The Worst Reason To Raise

One of my students brought me a hand recently. He was playing $1-$2 in Las Vegas with $300 stacks. He had J J first to act, and he raised to $6. Three players called behind, and the blinds folded.

The flop came 9 7 4. My student checked, and the next player bet $15 into the $27 pot. The other two players folded, and my student check-raised to $40.

I asked him, “Why did you play the flop like that?” He answered that he wanted his opponent to fold. Oh, no, I thought.

This, dear readers, is the worst reason to raise.

That’s not quite fair. When you’re bluffing, you want your opponents to fold. Bluffing is great, so wanting people to fold can’t be all bad.

But my student obviously wasn’t bluffing. To hammer that point home, I asked, “What better hands do you expect to fold to your raise? Are pocket queens folding?” No, he said. No better hands will fold. “So you aren’t bluffing, correct?” Correct.

To see why this is the worst reason to raise, let me propose a different sort of bet to you. Say I walked up to you and said, “I will bet you $10 at even money that the shirt you’re wearing right now is made of polyester.” How would you react? You’d probably check the tag to see what your shirt is made of. (Bonus points if you know without looking.) If the tag said polyester, you’d take my bet and collect $10. If the tag said something else, you’d politely refuse the bet and ask if I had any other offers.

I’ve made a pretty dumb proposal. The only way anyone is going to give me action is if they are already certain they are going to win. I’ve proposed a bet I will literally never win.

When you make a raise in a poker hand, you are also proposing a bet. You’re saying, “I’ll bet you $25 that I’m going to win this hand. Take it or leave it.” If your opponent takes it only when you’re behind and leaves it whenever you are ahead, you’ve usually made a pretty dumb bet.

Yet my student was saying this was precisely what he was trying to do. Sure, he conceded, anyone with a better hand would take him up on the bet. He was just hoping that every time he was ahead, his opponent would walk away.

Huh?

Poker is not a simple game, so of course there are complicating factors. The money already in the pot, for instance, is the major complicating factor. When your opponent rejects your bet at poker, you get the pot. The thing is, you likely would have won the pot anyway. If your opponent is folding and you have a good hand like an overpair, you’re probably winning the pot 75-90 percent of the time even if you let your opponent see both the turn and the river.

So getting your opponent to fold doesn’t win you the pot. It just spares you from occasionally getting drawn out on.

Let’s look at the pros and cons of putting in a raise with a good hand with the purpose of “getting your opponent to fold”:

Pros:

• Protects you from getting outdrawn by some set of hands roughly 20 percent of the time.
  Cons:

• Requires making what is otherwise a very dumb bet proposal, one that you’ll get action on only if you’re losing.

• Prevents your folding opponents from making even dumber bets against you later in the hand when they don’t draw out and you still have the best hand.

• Sets you up to make huge mistakes in a big pot if your opponent calls your raise.
• Often makes your hand very easy to read to a good player.

In most situations, the idea of raising a good hand to “get them to fold” is a real stinker. It just gives up way too much for the relatively small benefits.

So why do people do it? It’s a simple answer. Fear. The possibility of getting outdrawn is so scary, we feel like we have to do everything we can to prevent it. This often turns into overbetting hands and losing value.

Folks, when you play no-limit hold’em, your money is at risk. Winning and losing is the name of the game. Don’t let a fear of the longshots control you.

So if you aren’t supposed to raise a hand like an overpair to get people to fold, how should you play it?

Play in whatever way will maximize the mistakes your opponents can make. When you have an overpair, the biggest mistakes your opponents can make is to call bets with weaker pairs and draws. Weaker pairs, in particular, are generally making a big mistake calling your bets, since you are a huge favorite against these hands.

So how would I think about playing J-J on a 9-7-4 flop with two diamonds? I want to play in a way that extracts the most value possible from someone holding a hand like A-9, T-T, 9-8, or 8-8. I’m way ahead of these hands. I want them to stay in the pot, not to fold. I want them to pay off as many bets as possible. I’m going to make bets – and size these bets – so that I expect opponents with weaker pairs to call.

I also want flush draws to call, particularly on the turn when there’s only one card left. On the turn, a flush draw is 4-to-1 against to hit. If I can get my opponent to pay a half-pot bet to see the river, my edge on this bet is huge (this is particularly true if my opponent is predictable enough that I don’t feel compelled to pay off on the river if the flush gets there).

Let’s be honest. How often do you catch a good hand and bet or raise to try to take the pot down? If you’re like most players, you think this way quite a bit.

Stop. It’s the worst reason to bet or raise. Instead, think, “how can I get a weaker pair to call?” If you successfully fix your thought process, you’ll find yourself making much more on your good hands (and, yes, occasionally getting drawn out on. It’s part of the deal).

Let’s go back to the original hand. My student has J-J on a 9-7-4 flop with two diamonds. He checks, a player bets $15 into $24, and my student raises to $40. The irony of all this is that I like his raise just fine. (I would have simply bet the flop, but given his check, I like the raise). It’s just his reasoning that was bunk. I like the raise specifically because lots of worse hands – tens, nines, diamonds, straight draws, and so forth – will call. My student raised thinking he would get folds, but in fact his bet is going to get action from all the right hands. ♠

Ed’s brand new book, Reading Hands At No-Limit Hold’em, is available immediately for purchase at notedpokerauthority.com. Find him on Facebook at facebook.com/edmillerauthor and on Twitter @EdMillerPoker.