Preparing For Online Poker 2.0

Online poker is returning to the United States. In 2011, Nevada passed a statute permitting the Nevada Gaming Commission to regulate online poker. The NGC has since drafted regulations and, as of the time of this writing, is accepting applications for online poker licenses. Online poker will be coming to Nevada sometime in 2012.

Other states are following suit. And, importantly, the Department of Justice has recently announced that they no longer consider the Interstate Wire Act of 1961 to apply to online poker. This admission that online poker doesn’t violate federal law clears the road for legal and regulated online poker in many (though likely not all) states.

To say I’m excited would be an understatement. I can’t help but think back to the Paradise and Party Poker days of the first half of the last decade when the biggest games on these sites were populated by many clueless players. Clueless opponents in big games played at online speeds was, well, it was really good.

Then came the decline. Many people blame the passage of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act in 2006 for the decline in the quality of the online games, but truly that decline was inevitable with or without government interference. For a good poker player, money rained from the heavens in 2004 and 2005. Money never rains from the heavens for long. Nature has a way of correcting these little cosmic oversights.

But when online poker 2.0 gets going, I think game conditions will be quite nice. I’m sure the sites will be heavily marketed, and people will respond. Many of those who gave online poker up five years ago will return.

It ain’t gonna be what it used to be. Players are better now. Online pros are a lot savvier today than they were seven years ago. Even in live games in Las Vegas, the average small stakes no-limit players are considerably better than they were in 2005. But I, for one, would be delighted to play against today’s live players in heads-up and 6-max games and at online speeds.

So I’m preparing for online poker 2.0. When it comes out I think it’s going to be very lucrative. Specifically, here are the skills I think will get the money in these early games. If you want to take advantage of the games when they arrive, this is what I’d focus on.

Thin Value Betting

The biggest mistake amateur no-limit players make is that they call too much. Particularly for big bets on the turn and river, these players are worried about getting bluffed, they don’t know where they are in hands, so they call.

On the flipside, too many small stakes players fail to bet the river for value. In $1-$2, for instance, many regulars check down hands like top pair and overpairs on the river while their opponents would have been willing to pay off $30 to $50 bets.

If you want to win tons of money at the new online poker, you’re going to have to bet the river.

Look specifically for hands where your opponent may have been drawing at something and missed, but is left with one pair. For instance, say you’re playing in a brand new online poker game against some weaker players. You have Q-Q and raise preflop. Two players call.

The flop comes 9-7-5 with two of a suit. Your opponents check, you bet, and one player calls.

The turn is an offsuit deuce. Your opponent checks. You bet, your opponent calls.

The river is an offsuit ten. Your opponent checks.

This is a situation many players would check down. They’d figure that they’ve made it obvious they have an overpair, and they’ll get called only by two pair or better.

But against a weak player, you should definitely bet for value. Why?

What sort of hand has this player been calling with? He could have a flopped pair, a straight draw, or a flush draw. The key is that many of the straight draw hands now have a pair on the river. Hands like 9-8, 8-7, 8-8, 6-6, 6-5, T-8, and so forth have all missed a straight but made a pair. Players tend to be suspicious, even when they shouldn’t be. You will get called. And more often than not, when you get called, you will win.

On this river, I’d certainly consider betting for value with any hand that can beat T-8. Against some players I might bet something as weak as Q-9.

Stack-To-Pot Ratios and Getting Stacks In

In our 2007 book, Professional No-Limit Hold’em: Volume 1, my co-authors and I presented the concept of the stack-to-pot ratio, or SPR. The stack-to-pot ratio is simply defined. It’s the ratio of the effective remaining stack sizes to the pot size when taken on the flop. For instanced, say you’re playing $1-$3 with $300 stacks. Someone raises to $15, and two players call. The pot is $49 (including the blind money), and the remaining stacks are $285. Thus, the SPR is $285/$49 = 5.8.

An SPR of 4 is a bit of a turning point. This SPR leaves two pot-sized bets remaining, or a pot-sized bet and a pot-sized raise. For instance, say there’s $100 in the pot and $400 behind. A $100 bet and call makes the pot $300 with $300 behind.

When the SPR is 4, sometimes you want to get all-in with top pair or an overpair, and sometimes you don’t. Whether you do or you don’t depends on the board and your opponents’ tendencies. If you’re against a tight player who doesn’t bluff a whole lot, it’s more often than not a mistake to get all-in holding one pair with an SPR 4 or higher.

But against a weak online player, I’d be much more likely to just get it in with an SPR of 4 and a very strong pair. Weak online players often don’t understand hand values and will stick the money in with any top pair (or even worse).

For instance, say I’m playing online $1-$2 with $90 stacks. (weak players often buy-in for around 50 big blinds). I raise to $10 preflop with AQ, and a weak player calls from the big blind. There’s $21 in the pot and $80 behind, creating an SPR of 4.

The flop comes 975. He checks, and I check.

The turn is the A. He checks, and I bet $15. He check-raises all-in.
Against tight players I’d often fold in this situation. My hand looks like a big ace, and that’s in fact what I have. To make the check-raise I’d expect many tight players usually to have my hand beaten.

But against a weak online player, I’d tend to make this call. These guys can show up after this action with hands like A-T, A-8, 9-8, and so on. This is the “clicking buttons” effect. When my opponent seems not to be thinking clearly and instead is just clicking buttons, for a given SPR I’m going to be more likely to stack off with any decent hand.

Ed’s brand new book, Reading Hands At No-Limit Hold’em, is available immediately for purchase at notedpokerauthority.com. Find him on Facebook at facebook.com/edmillerauthor and on Twitter @EdMillerPoker.