‘Easy’ Things to Do to Win at Poker — Part VI

This series of columns focuses on things that you can do at the table to improve your decision-making. I have been discussing each item on the list below, extracted from my book Advanced Limit Hold’em Strategy.

• Pay more attention
• Select the best games
• Learn how your opponents play
• Study betting patterns
• Analyze every situation
• Plan in advance
• Play focused on the game
• Count the pot
• Compute the odds
• Figure out how the play might go
• Estimate what your opponents think you hold and how you should respond
• Then, make a decision

In my last column, I explored how to analyze different situations (all of the columns in this series are available at www.CardPlayer.com). This column will focus on the next point, plan in advance.

Plan in advance: There are two types of planning that you need to do during a hand:
• What are your opponents likely to do on this betting round?
• What card(s) may come on the next round(s), and how may it (they) affect the betting?

What are your opponents likely to do on this betting round? Sometimes, when you are out of position and trying to determine what to do, try to anticipate how play is likely to proceed. Let’s take a flop like the J 10 7. You have the K J in the big blind. There was an early-position raise and three callers. You also called, and now the action is on you again. What should you do?

You can see that there are many draws on the flop, and that it tends to be the sort of flop that could mesh with the hands of players who called the early-position raise. Some of these players are aggressive and will raise with their draws, hoping to get a free card, or to build a pot just in case they get there. If you bet into the raiser, he may raise, but there is little doubt that this board is an excellent candidate in many games to be three-bet, or more.

Even if you are ahead right now (which is problematic), you have no good redraws, and will have to pay a lot to find out where you are. If you were thinking of betting to protect your hand here, you should probably change your mind. Check, and if it comes back to you with several raises, fold.

Compare this to a J 7 2 flop. Now, you may well have the best hand, you do not anticipate any “fancy” raises, and you do need to protect your hand from an ace or queen hitting. Bet out. If you are raised by an aggressive preflop raiser, it does not mean that you are behind, but it will help to thin the field. And regardless of whether he calls or folds, players with Q-10 and A-X will likely fold, thus removing opponents with some possible outs.

You can actually practice this. Early in my playing days, I spent several months doing what I called “sensing raises.” Every flop, whether I was in the hand or not, I tried to guess whether or not the pot would be raised, and by whom. This exercise considerably improved my ability to tell which types of flops were most likely to attract raises, and which opponents were most likely to do the raising.

What card(s) may come on the next round(s), and how may it (they) affect the betting? I am not asking you to be psychic here, although it would help. Before you act on a given street, think about what cards may appear on the next street, and how they may affect the action.

Let’s say that you have the A J on the button. An early-position player raises, one middle-position player calls, and so do you. You see a Q 5 3 flop. The original raiser bets, the next player calls, and you raise, for both present value and a possible free card. Unfortunately, your plan falls apart when the raiser three-bets and the next player folds. You are very happy to see the 8 on the turn. The original raiser bets, and it is your turn. You would like to raise now, but if you do, he might fold a hand that he would bet on the river, so you consider waiting. However, if another heart hits, he certainly will check, and may not call at all. While he may fold to a raise now, he may not, and you would like the best chance to collect three big bets. You will never do that if you call and a heart comes on the river, so you realize that you must raise now.

You hold the K K in early position. A tight player raises from under the gun, you reraise, and everyone folds back to the original raiser, who pops it again. Whether or not this a cap does not matter, as you assume that he has aces and do not plan to raise again.

You love the K 7 5 flop. You figure that he will put you on A-K if you raise here, so you raise when he bets, and sure enough, he three-bets. You decide that you would like to raise again on a later street, to get a double bet in, so you call here. The turn is the 2. Your opponent bets, and you have to decide whether to raise here or on the river. There is little doubt that he will bet the river unless you make quads, and perhaps even then. But you realize that if you raise now and an ace comes, you will wish that you hadn’t. The chances are slim, but they do exist, and it costs almost nothing to find out. Call here, and raise the river unless you see the dreaded ace.

Thinking ahead a street or two can help you time your bets better, win the most money possible, and save some when bad things are about to happen.

Next issue, we will look at staying focused on the game.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold’em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold’em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].