PokerTracker Pot-Limit Omaha: The ‘Fold BB to SB Steal’ Percentage

I was looking at online six-max pot-limit Omaha (PLO) statistics on a website that purports to suggest what the optimum figure is for any given statistic, when I came across the “Folded BB to Steal” statistic. According to the site, it is optimal for a player to fold the big blind to a preflop steal attempt from the cutoff, button, or small blind as follows:

• 62 percent of the time in 50¢-$1 shorthanded PLO
• 64 percent of the time in $1-$2 shorthanded PLO
• 61 percent of the time in $2-$4 shorthanded PLO

Well, in aggregate, I fold my big blind to a steal only about 45 percent of the time at those stakes. So, basically, the site is saying that I defend my big blind much too liberally.

However, the problem is that the “Folded BB to Steal” statistic is entirely misleading. This is because in a game like PLO, where the effect of positional advantage is greatly exaggerated even when compared to no-limit hold’em, there is a big difference between defending the big blind against a steal from the button or cutoff and defending the big blind against a steal from the small blind. So, in addition to the “Folded BB to Steal” statistic, we really want to know how often a player defends the big blind against the small blind, specifically.

It turns out that PokerTracker 3 has this stat built into the program; it’s not included in the default HUD [heads-up display], but it can be manually added to the HUD or reports. The stat in question is labeled “BB v SB Steal – Fold” or “Fold BB to SB Steal.” (If you click on the “Reports” tab and sort through “Available Stats” under “All Stats,” you can find both statistics.) Both of these stats are effectively identical (this can be verified by opening the “Configure Statistics” window under the “Omaha Cash Player” section to view the actual database code).

Indeed, the reason that my “Folded BB to Steal” statistic is so low (and therefore my defense so high) is because I rarely fold to steal attempts from the small blind. Whereas, overall, I fold my big blind to steal attempts 45 percent of the time (and therefore defend it 55 percent of the time with either a call or reraise), I fold to steal attempts from the small blind only about 10 percent of the time (and therefore defend against the small blind about 90 percent of the time), which represents about a quarter of all big-blind defense situations. Essentially, I am playing virtually any four cards (at least single-suited, and no trips or quads) heads up in position.
Consequently, the “Folded BB to Steal” stat — which is commonly used by players by itself in a vacuum, without regard to the opponent’s position — is of dubious quality.
Far less ambiguous is the “Folded SB to Steal” statistic, because unless you are playing heads up, the small blind is always out of position against the raiser. On that count, I fold the small blind to steal attempts 80 percent of the time, which is more or less in line with the “optimal” range suggested by the website.

Implications

So, what does all of this mean?

Well, for starters, let’s say that you are looking to open fire on the blinds, and you see that the big blind has an unusually low “Folded BB to Steal” percentage (that is, he defends very loosely). If you look only at the “Folded BB to Steal” percentage, it might cause you to overestimate how often the big blind actually defends against steal attempts from the cutoff or button, and underestimate how often the big blind defends against steal attempts from the small blind.

This is extremely important if you are in the small blind and thinking about opening with a raise, because you want to avoid playing pots heads up out of position. And if you underestimate how often the big blind defends against small-blind steals, you could wind up playing more hands heads up out of position than you should be.

And if you are in the cutoff seat or on the button, it is good to know that the big blind defends tightly out of position if it enables you to open with a raise a little more often than you would otherwise.

That said, the “Fold BB to SB Steal” stat is what tells you how differently the big blind behaves when facing a steal from out of position (that is, against the cutoff or button) and when facing a steal from the small blind. As such, the “Fold BB to SB Steal” is a good statistic to have in your HUD alongside the standard “Folded BB to Steal” figure.

Meanwhile, on a diagnostic level, you should be very careful about letting a website that uses datamined results from a wide pool of players of all skill levels dictate what your “optimal” stats should be. For one thing, pot-limit Omaha in general is a game that is open to interpretation by the player, and your “optimal” stats will be a function of both your skill and that of your opponents. If you play well with the positional advantage and without the preflop initiative, you should be playing more hands and, consequently, have a higher VPIP [voluntarily put money in pot] than normal, especially if you are playing against weaker opponents. And while it is correct to play very tightly from the big blind out of position, you generally can afford to play quite liberally from the big blind in position against the small blind.
My opinion is that PLO players today still give up their big blind too easily against steal attempts from the small blind. And if a website determines “optimal” statistics based on data mining — and based on players who give up their big blind too easily in position — it is likely to suggest a “Folded BB to Steal” percentage that is higher than it should be. ♠

Jeff Hwang is a semiprofessional player and author of Pot-Limit Omaha Poker: The Big Play Strategy and Advanced Pot-Limit Omaha: Small Ball and Short-Handed Play. He is also a longtime contributor to the Motley Fool. His latest two books — Advanced Pot-Limit Omaha Volume II: LAG Play, and Volume III: The Short-Handed Workbook — were released in October 2010. You can check out his website at jeffhwang.com.