.S. and a plethora of international options on the table during a crowded autumn tournament schedule? “I really don’t like traveling internationally whatsoever, so I don’t like going to international tournaments anymore. When I was under-21 it was a different story because I had to go over there,” said Fricke, “Now I live in Vegas and I prefer to play in Vegas and L.A. tournaments if possible.”

The 2008 Legends of Poker runner-up Amit Makhija stated that staying close to cash game options and the comforts of home is a priority. “L.A. made a lot of sense just because Commerce and the Bike were close and the cash games are great. Vegas games are pretty nitty and they usually don’t get much higher than $10-$20 these days. Living out here, I can get into a game at any time for as high as I want, but most importantly, the games are just better. There’s a lot of action,” said Makhija.

Another finalist from the 2008 Legends of Poker event with an opinion on the matter was Zach Clark, who also had a preference for Californian card rooms. “I don’t mind travelling itself, but travelling can often put you in a negative E.V. [expected value] situation. You go off to a place like Aruba which has a $5,000 buy-in, and you’ll spend $10,000 easily on room and board, and all of a sudden you need a 200-percent R.O.I. [return on investment] to break even,” said Clark.

Riding Out the Plateau
The change in expectations for U.S. poker tournament fields will continue to shape the decisions of poker players everywhere in the near future. Until some large changes take place, the tournament poker industry will need to adjust in order to ride out the current plateau. For a generation of young players eager to make their mark on the game, this lull in field sizes couldn’t come at a worse time. Fricke embodied the current frustration of many young players when he was asked about the timing of his 21st birthday. “It kind of sucks, I missed out on the big World Series of Poker main events. I could have been playing in 2005 and 2006 when the fields were just huge and soft and great. It’s just the past now and we have to try and make the poker world good in the next couple of years. When poker bounces back it may be better than it was before,” said Fricke.