I Lost the Pot, But I Learned Something!

Much is written about attaining small edges in hand versus hand poker situations. But much greater equity can be found in reading your opponents’, hand ranges and making plays based on those effective reads. Great players acquire much of their edge through this technique. It’s a major reason why when great players play in games where there is a great deal of parity in hand selection and basic strategy knowledge that they will still create a substantial edge.

It was a tougher than average Tuesday afternoon $40-$80 limit hold’em game at Bellagio. A tight-passive opponent limped up front and was called by Danny, a solid, deep-thinking, well playing local pro. A tourist immediately behind Danny called, and it was folded to me in the small blind. Holding the A 6, I tossed in the extra $20. Mark Gregorich, an extremely tough local pro, knuckled in the big blind behind me, and we took the flop five-handed for $40 each, $200 in the pot.

The dealer flopped the A 3 3. With the pot being small, and my hand not very vulnerable to free cards, I chose to check and see how the situation played out. By checking, I could make a better determination of the value of my hand due the greater level of information I could employ in my deliberation once all my opponents had acted. Checking would also induce my opponents to bluff and increase my propensity to pick up action on later streets.

It checked around to Mr. Tourist in last position, who fired. Thinking I would get better action from Mr. Tourist if he held a lesser hand and lose less equity should he possess a better hand, I flat called. To my alarm Mark check-raised immediately behind me. The opener folded, and Danny called the $80 cold. The bettor tossed his hand away, obviously on a bluff. It was $40 to me.

What to do? I recognized that Mark and Danny are deep-thinking, tough opponents. Mark knew I held an ace or better when he check-raised. Danny knew Mark knew I held an ace when he called the raise cold. All of us knew there are only four aces in the deck. Were they all accounted for or did someone hold a three? As a rule, Danny’s hand range would contain more aces than threes. But the fact that he called the raise from Mark who was in the big blind and whose hand could easily contain a three made a three a more likely holding from Danny. Even in the unlikely chance all three hands were ace holdings, my hand didn’t have much equity. It would take a six to win and a high card to counterfeit my opponents’ kickers just to split. Yeah, there was $440 in the pot, laying me 11-to-1, but the combination of plausible scenarios didn’t weigh well with my holding. Lots of cards would likely just get me into further trouble and cost me more money. And in the unlikely event an ace came, a split was almost certainly in the cards. I tossed my hand into the muck.

The turn card came the 6, the ideal card for my hand. Or was it? If I had called, now I would be able to beat any ace, but also might end up paying off any three for two bets. Mark checked his hand, thereby indicating that he presumably didn’t have a three. Danny fired. Mark called. The river came the 2. Mark checked again and Danny fired one more barrel. Mark thought for a while and folded.

This was a strangely played hand, one I might have won had I stayed in. But at the point I folded, I had to be seriously concerned that Mark held a three. When he check/called the turn and check/folded the river, obviously he didn’t. Did Danny have a three or did he possess an ace? Maybe both?

Looking to learn something from the situation, I thought about Mark’s and Danny’s decisions and what they may have held. My thoughts had the benefit of knowing the A 6 were out of play, which Mark and Danny didn’t know. It was virtually indubitable that Mark had folded an ace on the river. There were no draws and it wasn’t a logical situation to bluff. And Mark is a very logical guy. That meant that Mark had an ace without a good enough kicker to call the river. He had called the turn with the thought that Danny likely held an ace and that a high card would likely be a split. But when Danny bet the river, Mark knew that Danny knew Mark held an ace and would bet only a hand that beat most of Mark’s range. That being true, Mark had the wisdom to fold and save a bet on the river, something many players wouldn’t be able to discipline themselves to do.

No one showed their hand on the river. To this day, none of us knows the exact holdings of the others. But I believe my read to be correct. Mark is much smarter than your average bear, and his fold on the river is an indication of why he is such a large winner. His ability to read the situation, and act on his read saved him a bet. Many players dismiss such situations in their minds and justify their bad payoffs with “I had to call; I had top pair” type of thoughts. Those players fail to realize that those bets add up considerably over time and have a large effect on their end of year results.

If, at the point of decision I knew what I now know, I probably would have made a different play on the flop. But all I can do is make the best decision I can with the information available to me at the decision point. At that moment, I didn’t know that Mark didn’t have a three. A point that affected my thoughts in a big way. I’m still am comfortable with my decision to fold.

Additionally, I’m generally a pretty focused guy! In the over 60,000 hours I’ve played poker, I’ve learned oodles watching good players ply their trade at the poker table and thinking through their thinking after the hand. This not only grows my game from a knowledge perspective, but also helps me be a better hand reader. So pay attention. And think…You never know when you’re going to be faced with a questionable poker situation in which you’re going to want to have a good answer. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook.