Evaluation

There are some old gambling stories that are not only amusing, but also contain a kernel of important information. Here are two:

1. Someone once asked Johnny Crawford, one of the best money bridge players of his era, what he would do with a certain hand. (In money bridge, each player has a partner and two opponents. Periodically, they rotate, so a player’s new partner is one of his former opponents.)

He asked, “Who is my partner?”

His questioner said, “Who cares? Let’s say it’s another Johnny Crawford.”

He asked, “Then, who are my opponents?”

He was told, “Two more Johnny Crawfords.”

He instantly responded, “I wouldn’t play in that game, it’s too tough!”

2. The first time that someone described Eric Drache to me, he said, “He is the ninth-best stud player in the world. Unfortunately, he likes to play with the other eight.”

Notice any similarity in these two stories? The title of this column should be a clue. They both deal with evaluating how good a game is. Evaluating if a game is good is a very personal thing. There are mixed games that Phil Ivey might think are great. There are pot-limit Omaha games online that Tom Dwan might think are great. I’d think they are tough, and almost certainly would be a loser. I might see a small mixed game or pot-limit Omaha game at Bellagio, and think it’s great. All that this requires is evaluating both the game and your skill level relative to it.

Probably the most important factor in determining how much you win in poker is finding games with players who are significantly worse than you are. In Las Vegas or online, there is often a huge choice of games. Even if you restrict yourself to something very specific, like $1-$2 blinds no-limit hold’em, there are lots of games. The big online sites very often have 20 to 50 games going. If you prefer live action, every casino with a poker room has at least one table going, and many have several.

How do you decide where to play? Online, you can sort by games with the biggest average pot size. They usually have the most action. In the casino, look for games where someone raises almost every hand and then four people or more often play. If you are serious about making money, it is important to become familiar with as many really bad players as you can. If you see a couple of bad players at a table, you can be pretty sure that the game is good. Then, get on the list for a seat. Even after you have a seat in a game, be sure that you pay attention to whether or not it is as good as you thought it would be. Is another game better? Has this one gotten worse? If you realize that the game isn’t good anymore (this often happens when a really bad player goes broke or quits), switch tables, or at least put your name on the waiting list for another table.

When deciding how well you match up against another player, there is a common mistake that I think is the fundamental evaluation error. Our opponents play badly. We see that they do things wrong. We also make errors, even though we may not realize it. Let’s say that there are 100 different types of errors. Our opponent makes 50 and we make 50, but not all the same ones. Let’s suppose there are 20 that we both make. Whenever we see him make one of those errors, we don’t realize that it’s an error. We do the same thing, and we wouldn’t do it if we knew that it was wrong. When we see him make one of the 30 errors that we don’t make, we immediately think that he’s a bad player. When he sees us make one of the 30 that he doesn’t make, he immediately thinks that we are bad players. In this case, two players who are approximately equal both think they are much better than the opposition. This is why you will often hear star players like Mike Matusow talking about how bad everyone else is. They see only their opponent’s errors and never notice their own.

I wish that I could recommend a way to avoid making this error, but I don’t have one. It is just too natural to see opponents’ errors and ignore our own. I can only caution you to remember that your play probably isn’t flawless, so when you see opponents making a few errors, don’t automatically think you can beat them. If you frequently play with the same group of people and they consistently beat you, they play better than you do.

In summary, look for good games, but try to be as realistic as possible in evaluating your skill level relative to that of your opponents. No one ever made money fighting against better players.

Steve “Zee” Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful games player. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at many major tournaments and playing on Full Tilt, as one of its pros. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his New York City bars near Houston on Avenue A — Nice Guy Eddie’s and The Library. Almost every Friday, he ends up at Doc Holliday’s on Avenue A at 9th Street. He has promised to buy a drink for any Card Player reader who tracks him down at one of his bars.