Sports Desk

World Cup — South Africa Here We Come
It’s the World Cup. It’s been four years coming, there’s not much more needed in the way of hype. It’s time to do a bit of myth-busting — or at the very least expanding on the myth. One of the most commonly touted facts ahead of this tournament in South Africa will be the inability of European sides to claim the World Cup when the tournament is held anywhere other than on their home continent. With the event moving to Africa for the first time in its history, this piece of trivia will get cited as irrefutable evidence as to why a European nation will not win the latest renewal of the tournament.

South American sides have indeed claimed all eight of the tournaments held outside European borders and there’s no denying that, but this fact carries with it the erroneous implication that Europe’s nations simply capitulate when on foreign soil. In actual fact, in six of those eight finals European opposition generally lost out only by slim margins. In these eight non-European World Cups, it’s also worth noting European nations claimed 11 of the 16 third and fourth places, suggesting they weren’t a million miles off the pace.

Climate would seem to be the explanation for this bizarre discrepancy. To be good enough to reach the latter stages but to fade when reserves of stamina are at their lowest suggests a deficiency in fitness rather than technique. Naturally enough, South American teams have felt more at home in South America and accordingly ensured the trophy was spared the hassle of a journey elsewhere after tournaments on the continent. When the tournament was hosted in Mexico, the USA, and Japan and South Korea, the heat and humidity was again something the South Americans were more accustomed to. Of course a lot of players ply their trade in Europe, but the fact they’ve been raised in these conditions gives them an edge no amount of acclimatisation can truly emulate. South Africa promises something different. The conditions will vary hugely from one part of this vast country to another, but it is still winter and as such should be more suited to the typical European constitution. It’s far from conclusive, but as a guide, the South African conditions should fall between a mild European Mediterranean winter with temperatures around the mid to high teens and a cold European winter with single digit temperatures. And rain. Expect rain throughout the Rainbow nation.

The upshot of all this is that it’s hard to rule out any of the leading contenders. As much as FIFA would like it, it’s still massively unlikely an African team will win it. We can expect one or two to make the quarter-finals or maybe even have a representative in the semi-finals if things go their way, but beyond a handful of superstars, the quality of players in their squad drops off rapidly and this lack of depth should ensure they get found out. It’s a similar story for the Asian and North and Central American nations who are making huge strides, but don’t have the reserves of talent required at this level. With Messi in their ranks, Argentina will look a tempting prospect. Add to the mix Aguero, Tevez, and Mascherano and you might be very tempted, but taken out of the Barcelona system, Messi isn’t afforded the space to recreate his sensational club form at international level. Plus for all their attacking talent, they lack defensive quality and there’s little evidence to suggest Diego Maradona has the tactical nous to compensate for these shortcomings.

Spain once again tick all the right boxes. With organisation, real talent, and depth they have undoubted claims to add to their European Championship of 2008. This may not be a Brazil side to rival the vintage Samba Boys, but Dunga has injected the pragmatism that makes them a more balanced outfit and one well equipped to claim a sixth title. Under the effective guidance of Fabio Capello, England are also genuine contenders, but a major concern is the shortage of world-class strikers. Should Wayne Rooney succumb to injury or suspension they’re left with a collection of forwards a lot less likely to provide that moment of brilliance that drags a team through those tight games. Plus, from a betting point of view, there is the perennial problem in backing England that is patriotic money. The volume of money wishful thinking supporters have put on their team has already shortened the odds to a point that isn’t a true reflection of the probability involved. We can expect Germany to be typically dogged and workmanlike, and with that in mind, the 14/1 bookies have priced them at is spot on — slim enough for a team lacking the highest standard of player, but just big enough to remind you that this is the Germans and they always seem to pull something out of the bag.

Quick Hits
France to get knocked out at the group stage 7/2 — Utterly unconvincing in qualifying, blessed in the playoff, lacking quality and leadership in key areas, and with a manager who is a liability. They face a few decent teams they’re likely to underestimate in Group A along with the hosts and an early exit looks distinctly possible.

South Africa to be the top African team 16/1 — Without suggesting anything untoward, host nations seem to have a history of things going their way. With home advantage and a World Cup winning manager at the helm, 16/1 looks to be great value.

Robin Van Persie to be top goal scorer at 40/1 – He may not have seen the bright side of being laid up for over half of the Premier League season, but the upshot for Robin Van Persie is that he will arrive relatively fresh at the World Cup. Holland have one of the easier groups and considering he’ll take most of their penalties, a lot of their attacking free-kicks, and his team are expected to play five or six games, 40/1 looks to be a big price.