Avoiding River Problems

I recently received an email from one of my students on a subject that is dear to my heart. I have always been a big advocate of taking decisive action on the turn if the pot is already quite large. (This need is even more important if you are out of position, when making too small a turn bet leaves you with the inability to know if your opponent is drawing or has a made hand when acting first.) Here is his email and my reply.

“Bob, this was a hand from the 2011 Legends of Poker No-Limit Hold’em Main Event. The blinds were at 300-600 with an ante of 75. There were still about four hundred players left, with the average stack now about 50,000. I was in middle position with a stack of about 35,000. My opponent was an aggressive player, but not a maniac. His stack was about 60,000. He open-raised from early position (under the gun (UTG) plus one) for 1,300 and I called with A-K offsuit from middle position. To my surprise, there were three additional callers behind me. The pot was 8,475. The flop came A Q 6. The preflop raiser bet 3,500 into the field. What to do?”

“I called and the other callers all folded. The pot was now 15,475. The turn was the 7. My opponent now checked. What should I do? I bet 7000 and my opponent called. The river card was the 4. The pot had grown to 29,475. My opponent now put me all in. My remaining stack was 23,200 and the pot with the opponent’s bet was 52,675. I was getting pot odds of about 2.3 to 1. What to do? I called and the villain showed me that he raised from early position with J 8, so he had made a flush at the river to bust me. Do you have any additional comments about playing A-K in general or about this hand in particular? When villain opened from UTG+1, I tentatively put him on range of A-K, A-Q, or aces through nines. Yes, his two big cards could be hearts but the odds were 15 to 1 that the big cards were not specifically hearts. If he had a pair, he could not have two hearts. I didn’t even consider that he had raised with suited connectors. My final thought is that if I had shoved on the turn, my opponent probably would have folded. However, I didn’t consider the possibility that my opponent was on a flush draw. In general, I should have bet aggressively on the flop, since my hand had little chance of improving. When he put me all in at the river, I looked at what was left of my stack and decided to call.”

Here was my reply: “I agree with your preflop call and your flop call. (I do not like to commit a big portion of my stack on top pair with so many players behind me.) Your too small turn bet was a major mistake. Your opponent does not know you have a made hand at the point he checked the turn. He is unlikely to check a bigger made hand than yours, because for all he knows, he is giving you a chance to draw out, as there is no guarantee that you will bet. He looks to have either a weaker ace or a draw. I would bet all my money on the turn, since it is hard for me to back off if I bet the full pot size of 15K when I have only 30K left. You must protect your hand and also avoid a river problem. One of the most important parts of my general no-limit hold’em philosophy is to take decisive action on the turn when there is a big pot. This is a great example of a hand where you should apply this philosophy.”

I think this hand is highly instructive in a number of ways.

First, even when you have position on your opponent, failing to put the hammer down on the turn can prove to be a mistake. My client had a big problem when his opponent moved him all in at the river. Had he moved all in himself on the turn, he might have won a pot that he eventually lost. Even if he got called, he would have doubled up on the majority of river cards. Surely it is right to bet all your money with the best of it if you are going to go broke anyway when your opponent makes his hand, as opposed to losing that large last bet when the opponent busts out on his draw.

Second, note that I liked my client’s play of just calling on the flop, even though he had a strong hand. In multi-handed pots, you try to avoid committing big bucks on a good but not great hand. A-K is a nice hand when you flop top pair, but one pair does not beat aces up or a set. Another reason to be cautious on the flop is that an opponent may play a draw very aggressively when there are two cards to come. If you raise and are reraised while holding big slick, this is a bad spot to play for all your money. Nearly all the time, when your opponent has a made hand, you are tied or beaten. If your opponent is drawing, he usually will have more than one way to win, as by having both a straight draw and flush draw, or a pair and flush draw. Even if you guess right and call a reraise when the opponent has a draw, you still are going to lose nearly half the time.
Third, you have to appreciate how much the odds change when a player on a draw is defanged somewhat by not having money left to bet after sucking out on the river.

The bottom line is your poker play may be incorrect even if you hold the best hand and charge the opponent more than he should pay, according to the pot odds he is getting. The opponent may be making a correct call if he has leverage left in river betting. He may get his hand paid off when he hits his draw, or he may bluff you out when he misses his draw. Moreover, if you bet only a little more than what would be profitable for the opponent to call, he cannot make a big mistake. Give your opponent a chance to make a big mistake by betting a bundle!

On the hand discussed earlier in this article, my client made a huge mistake by betting only about half the pot on the turn, as opposed to simply moving all in for twice the pot size. No-limit hold’em requires a no-limit mentality to be a winner. If you have a big gun (the all-in bet), be willing to use it. The river betting round is easier to play when no opponents are left! ♠

Bob Ciaffone has authored four poker books, Middle Limit Holdem Poker, Pot-limit and No-limit Poker, Improve Your Poker, and Omaha Poker. All can be ordered (autographed to you) from Bob by e-mail: [email protected]. Free U.S. shipping to Card Player readers. Ciaffone is available for poker lessons at a reasonable rate. His website is www.pokercoach.us, where you can get his rulebook, Robert’s Rules of Poker, for free. Bob also has a website called www.fairlawsonpoker.org.