Flopping the Nuts!

I’ve said it a million times before! And I’m going to say it to you again. The recurring sum of volume bet times edge will equal expectation. Over time, as luck becomes neutralized, expectation will equal your earn, positive or negative. Understanding that concept is fundamental to playing poker well.

Most poker players analyze their play based on the actual dollar amounts. They ponder and talk endlessly about winning an extra bet or losing an extra bet, even though those thoughts are conceptually incorrect. Knowledgeable gamblers think about gambling situations by quantifying the value of their bets in terms of the expectation of those wagers. And while it may appear to you that you made or lost a bet, you really didn’t. What you won or lost was the expectation on that wager. Obviously, bets your opponent makes against you when he was drawing slim or dead have more value than bets he makes when the odds for him to call are correct. Understanding this concept and adapting your game to it will change your poker thought process immensely. And most importantly, it will make your decisions better.

I was playing $20-$40 limit hold’em at the Bellagio, waiting for my $40-$80 seat to open. I opened the pot with a raise from middle position with the 10 10 folding everyone to Chad in the big blind, who three-bet me. I pondered his hand range. Chad’s a solid player, respects my raises and wouldn’t three-bet me without a big mitt. My tens likely faced a bigger pair, and even if they didn’t, I was almost certainly playing against two overcards, probably A-K. Against an overpair, I was about a 4-1 dog, not a positive equity situation. Against two overcards I would be a small favorite, have the advantage of position and should be able to play the hand with positive expectation. But the bad news was that Chad was more likely to have an overpair than A-K.

All that said, it was nothing a good flop couldn’t fix, and the flop hit nothing but net, the 10 10 7 awarding me four tens. Chad fired a wager. Woohoo, I’d flopped the total nuts, a hard hand to lose no matter what came. Since any bet from Chad had almost 100% value for me, I wanted to make sure I acquired as many bets from him as possible. I thought about how he thought, and how I could utilize his thinking into maximizing my profit. Chad was solid, reads hands well and acts on his reads, all signs of a confident, quality poker player. But all poker players can be had some of the time, and this was going to be one of Chad’s times

I thought that Chad would assume I would slow-play if I held a ten (which I often would) and if I raised he would read me for a medium pair. If I got Chad to think I had a medium pair, he would impart greater action with a large pair. I raised, unsure if he held a big wire or big ace and unsure of what his reaction would be. I still thought raising was the best option.

He hit me back. This time I flat called. If I four-bet, I thought Chad would read me for a ten, maybe not pay me off, but definitely slow down his betting. I didn’t want any of that to happen.

The turn came the 4. Chad fired again and for the exact same reasons that led to my flop call, I flat called the turn also. I wanted to make sure he wouldn’t make a big laydown, a laydown Chad was perfectly capable of making.

The river came the J. Chad fired one more and this time I hit it. I knew he would think I had hit a set of jacks on the turn, but by now he was more pot committed and the price the pot was laying him to pay off was greater than if he faced the raise on the turn. He thought long and hard, but reluctantly paid me off, stating “jacks are good” as he tossed in the wager.

“That’s good too” he cordially declared after I turned over my hand.

As for Chad, well, things didn’t get any better. He turned right around and picked up two aces the very hand. Heads-up on the turn with a woman who was all in holding kings, another one came on the river to crack his aces back to back. Not a very lucky set of circumstances for Chad. That said, Chad showed his strength of character, didn’t let himself get emotional, nor did he steam off a chip. Internal qualities like that are what make champions out of people.

If I may say so, I thought I played the hand great. I understood that it was vital to maximize my earn, since my opponent was drawing virtually dead on the flop and stone dead on the turn. I read my opponent well and squeezed every bet I possibly could out of him.

In this situation, I didn’t slow-play a hand where conventional wisdom would dictate a slow-play. In playing it non-conventionally, based on my opponents hand reading abilities and play tendencies, I acquired additional high-value bets, bets that add up significant expectation over time. It is important when thinking about how to play your hand to analyze the value of the bets. The conventional wisdom is to make players pay to draw, but if they are drawing correctly or even close to correctly, you are frequently just increasing your variance and sometimes eliminating a potential play in future betting rounds to either acquire bets in which your edge factor is much stronger or make a play which increases your propensity to win.

So, when reading your opponents range, think about how he will play different portions of that range and what edges you can create. If your edge is high, generally try to maximize your bet acquisitions. But include how the hand will play in the future and incorporate the edge on those future bets into your decisions. If you think your hand is marginal against your opponents range think more about if you can play it creatively to maximize your betting edges on a later street or play it in a manner in which you can increase the percentage chance in which your hand will prevail.

And always keep in mind that the recurring sum of the volume bet times edge will equal expectation which over time will equal earn. Because, If you don’t get it… I’ll have to say it a million times again…And neither of us wants that. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about real estate matters, including purchase, sale or mortgage, his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook.