Winning Poker Tournaments – Hand #12

Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume III by Jon “PearlJammer” Turner, Eric “Rizen” Lynch, Jon “Apestyles” Van Fleet, and yours truly, analyzes 50 online poker hands. In Volume III, PearlJammer, Rizen, and Apestyles analyze the same hands and then I give a summary of lessons learned at the end of the hand. This article looks at hand #12.

Seat 1: Button: 330,296
Seat 2: Small Blind: 2,956,286
Seat 4: Big Blind: 1,922,090
Seat 5: 812,894
Seat 6: 2,040,894
Seat 7: Hero: 2,120,948
Seat 9: Cutoff: 694,592
40,000-80,000 Blinds, 10,000 Ante

Setup: This is hand #591 of a tournament that Matthew played. The villain played a hand in the big blind over 100 hands ago where he bet 84,000 on the turn into a 236,500 pot after all three players checked the flop, but he folded when another player raised. In another hand, the villain called a raise in the big blind and won the pot by leading out on a 9-9-7 board.

Preflop A 7 (190,000): You raise to 200,000, and Seat 4 calls.

Flop 10 5 3 (510,000): Seat 4 bets 160,000.

What do you do?

PearlJammer

Even though Seat 4 has led out several times in the past, I do not have strong enough evidence to feel certain that he’ll fold to a raise. Nonetheless, final table dynamics make this an extremely tempting spot to make a play at the pot even though I whiffed the flop. I have my opponent covered, and more importantly, Seats 1, 5, and 9 are all very short-stacked. The payout jumps at the final table are very substantial. The short stacks will probably bust out soon, and thus Seat 4 may be reluctant to get involved in a big pot from out of position.

If I raise, it should look like I’m either willing to play for my whole stack with at least top pair and a strong kicker, or like I’m bluffing. He may suspect a bluff, but he would be hard pressed to play for his entire stack. On such a dry board, he is unlikely to have a draw, and he probably would check a set. He certainly may have top pair, but his range probably includes a lot of air balls and pocket pairs below the ten. He would probably fold these hands to a raise, especially since I have seen him lead out from the big blind in some questionable spots in the past.

With 510,000 in the pot, he only led out for 160,000, meaning that if I raise to about 500,000, I get a good risk/reward ratio to win 670,000. I am by no means committing myself to the pot and would certainly fold to any further action (or check it down if he calls), however, my bet should appear strong and force him to make a big decision, especially when he factors in the short stacks and final table pay jumps. I raise to about 500,000.

Rizen

When players “donk bet,” or bet into the preflop raiser, it often signifies some sort of weak made hand or draw. Sophisticated players know this and will also donk bet with their really strong hands, but I don’t think we have enough information about this opponent to believe he is capable of that.

The fact that he’s previously bet a small amount in relation to the pot and then folded, combined with the typical strength of hand this play involves makes me believe that raising is highly profitable. Even though I’ll commit a large portion of my stack, raising will work often enough to justify the risk.

I would raise three times his bet to 480,000 and expect him to fold the vast majority of the time. If he shoves all in, I will fold, and if he flat calls, I am probably done with the hand too. If I happen to turn an ace or a spade I will most likely check behind; for pot control with an ace, or to take a free card if the turn is a spade.

Apestyles

At final tables of major tournaments, with several short stacks in grave danger of busting, I’ll usually opt for the aggressive line against inexperienced players. I would not fold to a bet of less than a third of the pot.

There’s nothing wrong with just calling or “floating” his bet, since I may have the best hand and can possibly take the pot away on a later street. But I think Seat 4 has a small piece of this extremely dry, uncoordinated board, and is trying to reach the showdown cheaply with a “probe” bet. I’d rather pressure him to fold hands that beat mine than play into his game and let him see a showdown. There’s a slight chance he has a set, but that’s an extremely small part of his range, and there are no probable two-pair combinations or draws. Since I’ve determined that Seat 4’s range is weak, I prefer raising his goofy bet to around 450,000, planning to fire another bet on most turns. I put him on middle-strength hands that won’t stand pressure. If I don’t plan on betting a lot of turns, then a larger raise to around 525,000 is preferable to discourage him from calling the flop.

Matthew

Another thing I have learned from these three is to pay more attention to how the stack dynamics affect players’ strategies at the final table, even when those stacks are not involved in the hand. In this case, PearlJammer and Apestyles point out that there are three players with short stacks. The players with medium-to-big stacks do not want to bust out before the small stacks. Most players are reluctant to risk their stacks in marginal situations when there are other players about to bust in the tournament.

This hand is a perfect example of when to apply pressure to an opponent. There is some history that shows he will bet small and then fold. There are other players who will likely bust out shortly. A raise in this situation puts a lot of pressure on my opponent. He has to ask himself if he’s ready to commit his stack with 6-6, 5-5, A-5, or even A-10. My raise to 600,000 forces him to answer those questions. I raised and he folded. ♠

Matthew is the owner of Dimat Enterprises, which just released Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume III available at pokerbooks.InternetTexasHoldem.com in both print and e-book format.