Hand 2 Hand Combat -- Chris Wallace

Event: Full Tilt Poker no-limit hold’em online cash game
Players at the Table: 9  
Stacks: Fox – $336; Villain1 – $209; Villain2 – $36
Blinds: $1-$2

Fox raises to $6 from middle position with the A J. Villain1 calls from the button. Villain2 shoves all in for $36.

Craig Tapscott: I hate it when that happens. Short-stackers are all over the tables online these days. Some are excellent players with a plan, but most are horrible. Let’s break down all of the factors that go into battling these pesky short stacks.

Chris “Fox” Wallace: Sounds good. The stats I had on him were indicative of a fairly typical short-stacker. This gave me reason to believe that he would be pushing with a wide range. I also knew that the other big stack behind me was a solid player, which was very important to this hand.

CT: What’s an advantage of playing with a short stack?

Fox: One of the big advantages of short stacks is their ability to use their big-stacked opponents to scare each other, while they don’t have to be afraid of the big stacks themselves. They also increase variance for good players; almost all solid cash-game players hate variance and tend to be risk-averse, which makes them want to avoid playing a hand with short stacks. This hand is a prime example of both of these advantages coming into play in a perfect situation for the short stack.

CT: So, what’s the best way to decipher how to proceed?

Fox: He could have a big hand, but all I care about is his range and how my hand plays against it when compared to the pot odds I’m being offered. The big stack behind me is of no concern to the short stack, because he knows that anyone who calls a raise in position with a big stack instead of reraising probably has a speculative hand and will fold to his big shove the vast majority of the time. Luckily, I also know this, and I’m not afraid of the big stack behind me, either. I know that he’s solid and I expect him to fold more than 90 percent of the time.

CT: What mistakes do players make versus short-stackers?

Fox: They either fold to the all-in reraise too often or do not plan ahead when they make their raises preflop. I tell all of my students that the more you can plan out your hand, the better your results will be. If there are two short-stackers in the blinds and you raise from the button with A-2, you need to be prepared to call a push or you should fold it, because you are going to see an all-in reraise from one of them at least 20 percent of the time in this situation.

CT: So, this looks like a yummy situation for a good short-stacker?

Fox: Yes. He sees my raise as indicating a fairly wide range of hands, and he’s right — as my range is about 15 percent of all hands if it is folded around to me in late-middle position in a no-limit hold’em cash game. He also knows that the other big stack has an even wider range, and will almost always fold. Typically, the short stack can expect a fold from both of us around 70 percent of the time.

CT: So, what range do you think he’s assigning you to make this +EV [positive expected value] for him?

Fox: If he assumes that my calling range is something like 5-5+, A-9+ suited, K-Q suited, A-10+ offsuit, and K-Q offsuit, and he raises all in with a range that includes 2-2+, A-2+ suited, K-5+ suited, Q-7+ suited, J-7+ suited, 10-8+ suited, 9-7+ suited, 8-7 suited, 7-6 suited, A-7+ offsuit, K-8+ offsuit, Q-9+ offsuit, J-9+ offsuit, and 10-9 offsuit, he will win the pot about 40 percent of the time when I call. This is about 33 percent of all hands, which might be a little loose. But I think this is actually a range with which many short-stackers will push when they have this much fold equity, and it is a profitable play against players with big stacks who fold too much in this spot.

CT: Take it to the math for me, Fox, because I know how you think.

Fox: OK. Understanding how he thinks makes it much easier to beat him. Let’s say that he will get both of us to fold 70 percent of the time, and he wins $15; that puts his fold equity at .7 x $15 = $10.50.

If I call — which will happen 30 percent of the time, given the hand range assumption above — he will win the hand 40 percent of the time. When he wins, he makes $45, so the equity for that portion of the play is .3 × .4 x $45 = $5.40.

If I call (again, 30 percent of the time) and he loses, which will happen 60 percent of the time, he loses $36. That puts the negative equity for this portion of the play at .3 × .6 x $36 = $6.48.
The total equity from his perspective when he pushes with such a wide range is $10.50 + $5.40 – $6.48 = $9.42.

CT: So, you really have to put yourself in the mindset of a short-stacker to beat him.

Fox: Definitely. You have to understand these players and be able to think like them. If you know how their style works and what kind of situations they are looking for, you will be able to effectively put them on a hand range and make profitable decisions. I have a spreadsheet that is set up to deal with these short-stack problems. And with help from the free program PokerStove and a simple spreadsheet to do some of the math for you, you can learn exactly when to call the short stacks and make a profit.

CT: I’m sure that by calling, it makes the short-stackers a bit wary of you, too.

Fox: Yes. I tend to call in any situation against short stacks when I think the equity is close to even, because some of them are paying attention. They may note that you will call light, which slows them down and makes them easier to deal with. In addition, you will find that many of the short stacks stop messing with you, and life gets easier.

CT: Great stuff, Fox. Now let’s get back to the hand. I doubt that you folded.

Fox: You’re correct. I reraised, to make absolutely certain that the other big stack would fold.

Fox reraises to $72. Villain1 folds.

Flop: K 9 8 (pot: $80) 
Turn: 3 (pot: $80) 
River: 2 (pot: $80) 

Villain2 reveals the A 7. Fox wins the pot of $80.

Chris “Fox” Wallace is a professional poker player, poker coach, and author. He is currently the head cash-game instructor at PokerXFactor.com and a member of the pro team at the Poker Pros Network, where he can be found at the tables. His personal website is foxpoker.com.