Ventures With J-10 Suited

After the evening sessions of bridge at the Palmetto Florida Regional Tournament (near Sarasota), dozens of bridge players visited the Hard Rock Casino near Tampa. I discovered one of the liveliest games on our planet there — $5-$10 no-limit hold’em with a mandatory $20 straddle.

My money-management strategy (everyone should have one) for that wild game was to have enough cash for four $500 buy-ins. My first buy-in alarmingly disappeared after about 20 minutes of play, when my pocket kings went down in flames. With about $400 in chips in front of me, I picked up the J♦ 10♦ in the big blind. A rather active player on my left made it $50 to go.

I have heard that in the early days of hold’em, many experts considered J-10 suited one of the best hold’em starting hands. I have always thought of suited connectors as “suck hands” in no-limit, but they should be played occasionally. So, I called in four-way action.

A nice flop hit the table — Q♦ 9♠ 3♦. So, I had nine flush cards and six straight cards. I checked to the preflop raiser on my left to see what he would do. He shoveled $125 into the pot. The other players folded around to me. He had close to $1,000 in front of him, and I knew from his past performances that if I called now, he would probably bet more than my remaining $200-plus in chips on the next round. And, I would want to call.

So, I dramatically said, “All in,” and pushed in my stack — his $125 plus about $230 more. He gave me a dirty look and then tossed his hand away. Although I was quite happy that he folded, with 15 outs and two cards to come, I was actually a slight favorite (about 55 percent) to hit a straight or flush. And I also might have won with a lesser hand.

About an hour later, with about $1,200 in chips in front of me, I picked up the J♥ 10♥ in the small blind. There were four limpers around to me, and I called the additional $15. The big blind also called, but the forced straddler, who had been playing almost every hand, raised $107, going all in. Surprisingly, the four limpers all folded around to me. And to my left, I could see that the big blind was holding his two cards as if he was about to toss them.

With about $250 in the pot, if the raiser did not have a high pocket pair, I liked my odds. So, I made the speculative call. We both showed our cards; he had pocket eights. A 10 appeared on the flop, and I managed to win.

According to Mike Caro’s Poker Probe, it was roughly a coin toss. My J-10 suited would win about 49.8 percent of the time against pocket eights, but would be a slight favorite against all lower pocket pairs. If he had two overcards — for example, A-Q — I would win only about 40 percent of the time. But note that even a 40 percent win rate would make my $107 a good investment. If I put up the $107 10 times, and won four times (4 x $247) and lost six times (6 x $107), my average win would be about $34.

Even in the worst-case scenario — for example, against pocket kings, where J-10 suited would win only about 20 percent of the time — my average loss would be about $36. So, since I was not playing against an opponent who would raise preflop only with a high pocket pair, I had made a good investment.

We all know that you don’t have to be a math major to win at poker, but in no-limit hold’em, there oftentimes are situations in which it really helps to have some knowledge of the actual odds. ♠

Formerly a career lawyer with the U.S. Department of Justice, Mike Cappelletti has written numerous books on poker and bridge, and is considered to be one of the leading authorities on Omaha. Mike has also represented the U.S. in international bridge competition, and he and his wife were featured in a four-page Couples Section in People magazine. His books include Cappelletti on Omaha, Poker at the Millennium (with Mike Caro), and Omaha High Low Poker.