Winning Poker Tournaments – Hand #43

Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume III by Jon “PearlJammer” Turner, Eric “Rizen” Lynch, Jon “Apestyles” Van Fleet, and yours truly, analyzes 50 online poker hands. In Volume III, PearlJammer, Rizen, and Apestyles analyze the same hands and then I give a summary of lessons learned at the end of the hand. This article looks at hand #43.

Seat 1 Small Blind: 120,223
Seat 2 Big Blind (Hero): 152,190
Seat 3 Under-the-gun: 147,358
Seat 4 Cutoff: 109,986
Seat 5 Button: 76,743

1,400-2,800 Blinds, 350 Ante

Setup: This hand was submitted by Rizen who is the hero. You are at the final table of a $50 one rebuy/one add-on tournament. It’s been a unique situation in that players busted so fast in this tournament that they’re all much deeper stacked than most final tables. First place is $5,500 and sixth is $700.

Preflop: 9 8 (5,950): The action is folded to the small blind, who raises to 7,000.

What do you do?

PearlJammer

In position, blind versus blind, with relatively deep stacks, I do not like to fold any playable hand to a small raise. Although 9-8 offsuit is not a great hand, it is certainly playable in this spot. I call.

Rizen

I have great odds (the pot is now 12,950 and I only have to call 4,200) to call. I also have position on this player postflop, and the stacks are fairly deep. Thus if I do hit my hand, it should be nicely concealed, and I can win a big pot. If I don’t, I still may be able to use position, along with the implied threat of knocking the player out, to take the pot away. I call.

Apestyles

I am the table chip leader (though not by much) at a final table. I’ve got a medium connector in the big blind, and the small blind raises to 2.5 times the big blind. I’m not in the habit of folding my big blind to small raises from the small blind very often. I have my opponent covered, a deep effective stack, and position. I either call or three-bet to around 17,000-20,000.

Action: You call.

Flop: A 5 2 (15,750): The small blind checks.

What do you do?

PearlJammer

I have whiffed the flop. However, I have the advantage of position, and my opponent showed weakness by checking. I doubt my opponent would have checked an ace with a flush draw on board, and he probably would have bet if he had a flush draw himself. I should make a small bet, knowing that my opponent may call somewhat light because of the size of the bet, but I should know that I am planning to fire at least one more shell to try to win the pot. If I am not willing to fire multiple shells in a blind versus blind hand postflop, then I should either make a larger bet on the flop in an effort to get more folds, or I shouldn’t bother trying to steal at all and just take a free card. I bet about 7,500.

Rizen

I completely miss the flop. That being said, if my opponent doesn’t have an ace, it will be extremely hard for him to continue with this hand if I apply any sort of pressure. Surprisingly, he checks, and since he has shown weakness, I decide to apply pressure and bet 9,555.

Apestyles

Most players will make a continuation bet on this board with all of their air because very few of my hands connect with it or even have any chance of improving, and the villain can easily represent an ace. Therefore, when my opponent checks, he usually has a pair sixes through kings, is trapping, or is trying to control the pot size with a weak ace. He could even be laying a trap with a monster hand. I don’t expect the villain to fold to one bet very often. I should either check, with the intention of giving up, or plan on running a multi-street bluff. Because people get very stubborn in blind versus blind situations, and because I can’t represent strong aces due to the fact that I did not reraise, I choose to just check and give up this pot – even though I hate conceding pots.

Action: You bet 9,555, and your opponent calls.

Turn: Q (34,860): The small blind checks.

What do you do?

PearlJammer

Because I expect my opponent to have led out with an ace or a flush draw, and I bet relatively small on the flop, I must follow through with my plan and fire another bullet. The queen is not likely to have helped him. I expect him to have a middle pocket pair, or perhaps a 5, and fold with two overcards now on board facing a second bet with the potential of a third on the river. I bet 17,450, or about half the pot.

Rizen

So the villain raised small preflop, then check-/called an ace-high flop with two hearts. I believe this indicates a very narrow range, including either very strong hands like a set or a big ace, or very mediocre hands like heart draws and low pocket pairs that didn’t hit a set. These would include 3-3 or 4-4 (and have a straight draw, too), and 6-6 through 9-9. This board has a lot of potential draws, so I think it’s unlikely he would have given me such a good calling price as a trap with hands like 5-5 and 2-2. Given the board, I feel his range is very heavily weighted towards mediocre hands and draws and does not contain very many big hands. The Q is an excellent card on which to bet (again) because if he does have a hand like 6-6 or 8-8, it’s even tougher for him to call a second barrel with two overcards on the board. He checks to me again, so I bet again, planning to shut down on the river. I bet 24,955.

Apestyles

If you bet the flop, you have to bet the turn so that pocket pairs will fold. I’d bet between 18,000 and 22,000. This might work occasionally, but I consider it a low-percentage play. If it works, I’d consider it the poker equivalent of Shaquille O’Neal hitting a jump shot: sometimes it works, but there are better spots!

Matthew

When you decide to bluff, you need to have a plan for future streets. In this case, both PearlJammer and Apestyles point out that if you are going to bet the flop, you must be prepared to fire at least another bullet on the turn. Always have a plan. Players often make plays without thinking ahead to how their choices may affect their options on future streets. What if your opponent raises? What if he calls? What if another heart comes on the turn? Always look ahead and have a plan for how the hand might play out.

Rizen bet 24,955, and his opponent folded. ♠

Matthew is the owner of Dimat Enterprises, which just released Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume III available at pokerbooks.InternetTexasHoldem.com in both print and e-book format.