It’s All About the Price!

Whatever your implied odds are, the total future price that you will pay versus the potential future reward is the most significant factor in determining whether to proceed in a hand. The bigger your implied reward, the more risk you can correctly assume. Many players determine their odds based on how much money is currently in the pot, but the real price is the amount that you may win versus the totality of the risks that you must withstand.

Determining your implied odds involves an immeasurable number of variables, and even world-class players can usually just make an educated guess. The most important factors in determining your implied odds are the likely cost to proceed, your opponents’ abilities and tendencies, the likelihood that you will win, and your ability to play your hand correctly.

It was a Saturday night at Bellagio. The $30-$60 limit hold’em game I was in was a loose-passive cast of characters. It’s my favorite game type. In games of this type, your implied odds are generally much greater than the average game, as several players see the flop and rarely raise, yet tend to pay you off when you make a hand. The cheap entry price, the size of the pot, and the high probability of having the added value of being paid off when you make a hand make it possible to play many more hands with positive expectation. And the more hands that you play with positive expectation, the better your long-term results will be.

I was on the button with the Q 6. Four players had limped in, and none of them could play a lick; all were loose-passive. The blinds were not aggressive players, and unlikely to raise. I was highly likely to get 6-1 on a call, plus I was on the button. More importantly, I would get to play my hand against weak loose-passive opponents who were likely to give me free or cheap cards and pay me off if I made a hand. I flipped $30 into the pot, feeling my implied odds created a significant overlay. The small blind tossed in a chip, completing his call, and the big blind knuckled. We took the flop off seven-handed for a single bet.

The flop favored me, 7 5 3. I’d flopped a gutshot and a queen-high flush draw. The field checked to the player directly in front of me, and he fired a bet. With a draw, I oftentimes will raise and bet it down, hoping to win the pot when I don’t make my hand. And raising with your draws can have other positive benefits. But in this particular case, the player who bet was not one who would bet with a draw or fold if he held any kind of a hand. I would have to show him a made hand on the river to win the pot. And I had the rest of the field to think about, also. They thought in “call or fold” mode, meaning that they didn’t consider their pricing. If they were going to call one bet, they most likely would call two — or three, for that matter. Raising was unlikely to cause them to fold a marginal hand or draw, although it might enable me to acquire a free card on the turn. Since my fold equity was virtually nonexistent, I flat-called, looking to increase the price I was receiving on my draw by getting as many callers behind me as possible. My opponents didn’t disappoint me, as four of the five players behind me called.

The turn card was the 8, improving my gutshot to an open-ender. Once again, the field checked to the player on my immediate right, who wagered. Again, I flat-called, looking to get action from opponents behind me. Nobody folded to the bet, so six players remained.

Bang! The poker gods gifted me a flush, as the 9 hit on the river. The whole field checked to me, and I fired out a wager. Three players called my river bet. I turned over my flush, and the dealer pushed me the pot.

This hand speaks to adjusting my play based on the implied odds that I thought I would receive from the pot. My preflop call was made with a very marginal hand, while the flat-calls on the flop and the turn were based on the playing styles of my opponents and maximizing the potential for obtaining the greatest odds on my bets. Yeah, betting the river was a no-brainer; anyone would make that easy play. But while I understand that I wouldn’t necessarily hit the flop or make my hand on the river, the plays that I made created the highest positive expectation possible. I played a very marginal hand, with position, against a field of weak-passive, easy-to-read opponents, and all of the wagers that I made had a positive expectation.

Had the field been aggressive, one in which I easily could have been trapped between raisers, or had I been up against opponents who were much tighter, the implied price for my hand would have been drastically reduced, and I wouldn’t have made the preflop call.

When considering a marginal situation, think about the playing styles of your opponents and how the hand will likely play out. The greater you think your implied price is, the more marginal hands you can play. Accurately assessing these types of situations will greatly increase your expectation. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas real-estate broker/salesman in 1989. Should you wish to get any information about real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his office number is (702) 396-6575, and his e-mail address is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You also may find him on Facebook.