‘Easy’ Things to Do to Win at Poker — Part X

This series of columns focuses on things that you can do at the table to improve your decision-making. I have been discussing each item on the list below, extracted from my book Advanced Limit Hold’em Strategy.

• Pay more attention
• Select the best games
• Learn how your opponents play
• Study betting patterns
• Analyze every situation
• Plan in advance
• Play focused on the game
• Count the pot
• Compute the odds
• Figure out how the play might go
• Estimate what your opponents think you hold and how you should respond
• Then, make a decision

In my last column, I discussed figuring out how the play might go (all of the columns in this series are available at www.CardPlayer.com). This column will wrap things up with a discussion of estimating what your opponents think you hold and how you should respond, and finally, making a decision.

Estimate what your opponents think you hold and how you should respond: I sometimes tell my students (half-jokingly) that the biggest mistake they make in a hand is looking at their cards. Of course, I do not mean they should play the hand blind, but because they know what they have, they often fail to see their holding from their opponents’ perspective.

Every time you check, bet, or raise, think about the range of hands that you could have to make that play. Let’s look at an example:

You are on the button with the 10 9. A middle-position player open-raises, and two others call. You also decide to call, and both blinds fold. Four of you see the flop, J 8 2. The preflop raiser bets, and one of the limpers calls. You decide to try for a free card with your open-end straight draw, and raise. Both players call.

The 6 hits the turn, and both players check to you. You check back, taking the free card. The 4 on the river misses you completely. The preflop raiser bets, and the other guy folds. This hand is over, right? You tried, you missed, you fold, next hand.

But wait. Consider this hand from your opponent’s perspective. You raised for a free card, and took it. While you had a straight draw, it’s likely that he put you on a flush draw — and the flush got there.

So, why is he betting? Because he is not sure. You could have had, say, A-8, and raised to try to catch one of your five outs. If he has A-J or Q-Q, or even 10-10, he is going to want to get a call from you, since you may put him on A-K.

Should you raise, representing a flush, and try to get him to fold his hand? Maybe. Trying it depends on several factors, including how much he pays attention, whether or not he is capable of folding when he “knows” that you have a flush, how solid your image is at the moment, whether he is winning or losing, and others. If you decide that the factors are in your favor, raise! The key is to realize that you could easily have a flush, based on your previous actions, so act accordingly.

Bluffing is not the only reason to keep track of what your opponents think you have and what you should do. Another is simply being able to lay down a hand. If your opponents “know” what you have, and still keep raising, you are beat, and should be able to get away from your hand.

This is also true if you have been betting strongly all along and get raised on the river. Most players fully expect you to call here, and they expect to show down a winning hand. This is player-dependent, of course, but many opponents are reasonably straightforward, and if they raise in expectation of being called, and you do not have a major surprise for them, fold and save your money.

Make a decision: I now bring this long series to a close and summarize what has been covered. The series has been devoted to things you can do to improve your decision-making process. After all, poker is nothing more than an extremely long series of decisions. Deciding what to play and how to play it, over and over again, separates the winners from the losers in the long run. Most importantly, your decisions and the processes that you use to arrive at them are the only things that you can control at the table. The better they are, the better your chances (and results) will be.

Making quality decisions starts with simply paying attention. If you do nothing else, this is the area in which you must improve. Most of the information that you will use throughout a session is available when you are not in a hand, which, if you are a good player, is most of the time.

Next is game selection. This series has advocated that you recognize which games are best for you in terms of being able to stay on track, play your natural style, and make sound decisions. Not every game type is good for every player. Knowing your strengths and weaknesses, and following through on them, can make a big difference to your bottom line.

Understanding how your opponents play, and with which hands they bet, raise, and check-raise, is the next step. Planning and knowing the odds and risks comes next. Every time you put money in a pot, you risk that sum for the prospect of a future reward. You must clearly understand the potential reward and your probability of getting it.

Figuring out how the play might go will help you understand what your realistic chances of winning the pot are, and how much you are likely to win or lose. You may get this wrong, of course, but thinking about future play and planning for it are essential to the decision-making process. Far too many players simply play from street to street, responding only when it is their turn to play.

Finally, looking at your hand from your opponents’ point of view will help immeasurably, as discussed above. Understanding what they are thinking and figuring out whether or not they can think correctly are major assets in this process.

Not one of the things covered in this series is beyond the ability of most players. In that respect, these things are “easy.” What makes them hard is that doing them is not as much fun as talking football, watching TV, or figuring out how to change the play mix on your iPod. Some players also focus on completely irrelevant things, like who just dealt them their latest bad beat.

Focusing on things that matter, observing to gather information, and logically using the knowledge gained to make the best plays is all you can do. If you become one of the few people who actually do these things, your profits will substantially increase.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold’em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold’em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].