Lucky?

“All of us have bad luck and good luck. The man who persists through the bad luck … who keeps right on going … is the man who is there when the good luck comes and is ready to receive it!” — Robert Collier

“Who just left that seat?” I joked as the new player in the seat I had just left raked in a monster pot. But being a logical poker player, I know that it didn’t matter.

Seat selection is an important variable over which you have some control in a poker game. Having bad players, especially loose ones, to your right is of great value, as is having tight, unimaginative players to your left. But it has absolutely nothing to do with catching cards. There is no such thing as a lucky seat. Each seat has the exact same chance of being dealt given cards. Each hand dealt constitutes an independent trial. Of course, extracting maximum value from the cards you receive is highly dependent on position, and where you are seated relative to players with various playing tendencies.

Those who focus on external events, superstitions, and luck, thinking they will affect the outcome of the game, tend not to truly understand the math and laws of probability that affect the outcomes.

A friend of mine often asks: When you are catching cards, how do you know if and when your rush is going to end? I’ve told him repeatedly that you don’t. Your rush might end the next hand, or you could remain on fire for a week. He doesn’t believe me — and that indicates that he doesn’t understand the fundamental principles of the game. He believes that cards run in predictable patterns of which an observant player can distinguish the timing, and the fact that he can’t figure out the equation frustrates him. But you can’t know. Cards fall in random cycles, and laws of probability govern their distribution.

That’s not to say that luck doesn’t matter! Poker is a game of luck and skill, and a large part of the challenge is making decisions based on future outcomes that are affected by chance. That’s why they call it gambling. That said, playing your cards right will give you a mathematical expectation edge in those gambling situations when your opponents are playing their cards wrong. A good poker player who’s playing against inferior players will surely win over time, just as a casino craps table will surely get the money over the long haul.

Yeah, luck matters, in life and in the game. If you turn right, you meet your soulmate for life; if you turn left, you get run over by a truck. But much of what people perceive to be luck is made or broken by the individual. That said, you can control your luck to some extent, through “risk-management” techniques both at the poker table and in life. And in both life and the game, thoughtful decision-making will position you to have the greatest advantage when you’re experiencing good luck, and minimize the negative results when your luck sours.

Some people love to be at risk; they thrive on the stress of being all in; their adrenaline feeds them emotionally. They spend endless resources creating those emotional highs, like drug addicts seeking higher highs. They live to play and love always being on the edge, but tend to suffer from burnout. They swing wildly, in both life and the game. When running well, they appear to be the superstars of today. But when the deck turns, as it always does, they burn up quickly, both financially and emotionally. The mentally tougher among them recover and put it all back together, but it takes a toll on the human psyche, and over time it drags them down.

Some believe in streaks of luck. When they win a pot, they play the next hand. When they are “running good,” they play their “rush,” thinking that because they won the previous hand, the chances that they will win the current hand have somehow increased. Conversely, when they are on a downhill slide and feeling unlucky, they tighten up, as they are not emotionally willing to take any more risks.

What your opponents think of luck is an important component of reading their hand ranges. Knowing when and to what extent they have loosened or tightened up based on their emotional reaction to how they have been running, and considering how that affects their play of the hand, will change your correct play of the hand.

What you think of luck and fluctuations comes into play when deciding what, when, and where to play. Your lifestyle choices and bankroll depth also enter the equation. If you’re not into poker for the “charge” and are looking for just a consistent income, or you’re playing on a tight bankroll, playing limit poker in a solid manner will limit your fluctuations and stress significantly. Playing in tighter games and games that tend to have lower fluctuations, or playing in a low-fluctuation manner, will control your variance. Conversely, firing it up in fast-action, high-variance games should give you your fair share of adrenaline rushes, but it also requires a larger bankroll and a tougher mental disposition.

How you react to streaks of luck is going to affect your game far more than luck itself. Good poker players consistently play just the odds, are unaffected mentally by good or bad streaks, and just let the chips fall where they may, knowing that they will end up in their stack in the long run. And, of course, they bring their lucky card protector!

Longtime poker pro and author Roy Cooke’s Card Player column has appeared since 1992. A successful Las Vegas real estate broker since 1990, his website is www.roycooke.com. Should you wish to inquire regarding real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his phone number is (702) 396-6575. Roy’s longtime collaborator John Bond’s website is www.johnbondwriting.com. Find John and Roy on Facebook.