Diverging Paths

In poker, there are many paths that can be taken in a hand, a session, or a tournament. Different paths lead to different outcomes and the littlest things could make the difference between a winning session and a losing one, cashing or not cashing in a tournament, cashing for small money or making the final table, etcetera.

I believe the butterfly effect is very prevalent in poker. If one person who wasn’t going to show up at the casino that day walks in and plays in the game you’re playing, it could have a very large effect on whether you win or lose that day. If someone who usually plays a hand one way plays it differently, it may change who wins or loses that pot and, subsequently, it might change your state of mind and whether you have a good or bad session. It’s something I think about often and when someone tells me they didn’t play a tournament I ended up doing well in, I always thank them because it may have changed the millions of tiny variables that resulted in my doing well. Perhaps this is my one allotted area of superstition or perhaps it’s just truth, I’m not really sure.

In the most recent tournament I played, the Legends of Poker main event at the Bicycle Casino in Los Angeles, I played a hand late on day one that had a large effect on how I did in the tournament and I’m not sure if I could or should have played it differently, or if I did play it differently, how things would have worked out for me in the end.

It was the last level of the day with blinds of 400-800 with a 100 ante. I raised four off the button at a full table with K J to 1,800. Here is our first possible divergence. There are some people who really hate this hand and would just fold it. I was relatively new to the table with only a few other people there who I know play well. I feel like it’s a plus expected value (EV) hand to play in this situation and I raised. David “ODB” Baker called in the cutoff and the big blind called.

The flop was J 9 6. The big blind checked and I have reached another divergence point. I have flopped a pretty good hand but one that I am not super excited to play a huge pot with. I don’t mind too many overcards coming on the turn since a king gives me two pair and I can just continue to keep the pot small if a queen or ace comes off. There is a flush draw on the flop, but I hold the king of that suit, so if a flush card comes on the turn and I get led into, I have a pretty good bluff-catching hand that can improve to the second nuts. Also, I check quite a few flops that I miss in three-way pots so it would be a decent spot for me to do so with a medium-to-high strength hand with not much worry about what cards come off on the turn. Finally, I get more information because I get to find out what David Baker is going to do with his hand. Betting is my default play here and is good because it gets more money into the pot when I have the likely best hand and lends credence to my bets with air when I bet top pair or better on the flop. I bet 3,300. David folds and the other opponent calls.

The turn is the K. My opponent has checked in the dark and I have another path to consider. At first blush, my hand looks like a monster, but one that needs to be protected. There are now 2 flush draws out there and hands like K-Q, Q-J, J-T, and T-9 have improved to gain more outs against me. I get value from all of these hands but I clearly never make a better hand fold. So, is there some merit to checking behind in this situation? I think against a very soft field it would make sense because I want to save my big pots for hands that more closely approach the nuts early on in the tournament. Though there were some good tables, this was not a soft field. In addition, I have a hand that can improve to the nuts or near nuts about 10 percent of the time. Looking back, I think it’s pretty close, but in game I thought it was a bet and as a result I fired 7,600 and my opponent thought for a while before making it 25,000 with 20,000 behind. I have my opponent covered by about 40,000. What can I do now? I think that my opponent’s range looks something like this: K-J, 6-6, 9-9, Q-10, pair and combo draw hands like J 10 and 10 9, K-6, and A Q or A Q. Against this reasonably tight range, I’m about a 70-to-30 dog. After my opponent’s bet there is 28,500 in the pot (1,800 times three preflop, plus the 400 small blind, 900 in antes; 3,300 times two on the flop, and 7,600 times two on the turn) and if we get all the money in there, it’s another 37,400, so only about 1.3-to-1. I’m clearly not getting the right price with a range this tight, so it probably should have been a fold, though I think it’s pretty tough to find a fold with top two on such a draw-heavy board in the heat of battle. My opponent had Q 10 and I lost the 130 big blind pot.

The great thing about having tools like Poker Stove at your disposal is that you can look back on important moments like this in your day and get a clearer picture of what to expect when you’re up against a certain range so that the next time you’re faced with diverging paths, you can take the right one. ♠

Gavin Griffin was the first poker player to capture a World Series of Poker, European Poker Tour and World Poker Tour title and has amassed nearly $5 million in lifetime tournament winnings. Griffin is sponsored by HeroPoker.com. You can follow him on Twitter @NHGG