Playing Big Hands

Flopping a set gets the adrenaline running in a poker player, especially when it is top set. This is the hand you have been hoping for. A set usually wins the pot, and it is often a biggie. Yet sets get cracked a fair amount of the time. Playing a set correctly is a worthwhile poker skill, so let’s discuss set philosophy. Here is a hand played by a client of mine that showed how dangerous slowplaying can be when holding a good hand.

Client: I flopped top set on this hand and lost all my chips. Here’s how it happened.
The game was a $5-$10 blinds no-limit hold’em with a $700 minimum buy-in. I had recently bought into the game and still had nearly all of my original $700 in chips. I picked up pocket nines on the button. A middle position player open-raised to $35 and a player in front of me called, so I called. The pot size was $120 when the flop of 9-6-4 rainbow was dealt, giving me top set. The original raiser checked and the next player bet $35. If I raise the flop bet, I may win a small pot. Instead, I got greedy and just called, and lost $700. I have been burned several times last year in the same situation. I was frustrated the entire session being card dead. Should I have raised the flop bet with a board like this? Do you have a policy on when to raise on the flop?

Bob: Naturally, you were unlucky on this hand, because your opponent hit an eight-out straight-draw and you failed to fill up. However, your flop smooth-call was bad poker. Look at this board. You have the nuts, an unbeatable hand at this point. However, what card can come on the turn where you will be able to make this statement again? Every card bigger than a nine could leave you with a one-outer, as an overpair could pick off a set with the turn card. But every card lower than a nine could make a straight. The only card in the whole deck that will still leave you with the nuts is the case nine. The time to pull the trigger is right now, when you are willing to put all your money in because you have the nuts. You should raise while the situation is clear. The situation is also clear if you are fortunate to catch an opponent with a set of sixes. He will most likely play you for a hand that he can beat, rather than the one hand which he cannot beat. Most players will also go broke if they have flopped a set of fours. If the opponent has a straight draw, your raise may or may not be called. However, if the opponent does call, he at least is making a commitment where he has way the worst of it. If he reraises on a draw, he will be pot committed, and you will be about a 3-to-1 favorite. I do not claim that raising on the flop will prevent a disaster, but it is clearly the proper play to make money if your hand holds up, or to break an opponent that has flopped more than one pair. The raise will quite likely prevent your opponent from beating you on the river card if he has a straight draw, as a bet of $300 on the turn figures to blow him out of the pot. So whatever the reason was for your decision to smooth-call, it was incorrect, so do some self-examination and use this experience to learn.

Perhaps the most important reason to make a big move on the flop is to avoid losing your market. An uncluttered flop is a good place to pull the trigger and raise holding a big hand. On most flops, you will be representing or have either a good made hand or a draw, so a weaker made hand like a small set or two-pair will not have to fear a flush or a straight, so is less likely to fold than if you wait until the turn to make your move. Also, you will feel braver (and be more successful) holding the nuts rather than simply a strong hand.

This hand illustrates one of the most destructive philosophies in poker; the idea that a good hand should bet smaller than usual amounts to offer the opponent attractive enough odds to keep him involved. Here are some of my objections to this line of thinking.

(1) You will be easier to read if you vary your bet size according to the strength of your hand. Your bet size should be situational rather than dependent on the strength of your hand. The opponent’s decision about whether to play does not depend just on the amount needed to call or the pot size. It is also shaped by what the opponent thinks you have. In certain circumstances, it is easy to picture the opponent being more willing to call a larger bet than a smaller one.

(2) You are subject to a big loss if you get a good hand cracked, so it is important to extract a large number of chips for the privilege of drawing to a better hand. Often, the opponent is not going to lose any additional money when he misses a draw, but you will lose the Ponderosa if he gets a lucky catch. The only way you can win any more money may be to have him make his draw on the turn and then redraw at the river. The bottom line is, if you give the opponent a bargain basement price on improving, it is possible that even with the nuts and having it hold up most of the time, you can actually have a worse gambling situation than your opponent!

(3) You do not make as much money with small bets that get called as you do with large bets that get called. Making poor wages when you have the best of it is not going to overcome what you lose when having the worst of it. Keep betting decent-size wagers and you will have a good situation. If the opponent folds, you win. If the opponent calls, you earn enough money to overcome the occasions where he draws out on you.

I think my client’s reluctance to raise might have been affected by the rarity of his making this particular play (with or without a good hand), which opponents will seldom see because getting a good hand is harder than some people make it look. A flop raise is a very effective and intimidating move. The remaining chips are usually plentiful and the raise amount is not so much compared to stack size, yet the implied odds with two more betting rounds is clearly a bundle of chips, usually your whole stack. They say familiarity breeds contempt. That saying applies here, because liberal use of the flop raise will not only allow you to win pots without a fight, but improve your chance of doubling through an opponent who has a moderately decent hand and a suspicious mind. ♠

Bob Ciaffone has authored four poker books, Middle Limit Holdem Poker, Pot-limit and No-limit Poker, Improve Your Poker, and Omaha Poker. All can be ordered (autographed to you) from Bob by e-mail: [email protected]. Free U.S. shipping to Card Player readers. Ciaffone is available for poker lessons at a reasonable rate. His website is www.pokercoach.us, where you can get his rulebook, Robert’s Rules of Poker, for free. Bob also has a website called www.fairlawsonpoker.org.