Avoiding the Trap

Accurately assessing your hand’s value in marginal drawing situations in limit hold’em will establish whether you should continue or fold. To effectively quantify this, you must be able to correctly read your opponent’s range of hands, assess how the different scenarios will play out on the texture of the board, and accurately estimate the effective odds of continuing. That’s not even easy to say, let alone do!
I was at Bellagio, in middle position with the J♦ 10♦ in a $30-$60 limit hold’em game. That’s a good hand, but not a great one. Many players highly overrate it. Some have even told me it’s the best starting hand. But while it is capable of making many big hands, it also tends to make many troubling second-best hands, which devalues it greatly. If you always play J-10 suited and can’t read situations well enough to get away from it when necessary, you’ll lose a lot of bets.

A passive player whom I found easy to read and run over limped in from up front. J-10 suited is a hand that can be played effectively in different ways in various situations. Here, I could raise preflop and play it aggressively, and bluff if I missed, or I could play it passively, hoping to get a large field of opponents, make a big hand, and get paid off big. In choosing the best play, I considered how my hand would play against the types of opponents I was facing. The players behind me were solid, and since I hadn’t picked up many starting hands in this session, my image was tight. So, which play would be most profitable?

If I could eliminate the preflop competition, I would have a good opportunity to win the pot if neither Mr. Passive nor I made a hand. So, I raised. By raising, I made the pot bigger, thus increasing my potential future bluffing value if I chose to do so. Also, with a raise and my tight image, I would increase my chances of playing a shorthanded pot, in which aggression had greater value.

But it didn’t play out as I had hoped. A solid player cold-called my raise, and another solid opponent three-bet. I knew that Mr. Three-Bettor had a huge hand to three-bet in that spot. The blinds folded, Mr. Passive called, and so did I and Mr. Cold-Caller. We took the flop off four-handed for $90 each, with $410 in the pot. I knew that I would have to adjust my thinking to this unexpected situation.
The flop came Q♥ 10♠ 4♥, giving me second pair, jack kicker, and a three-straight. It was not the best of flops, but I had a piece that might contain value. Mr. Passive led out, and it was my move. There was $440 in the pot; I was getting almost 15-1 pot odds on a call. That said, there were many other factors to consider. What did Mr. Passive hold in order to lead out in this situation? How would this pot play out? Was my hand even live?

Mr. Passive would not lead into two solid preflop raisers without a hand that was very strong or had the potential to become very strong. Since he was passive, I didn’t think he would bet many draws, if any. That said, a flush draw, possibly with some straight potential, was a small portion of his potential range. Would he bet A-Q or K-Q in that spot? He might, but more than likely would not. When I make hand-reading judgments, I discount the probability of a given hand in accordance with the likelihood of the opponent making a given play. I can’t accurately quantify the situation, but I can calculate it by feel based on experience.

Also, there were hands with which Mr. Passive would definitely lead. He could have Q-10 or 4-4, and lead to trap me and Mr. Cold-Caller in between himself and Mr. Three-Bettor. I also had to think about what Mr. Cold-Caller and Mr. Three-Bettor might hold and do. Mr. Three-Bettor’s range was premium starting hands: A-A, K-K, A-K, A-Q, Q-Q, J-J, 10-10. If he held Q-Q, 10-10, or A-K, he crippled my ability to draw out. With everything but J-J, which he was unlikely to hold since I held a jack, he would probably raise the flop. And if he raised the flop and Mr. Passive held more than one pair, Mr. Passive might three-bet or, worse yet, trap with a big hand. Also, I had Mr. Cold-Caller to worry about. He held a solid hand to cold-call a preflop raise, and this flop was likely to have hit his range.

I thought about calling a single bet to test the waters and see what would transpire, but the probability of being raised and/or trapped seemed too high. To avoid a bad situation, I tossed my hand into the muck. Mr. Cold-Caller called and Mr. Three-Bettor raised, and he was reraised by Mr. Passive, who fired on the turn and the river. He showed the Q♣ 10♥, having flopped top two pair. Mr. Three-Bettor showed two kings. Mr. Cold-Caller mucked on the river.

This hand speaks to evaluating the value of your draws. Your drawing strength varies greatly depending upon your position, your total number of outs, the texture of the board, your opponents’ hand ranges, and their playing styles and skill levels. Many players find themselves drawing to hands that don’t win, or end up paying a higher price to draw than they originally calculated. They often don’t realize that they didn’t calculate the situation accurately; their crucial error was drawing in a troublesome situation. Think about how your hand will play out before committing yourself to drawing. You’ll find yourself folding more draws as well as building a bigger bankroll. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas real-estate broker/salesman in 1989. Should you wish to get any information about real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his office number is (702) 396-6575, and his e-mail address is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You also may find him on Facebook.