Betting The Turn For Value

“Why did I make that bet?” It’s something you should ask yourself every time you put your chips in the middle. “What am I trying to accomplish?” You may find that it’s sometimes a difficult question to answer.

It shouldn’t be. There are only three reasons to bet in no-limit hold’em.

1. To get worse hands to call.
2. To get better hands to fold.
3. To get worse hands to fold.

Reason 3 is almost a side case. It’s the reason for betting a hand like 55 on a J72 rainbow flop. It’s a reason to make a small bet early in a hand, and usually that’s about it.

The first two reasons are the more important ones. Reason 2 obviously describes a bluff. We’re going to talk about Reason 1 in this article.

To get worse hands to call.

It’s the most important reason to bet in no-limit hold’em. It’s the goal of the game. You want players to call your bets with worse hands. Simple, right?
The trick is to find the situations where enough worse hands will call you to make your bet profitable. To do that effectively, you have to use some hand reading.

1. Price The Draws In Or Out?

You have a made hand on the turn. There are two types of worse hands: made hands and draws. The great thing about the turn is that nearly every drawing hand is an underdog to a decent made hand. In other words, any draw, no matter how strong, nearly always counts as a “worse hand” on the turn. (This is not so on the flop.)

Therefore, whenever you bet the turn, you usually want draws to call. My guess is that statement strikes many of you as wrong. “I bet to get the draws out!” you exclaim.”I sure as heck don’t want them calling and drawing out on me!”

Nope. You want them calling. Or at least you should. Because if you’re betting so much on the turn that the draws fold, then you’re also pricing out many of the weaker made hands. With no draws and no weaker made hands to call, you’re getting action only from better hands. Which means you’re making losing bets. If trying to get draws out is how you think about the turn, then you have it all wrong, and you should keep reading.

2. Using Hand Reading To Make Turn Value Bets

The goal of a value bet on the turn is to get more worse hands than better hands to call you. It’s true that worse hands with few outs (generally weaker made hands) are preferred to worse hands with more outs (draws). But you don’t get to choose the hands that call. So you should focus on getting worse hands to call and not be too picky about it.

It’s a $2-$5 game with $800 stacks. You open-raise to $20 with Q Q. Two loose players call, and the big blind calls. There’s $82 in the pot with $780 behind.

The flop comes 10 7 5. The big blind checks, and you bet $60 with your overpair. One player folds, the next calls, and the big blind folds. There’s $202 in the pot and $720 behind.

The turn is the K. Ugh, an overcard. It’s your turn. What do you do?

Let’s think about the sorts of hands that a loose player might have called with on the flop.

He could have a 10. He could have an unimproved pocket pair maybe sixes or higher. He could have a 7 or 5. He could have straight draws around the T and 7 or around the 7 and 5 ( J-9, 9-8, 8-6, 6-4, and so forth). He could have a flush draw. He could also have a set or two pair.

Overall he could have called the flop with far more worse hands than better hands. How has that changed on the turn?

He’s now ahead if he called with K-T, K-7 suited, or K-5 suited (we’ll give him credit for folding K-7 and K-5 offsuit preflop). He’s also ahead now if he called with a king-high spade draw. It’s possible he called the flop with a hand like K-Q, but it’s a big bet to call with just overcards, even for a fairly loose player.

So should you bet or check? Ask yourself, “Will more worse hands call than better ones?” Sure, he could have K-T, but he’s more likely to have A-T, Q-T, or J-T, and a loose player will probably call the turn with those hands. Sure he could have king-high spades, but there are more spade draws out that don’t contain the K. Sure he could have K-Q, but due to card removal he’s more likely to have A-J, and he might now call again on the turn with that hand.

He could have a flopped set that he slowplayed, but he might have raised the flop with that hand. He could have a flopped two pair, but again he might have raised the flop, and you have eight outs to beat a small two pair.

You are well ahead of all of the straight draws around the T, 7, and 5 he could call the turn with.

Add in the fact that a loose player might make a silly turn call with a hopeless hand like sixes or 6-5, and, despite the turn overcard, there are still many more worse hands that can call than better ones. It’s time for a value bet.

There’s $202 in the pot and $720 behind. How much should you bet?

Remember, you want the draws to call. You’re relying on hands like J-T and 9-8 and A-J to call to make the bet profitable. If these hands fold, then you’ll be getting action mostly from hands that beat you. You should bet an amount these hands will call.

That pretty much rules out an all-in bet. It probably rules out a pot-sized bet also, since most players would at least think twice about calling $200 with second pair or just a straight draw. Obviously the perfect size is player-dependent, but somewhere between $100 and $150 might be appropriate.

Final Thoughts

Think before you bet. There are only three reasons to bet, and all of your bets should pass the smell test for at least one of these reasons.

Betting to get worse hands to call is the most important reason to bet. It’s the point of the game. Yet many players are so scared of losing to a drawing hand that they intentionally make bets designed to force these hands to fold. In the process, however, they ensure that they get action only from better hands, and therefore that their bets are far less profitable.

On the turn, made hands have a big edge over drawing hands. Use your hand reading skills and look for turn value bets any time you think many drawing hands could call you.

You’ll get stung sometimes, but over the long run you’ll be pleased with the results.

Ed’s brand new book, Reading Hands At No-Limit Hold’em, is available immediately for purchase at notedpokerauthority.com. Find him on Facebook at facebook.com/edmillerauthor and on Twitter @EdMillerPoker.