Adjusting to Your Opponent’s Range

The true value of a hand is how it fares against the range of hands that it is facing. A-Q is a strong starting hand, but if someone probably holds A-A or A-K, it has much less value. An 8-high flush draw might be getting the correct odds from the pot to improve, but the possibility of a higher flush draw being present might change your holding’s equity to negative value. Being able to read poker situations accurately enables you to fold hands with high negative equity that superficially appear to have good value. Of course, accurately assessing the range of hands that you are facing is a complicated art; even the best hand readers are usually limited to making well-educated guesses.

I sat down in a newly launched nine-handed $40-$80 limit hold’em game at Bellagio. It was playing rock-solid, because the players were not warmed up yet. A few beats needed to be dished out to open up the game. Time would take care of that issue.

A local pro opened with a raise with the A♥ 10♥ from second position. The remainder of the field folded to the small blind, an ex-Internet pro, who three-bet. Mr. Internet had played only one hand in the three laps that I had been there. I put him on a strong holding, and folded a marginal hand from the big blind. Mr. Local Pro called.

The flop came Q♠ 5♠ 3♦, a swing and a miss for Mr. Local Pro. Mr. Internet fired $40 forward, and was quickly called by Mr. Local Pro. While the pot was laying 8.5 on the call, a call was extraordinarily weak. The likely holdings of Mr. Internet required the extension of the requisite odds for Mr. Local Pro to be correct in calling to be far greater than the odds of just improving. It was highly probable that Mr. Local Pro would improve his hand, only to find himself in more trouble than he already was in. Mr. Internet was tight and knowledgeable enough regarding hand selection to hold a big hand when three-betting an up-front raise from a tight player when out of position. He was expected to be at the top of his range — A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, A-K, A-Q, and 10-10, none of which the A♥ 10♥ played well against.

What card was Mr. Local Pro hoping to catch? Yeah, he can win in some scenarios, but none he can be sure of. And the pot wasn’t laying him nearly the correct price to draw against Mr. Internet’s range of hands. Mr. Internet’s likely hands blocked most of the reasons for taking off a card. Most cards that improved Mr. Local Pro’s holding would just land him in more trouble with a second-best hand.

The turn card was the 2♠, giving Mr. Local Pro a gutshot draw, but putting three spades on the board. Mr. Internet fired $80, and Mr. Local Pro called. Once again, his plausible outs were severely limited. If Mr. Internet held the A♠ K♠, which was in his range, Mr. Local Pro would be drawing dead. If he held any spade, Mr. Local Pro’s outs would be reduced even more. If he held an ace, Mr. Local Pro’s straight draw would be drawing to a split. And there were other hands — A-Q with the A♠, Q-Q, and so on — that Mr. Internet might have that Mr. Local Pro wasn’t drawing well against. Yeah, Mr. Local Pro was getting $460-$80 on the call, and there were scenarios in which he could win, but against the range of Mr. Internet’s holdings, he was not getting anywhere close to an overlay.

The river brought the 10♦, giving Mr. Local Pro a pair. Mr. Internet checked, and Mr. Local Pro checked behind him. Mr. Internet turned over the A♠ K♣; Mr. Local Pro turned over his hand and was awarded the pot.

Yeah, Mr. Local Pro caught a great card and won the pot, but his play was terrible; any professional should definitely know better. In this situation, Mr. Local Pro wouldn’t have won if he had caught an ace, would have split if he had caught a non-spade 4, and won if he caught a non-spade 10, which he did! Additionally, he easily could have been up against wired aces with the A♠, or another hand against which he would have had even worse equity. That said, there are some scenarios in which he would have had better equity, such as when the ace and straight draw were good. But the blended equity of all of the combined possible scenarios was hugely negative for Mr. Local Pro.

When considering a call, think about the range of hands that your opponent might hold, and the price that the pot is laying you. Are all of the outs that you are counting assured of winning the pot? Or, are some of the outs that you are counting likely to improve an opponent’s hand to a better one than the one you are drawing to? If you make your hand, can it still lose? The more likely that the outs for your hand will just get you into trouble and cause you to lose more chips, the greater you need to extend your odds to draw. And the odds can change significantly when the outs you’re counting on end up being chip burners. So, adjust your odds appreciably.

Many players fail to read situations well, and have rule-of-thumb guidelines for calling that were developed by analyzing outs based strictly on their holdings and not on the likely holdings of their opponents. Reading how hands play in varying scenarios and against specific hand ranges is a significant factor in any poker game. Know your opponents and their ranges, and adjust based on that information. You’ll find yourself not making the second-best hand nearly as often.

Of course, instead, you can just tell bad-beat stories! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas real-estate broker/salesman in 1989. Should you wish to get any information about real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his office number is (702) 396-6575, and his e-mail address is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You also may find him on Facebook.