Top Pair as a Bluff Catcher

Top pair is a critical hold’em hand. It’s one that you’ll make frequently, and depending on the situation, its value can range from quite strong to nearly worthless. The large swing in its value from situation to situation also makes it tricky to play. If you aren’t keenly aware of how your top pair stacks up to the competition in each pot, you can get into trouble.

Roughly speaking, top pair can take on one of two roles for you. It can behave as either a value hand or a bluff catcher, depending on the situation. In my next column, I’ll discuss playing top pair for value. This column discusses playing top pair as a bluff catcher.

When Good Hands Go Bad

Bluff catchers are not good hands. By definition, they’re good enough to beat only a bluff. They aren’t going to beat many — if any — of the legitimate hands that your opponents could have. So, most of the time you should fold them. And even when you find yourself compelled to call with a bluff catcher, you usually lose more often than not.

Unfortunately, top pair frequently becomes a bluff catcher by the river. Here’s a typical situation: It’s a live $2-$5 no-limit hold’em game with $1,000 stacks. One player limps in and you raise to $25 from the button with the Q J. The big blind calls, as does the limper.

The flop comes J 8 4. Everyone checks, you bet $50, and the big blind raises to $100. The limper folds, and you call.

The turn is the 4. The big blind bets $75. You call.

The river is the 10. The big blind bets $150.

When you raise preflop and flop top pair, you typically feel good about it. It’s often all the hand you’ll need to win the pot. But this particular pot doesn’t go according to plan. The big blind check-raises you on the flop and bets the turn and river. The bet sizes aren’t large, and the board has not threatened your hand, but you nevertheless are in trouble.

You have only a bluff catcher. The strongest hand that you beat is J-9. Most players would be much more passive with J-9. They’d tend to check and call rather than check-raise, bet, and bet. The same goes for weaker made hands like 10-10, A-8, and the like. Despite the small bet-sizing, people simply don’t play this way with hands that you beat often enough to consider your top pair anything but a bluff catcher.

If you call the river, you can expect to see a better hand. It could be A-J, A-A, the A 4, or 8-8. Or, it could be something else. But it likely will beat you. Your only hope is that your opponent has been bluffing with a flush or straight draw. But this isn’t probable, either, because most players don’t bluff this way. They either make a large bet or bet after a show of weakness. A series of small bets into strength is not often a bluff.

Because top pair is a bluff catcher in this situation, and a bluff is unlikely, the river is a clear fold. In fact, against many opponents who like to make small bets like these, you can fold earlier in the hand.

Three Questions

How do you figure out whether your top pair is a value hand or a bluff catcher? And if it’s a bluff catcher, how do you decide whether you should call or not? Ask yourself three questions.

Has an opponent bet into you or raised your bet? If the answer is no, you can likely play your top pair for value. Top pair is a strong hand, and if your opponent has shown no strength, you can fairly assume that you’re ahead much more often than not.

Think of the strongest hand that you can beat. Would your opponent play this strongly if he held that hand? If the answer is no, you likely have a bluff catcher. To play your top pair for value, your opponent needs to have hands in his range that you can beat. If he’s played too strongly to hold the hand just weaker than yours, you’d better hope that he’s bluffing.

Does he bluff often enough to justify calling? If not, fold. A bluff catcher is a bluff catcher. Top-pair bluff catchers and bottom-pair bluff catchers have almost the same value. Yet, most players are far more willing to call with top pair to “keep someone honest” than with bottom pair. I think players call too often with top pair in this situation, and perhaps not often enough with bottom pair. If your top pair is a bluff catcher, treat it that way. Don’t call with it just because you’re frustrated that it’s not good anymore.

Here’s how you might use the three questions in a real hand. Again, it’s a $2-$5 game with $1,000 stacks. You have the A Q and open for $20 from three off the button. A player calls behind you, and both blinds call.

The flop comes A 10 8. Everyone checks to you. No one has shown aggression so far, so you can play your hand for value. Players with weaker aces and draws will certainly call. You bet $80. Only the small blind calls.

The turn is the 3. The small blind bets $120. Now, someone has shown aggression, so you have to ask the second question. Would your opponent play A-J this way? It’s conceivable. Your opponent also could hold a hand like the A 3, or the K 10 and be betting the pair plus the flush draw. Or, you could be drawing dead against a made flush or slim against another better hand. The bet is small enough and your winning chances are big enough to call.

The river is the 7♦. The small blind bets $500. Would your opponent play A-J this way? Almost certainly not. It’s a huge bet for a player with A-J to make. Top pair is now a bluff catcher. Does your opponent bluff often enough to call? His bet is slightly bigger than pot-sized, so you need to win one time in three to justify a call. On this board, a bluff is not nearly that likely. Both the flush draw and the J-9 straight draw have come in. Not many hands would spend so much on the flop and turn, yet amount to nothing on this river. Q-J fits the bill, and it’s still possible for your opponent to have a hand like the K 10. But far more often, your opponent will have the big hand that he’s representing. You have a bluff catcher, and you’re not getting odds to call. Fold.

If you ask yourself these three questions when you have top pair, you’ll be able to get away from the hand more often when you should.

Ed’s latest book, Small Stakes No-Limit Hold’em, is available for purchase at smallstakesnolimitholdem.com. He is a featured coach at cardrunners.com, and you can also check out his online poker advice column, notedpokerauthority.com.