Thinking a Move Ahead

Hands play out very differently based on the tendencies of your opponents. Effectively adjusting your strategies in accordance with those tendencies will increase your equity. Good players think moves ahead, and effectively plan their strategies based on their reads of how they will play. Of course, accurately reading how hands will play comes only from many years of experience.

A maniac tourist was firing away in Bellagio’s $30-$60 limit hold’em game, playing most of his hands and raising most of the pots preflop, frequently in the dark. He was auto-firing on the flop with anything, as long as he didn’t feel threatened. Mr. Fast Action actually had significant poker experience and read hands reasonably well. But, he was on vacation, didn’t care about the money, and just wanted to drink and have fun gambling.

And he was having lots of fun! He joyously put the game on total tilt. Many players were playing far more hands than they normally would, and were calling far more bets and taking their hands much further than they usually would. However, because the pots were so large, it was often mathematically correct for them to do so. Other players’ loose calls make loose calls much more correct. That said, most of the players in this game tended to dramatically overplay the situation, which is why the game was on “total tilt.”

Two players had limped in, and Mr. Fast Action raised, as usual. I was sitting directly behind him and held two jacks, a hand that I would generally three-bet. But this game’s distinctive craziness often made nonstandard plays the better choice. I thought about how my hand would play, and what the best strategy would be.

If it was checked to him on the flop and he felt that he was not up against a monster hand, Mr. Fast Action would auto-fire. That fact spoke to flat-calling with my jacks, disguising that I held a premium pair. That way, I could see what happened behind me preflop and make a judgment as to the strength of my holding after seeing the flop. If I received a favorable flop, I would be able to raise Mr. Fast Action’s wager and force any other opponent to call two bets cold, with a sizable risk of getting trapped between additional raises. So, I could protect my hand if the flop was favorable, or at least charge my opponents a high price to draw. And by flat-calling preflop, I could possibly get away from my hand cheaply if I didn’t like the flop.
But there is a price to be paid for making the trap-call play. One of the main reasons for raising preflop with vulnerable one-pair holdings is to reduce the number of opponents taking the flop, thereby increasing your probability of winning. Flat-calling would let everyone behind me see the flop for two bets. But against this field on tilt, would three-betting preflop cause them to fold? Since they had been accustomed to playing for multiple bets, and the preflop amount hadn’t seemed to induce any preflop folds so far, I thought not.

I didn’t want to three-bet and be called by a volume field who would read me for having a premium pair and therefore check-call the flop if it came clean for me. In a pot of that size, almost any live draw would be correct in calling one bet unless I flopped a set. And those were calls that I would want to prevent my opponents from making.

I flat-called Mr. Fast Action’s preflop raise, as did the button, both blinds, and the two early limpers. The flop came 9♠ 6♦ 4♣, which was very favorable for my hand, as there was no overcard or flush draw. The field checked to Mr. Fast Action, who fired in a wager. I raised, and was called by the big blind, one early limper, and Mr. Fast Action. The four of us took the turn, which was the 10♣. The field checked to me, I bet again, and they all called.

The river was the K♠. The field checked to Mr. Fast Action, who tossed in a bet. I reluctantly called, knowing that he could be bluffing, but thinking that I was unlikely to win. That said, the pot was laying me $960-$60. The other two players folded, and Mr. Fast Action showed me the K♣ 4♥; he had flopped bottom pair and made two pair on the river. I tossed my hand into the muck.

Yeah, I lost the pot anyway, but I was happy with how I played my hand, feeling that I had given myself the best opportunity to produce equity. This situation speaks to using your opponents’ tendencies to increase your equity by using a
nonstandard play. Had I not been sitting directly behind an opponent who almost certainly would bet the flop, and in front of opponents who wouldn’t respect my preflop raise, I would have played the hand differently and three-bet preflop. I had abandoned the preflop equity that I could have obtained by three-betting, in order to position myself to make the play to increase my odds of winning the pot. If I had three-bet and exposed the strength of my hand, I would have much more likely been playing a one-bet flop situation in a larger pot against more opponents, thus reducing my odds of winning the pot.

By keeping the pot small and creating the opportunity to raise Mr. Fast Action’s post-flop bet, I reduced the number of opponents and made their pot odds to draw inferior, both of which were favorable for my hand. While I did not win the pot, the upside of being able to eliminate some competition

and reduce my remaining opponents’ post-flop odds more than made up for the small amount of equity that I gave up by not three-betting preflop. Increasing your likelihood of winning a large pot with a vulnerable hand is often better than obtaining a small edge preflop.

Think about how your hand will play and make adjustments based on your reads. Do it accurately, and you’ll find the chips coming your way. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas real-estate broker/salesman in 1989. Should you wish to get any information about real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his office number is (702) 396-6575, and his e-mail address is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You also may find him on Facebook.