Extracting the Extra Value

Much of the equity value that you receive from a hand comes from how you play the hand. Average players make basic betting errors, causing their holdings to lose much of their value. If you find yourself getting lower value than your opponents in comparable situations, you are in a world of hurt at the poker table. Those extra bets that you gain or lose in the play of a hand add up significantly over time. Good players make every effort to extract every ounce of value from their winning hands and reduce the lost-value cost of their losing hands.

I was deep into a $30-$60 limit hold’em session. A loose tourist limped in from up front and I raised from middle position with the K Q. The button called, as did a woman in the big blind. Four of us saw the flop, which was K 2 2. It was checked around to me, and I fired a wager into the pot. The button folded, the woman in the big blind called, and the loose limper tossed his hand into the muck. I was heads up with the big blind.

The dealer turned the 9. To my surprise, the woman fired into me. How should I play my hand? I pondered. How can I get the most value? I thought she had either a king with a weaker kicker than mine, a deuce, or possibly K-9; or, she was bluffing. Since she was knowledgeable and capable of check-raising, and a wider portion of her hand range would contain a king rather than specifically K-9 or a deuce, I felt that her most likely hand contained a king.

My reasoning was that since she was capable of check-raising, she might check-call the flop and then check-raise with a deuce, but not with a king, thereby increasing the likelihood that she held a king rather than a deuce. I also thought she might check-raise the turn if she held K-9. Plus, she would call preflop with more hands containing a king than a deuce. That said, none of this was indubitable, and she could hold a deuce or K-9. She also could be bluffing or have a weak wired pair, but I thought the chances of these scenarios were small.

I thought about how my hand would play. Folding was out of the question, so my choices were limited to calling or raising. If I raised, I would get reraised by a deuce, fold a bluff, and probably get paid off by a king, although she might fold a king with a weak kicker.

What if I just called? Like many players, she was the type to continue bluffing once she had started. If I flat-called, she would have no reason to think any of her legitimate holdings would not be good, and I thought it highly likely that she would bet the river if I flat-called the turn.

Would it be better to make her fold, or would it be a better risk-reward play to let her keep betting? If I held the best hand, I would gain an extra bet(s) if she was bluffing or if I obtained a called raise on the river. Plus, if I raised and got reraised, I might have to fold. Also, if I flat-called the turn, I would have an extra street to get a read on my opponent and might pick up some extra information that could help me formulate a better decision on the river. With the mid-size pot, the extra bet(s) gained, combined with the additional percentage chance of winning, more than compensated for the extra risk of losing or splitting the pot if I called. I flat-called her bet.

The river brought the 4 and she fired into me once again. I raised, feeling that given the way I had played my hand, she would be confused about my holding. She thought for a long while and called. I turned my hand over, and she slowly nodded her head and mucked without showing.

I felt that I had taken the least amount of equity risk and acquired the maximum equity return on my hand. And that is a hand well-played!

When analyzing these risk-reward situations, one must be careful not to calculate just the equity of the bets on all of the viable scenarios, but also the equity of the risks. Risks include the likelihood of losing the pot, splitting the pot, or losing extra bets. These factors are difficult to quantify. Nonetheless, you must have an understanding of this concept and accurately run these equations through your mind.

A good exercise is to observe hands in which you are not involved, and make the extra-value calculation. It’s a more valuable use of your time, although not nearly as fun as flirting with the cocktail waitress, and it will help you to develop a feel that will improve your decision-making process.

Longtime poker pro and author Roy Cooke’s Card Player column has appeared since 1992. A successful Las Vegas real estate broker since 1990, his website is www.roycooke.com. Should you wish to inquire regarding real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his phone number is (702) 396-6575. Roy’s longtime collaborator John Bond’s website is www.johnbondwriting.com. Find John and Roy on Facebook.