Hand 2 Hand Combat - Page Harris Builds the Pot for Value With Calculated Bet-Sizing Until the River Card Changes Everything

Event 2010 Fall Full Tilt Online Poker Series event No. 1

Buy-in: $200
Players in the Event: 4,500
First Place: $117,434
Finish: First

The villain raises to 110,000 from the cutoff. Page “Pageh656” Harris reraises to 285,303 from the big blind with the A♣ Q♦.

Craig Tapscott: You’re near the final-table bubble. What’s your read on the villain? And what’s your image been from his perspective?

Page Harris: My opponent has been pressuring the table. My image was fairly aggressive. I had not been getting out of line much, besides three-bet folding a few times and trying to open some good spots. Having played with him for a couple of hours, I was sure that his opening range consisted of any suited hand and almost any playable offsuit hand.

CT: When you look down at a pretty strong hand like A-Q, what options go through your mind moving forward?

PH: I knew that if I flat-called, I would keep the pot small and also keep a lot of the weak hands in, but I would not really know anything about his hand. I would be stuck with playing a guessing game out of position on most flops without control of the betting. I had been three-betting some, so a three-bet wouldn’t seem like a super strong hand. That would enable me to get action from many hands that I dominated. Due to his wide opening range, I decided to three-bet to a fairly small amount.

CT: Why did you choose that bet-sizing?

PH: I knew that he would call with a lot of weak hands. I am out of position, so it’s important not to overinflate the pot. He’s not going to fold better hands to me. So, I need to give him as much room as possible to overplay his weaker holdings. I believed that he would most likely four-bet his strongest hands, such as J-J to A-A, and A-K, with some air mixed in. That helps in playing post-flop, because I can discount the probability of running into premium pairs and A-K.

The villain calls.

Flop: Q♠ 10♦ 8♥ (pot: 631,606)

CT: How do you go about calculating the size of your continuation-bet to get the most value?

PH: It’s good to bet a size that seems like it’s one that I would make with both my strong hands and my bluffs. He probably believes that I would continuation-bet with almost all of my hands, so he doesn’t necessarily have to believe that I connected with the board.

Pageh656 bets 300,000.

CT: Are there any other reasons for your bet-sizing in this spot?

PH: This sizing sets up the size of the pot for the entire hand, since my future bets will be shaped by the size of the pot. Betting too big on the flop would make a lot of weak hands fold. The goal is to have the one-pair or straight-draw hands call, and enable me to build a pot. Many hands such as K-Q, Q-J, A-10, K-10, J-10, and 10-9 are possible holdings for him. And he can have A-J or K-J for a straight draw. These hands don’t have a ton of outs. I can win a big pot if I get my opponent to pay me off.

CT: What kind of reaction are you expecting from this type of aggressive opponent when you continuation-bet?

PH: It doesn’t make much sense for him to raise this flop with a wide range, so I would expect him to call with most holdings. He will float sometimes with weak hands, hoping to get me to fold on the turn or river if I show any weakness. Based on my read of his preflop calling range, I believe that A-A, K-K, and Q-Q are unlikely. And J-J, 10-10, 9-9, and 8-8 are discounted, because sometimes they might have four-bet, but 8-8 and 9-9 are fairly likely to have just flat-called. He could have flopped a set, but that’s only a few combos of hands out of a very wide range. Also, J-9 is in his range. I plan to value-bet most turn cards and see how my opponent reacts.

The villain calls.

Turn: 5♥ (pot: 1,231,606)

CT: So, how do you determine the turn bet-sizing, since that card is pretty much a brick?

PH: I would like to bet an amount that can be called by a lot of weak holdings, but also build a large pot, since I believe that my hand is currently the best. Shoving would be awkward, since it’s an oversized bet of about one-and-a-half times the pot size. While it would protect my hand, it also shuts out all of the worse hands that I need to extract chips from, and runs me headfirst into any hand he slow-played. In a tournament structure, you don’t get a ton of spots to accumulate large amounts of chips with relatively low risk, so if you can extract more value by playing your hand a bit differently, it’s a good thing to consider.

Pageh656 bets 600,000. The villain calls.

PH: Betting an amount like I did also leaves the possibility that I’m continuing a bluff with a double barrel. That is incentive for my opponent to pay me off with a bunch of weak hands.

CT: Can you further refine his hand range after the turn call? And what’s the plan for the river?

PH: I believe that he can still have almost all of the Broadway hands I accounted for preflop and post-flop, since they can still improve on this board. He will fold his total air most of the time. If he planned on making a move, he would need to make it now, since I can shut him out on the river by going all in. Once he calls, I believe that he has one pair with a straight draw or a straight draw with an overcard. I intend to shove most rivers, and expect to be called by worse hands.

River: K♣ (pot: 2,431,606)

PH: When the river card is a king, I am in a bit of shock.

CT: Why?

PH: I was hoping for a safe card so that I could continue my plan of getting value, but that card has an impact on a lot of things. If I shove, all of the weaker hands I was ahead of will possibly fold.

Pageh656 checks.

CT: What hands would fold?

PH: I can’t think of many hands I’m still ahead of that would not fold that river. If my opponent thought I might be bluffing, that river eliminated a lot of the hands he was putting me on. I also don’t believe that I would get any better hands than mine to fold. If he rivered a king with K-J, it would be a tough decision for him, but I believe that he still calls. It is possible that he rivered two pair, or a straight with A-J. He also would value-bet any set that he had slow-played. When I paused for thought, I could not figure out many hands that would take this line that I was ahead of. I could not put together many combinations of pure air that made it to the river like this. I believe that once I checked to him, he would check back weaker one-pair hands, since they had showdown value, such as Q-J, J-10, and so on. If I were bluffing, he would have no reason to try to make me fold, since he should be ahead, in his mind.

The villain moves all in for 1,286,841. Pageh656 folds. The villain wins the pot of 2,431,606.

PH: Since most of the hands I believed I was still ahead of would check behind, and I couldn’t put together enough of a bluff range for him, I decided to fold. I believed that I almost never could be ahead, so I had to make the laydown. The villain did tell me that he had K-10 once our final-table deal was done.

CT: Excellent fold, then. ♠

Page Harris, 21, is an economics major at the University of Central Florida. In June, he finished third, for $48,020, in the $240 no-limit hold’em Full Tilt Poker Sunday Brawl. He has more than $850,000 in career online-tournament cashes.